Atitudes antidemocráticas, a lacuna entre vencedores e perdedores e a ascensão da esquerda no México
Resumo O fraco apoio às normas e instituições democráticas representa desafios significativos para a sobrevivência democrática. Uma premissa fundamental em estudos de opinião pública é que os cidadãos responsabilizam os políticos pelo respeito às normas democráticas. O presente estudo examina as atitudes dos cidadãos em relação à democracia no México, com foco nas eleições de 2018 como um momento crítico, quando Andrés Manuel López Obrador (MORENA) venceu a eleição presidencial em sua terceira tentativa. Com base em dados do Barômetro das Américas da LAPOP (2012-2019), descobrimos que, em consonância com a literatura sobre a lacuna entre perdedores e vencedores, os apoiadores do Presidente López Obrador aumentaram sua satisfação com a democracia após as eleições de 2018. No entanto, ao contrário da maioria dos eleitores que escolheram os vencedores das eleições, eles não se tornaram mais comprometidos com a democracia. Em alguns casos, após 2018, os eleitores de AMLO são mais propensos do que outros grupos partidários a apoiar intervenções antidemocráticas, especialmente o apoio a um golpe em momentos de alta criminalidade. Os resultados deste estudo contribuem para nossa compreensão da lacuna entre vencedores e perdedores no contexto da erosão democrática no México. Embora os resultados deste artigo se baseiem em evidências exploratórias, eles destacam que uma parte importante dos eleitores está disposta a sacrificar a democracia e apoiar ações iliberais e partidárias que minam a democracia.
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Blais, A., & Gelineau, F. (2007). Winning, losing and satisfaction with democracy. Political Studies, 55(2), 425-441.
Blais, A., Morin-Chassé, A., & Singh, S. P. (2017). Election outcomes, legislative representation, and satisfaction with democracy. Party Politics, 23(2), 85-95.
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Carey, J., Clayton, K., Helmke, G., Nyhan, B., Sanders, M., & Stokes, S. (2022). Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 32(1), 230-245.
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Curini L, Jou, W. and Memoli, V. (2012) Satisfaction with democracy and the winner-loser debate: The role of policy preferences and past experience. British Journal of Political Science, 42(2): 241–261.
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Kitschelt, H., and S. I. Wilkinson, eds. 2007. Patrons, clients and policies: Patterns of democratic accountability and political competition. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
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Singh, S. P., Karakoç, E., and Blais, A. (2012) Differentiating winners: How elections affect satisfaction with democracy. Electoral Studies 31(1): 201–211.
Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), 20-32.
Touchton, M., Klofstad, C., and Uscinski, J. (2020). Does partisanship promote anti-democratic impulses? Evidence from a survey experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 1-13
Ugues Jr., A., & Vidal, D. (2015). Public Evaluations of Electoral Institutions in Mexico: An Analysis of the IFE and TRIFE in the 2006 and 2012 Elections. Electoral Studies, 40, 231-244.
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Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zechmeister, E. J., & N. Lupu (2019). Pulse of democracy. Latin American Public Opinion Project.
Aguilar Rivera, J. A. 2022. «Dinámicas de la autocratización: México 2021». Revista de ciencia política, 42(2): 355-382.
Albertus, M., and G. Grossman. 2021. «The Americas: When Do Voters Support Power Grabs?». Journal of Democracy, 32(2): 116-131.
Almond, Gabriel A. and Sidney Verba. 1963. The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in seven nations. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Anderson, C. J., & Tverdova, Y. V. 2003. «Corruption, political allegiances, and attitudes toward government in contemporary democracies». American Journal of Political Science 47: 91-109.
Anderson, C. J., A. Blais, S. Bowler, T. Donovan, and O. Listhaug. 2005. Losers' Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. Oxford University Press.
Aparicio, J. (2009). Análisis estadístico de la elección presidencial de 2006: ¿Fraude o errores aleatorios?. Política y gobierno, 16(spe2), 225-243.
Aparicio, F. J., & Cornejo, R. C. (2020). Elecciones 2018. Una coyuntura histórica en México. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Bartels, L. M. (2000). Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952–1996. American Journal of Political Science.
Beltrán, U., Ley, S., and Cornejo, R. C., 2020. Estudio Nacional Electoral (CIDE-CSES) 2018. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
Bernhard, M., Nordstrom, T., Reenock, C., 2001. Economic performance, institutional intermediation, and democratic survival. Journal of Politics, 63 (3), 775e803.
Blais, A., & Gelineau, F. (2007). Winning, losing and satisfaction with democracy. Political Studies, 55(2), 425-441.
Blais, A., Morin-Chassé, A., & Singh, S. P. (2017). Election outcomes, legislative representation, and satisfaction with democracy. Party Politics, 23(2), 85-95.
Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (2002). Democracy, institutions, and attitudes about citizen influence on government. British Journal of Political Science, 32(2), 371-390.
Bruhn, K. 2012. «‘To hell with your corrupt institutions!’: AMLO and populism in Mexico». Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy: 88-112.
Cantú, F., & Garcia-Ponce, O. (2015). Partisan losers' effects: Perceptions of electoral integrity in Mexico. Electoral Studies, 39, 1-14.
Carey, J., Clayton, K., Helmke, G., Nyhan, B., Sanders, M., & Stokes, S. (2022). Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 32(1), 230-245.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2019. «Partisanship and question-wording effects: experimental evidence from Latin America», Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 26-45.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2023. «The AMLO Voter: Affective Polarization and the Rise of the Left in Mexico», Journal of Politics in Latin America, p.1866802X221147067.
Castro Cornejo, R., S. Ley, and U. Beltrán. 2020. «Anger, Partisanship, and the Activation of Populist Attitudes in Mexico». Política y Gobierno, 27 (2).
Claassen, Christopher. 2020a. «Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?», American Journal of Political Science, 64(1): 118–34.
Cohen, M. J., Smith, A. E., Moseley, M. W., & Layton, M. L. (2023). Winners’ consent? Citizen commitment to democracy when illiberal candidates win elections. American Journal of Political Science, 67(2), 261-276.
Curini L, Jou, W. and Memoli, V. (2012) Satisfaction with democracy and the winner-loser debate: The role of policy preferences and past experience. British Journal of Political Science, 42(2): 241–261.
Dahl, Robert A. 1956. A Preface to Democratic Theory. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Druckman, J. N., & Levendusky, M. S. (2019). What do we measure when we measure affective polarization? Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 114-122.
Dussauge-Laguna, M. I. (2021). ‘Doublespeak Populism’ and Public Administration: The Case of Mexico. Democratic backsliding and public administration, 178-199.
Flores-Macías, G. A. 2018. «Mexico’s PRI: The Resilience of an Authoritarian Successor Party and Its Consequences for Democracy». In Loxton, J., and S. Mainwaring (Eds.). Life After Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 257-283.
Graham, M. H., & Svolik, M. W. (2020). Democracy in America? Partisanship, polarization, and the robustness of support for democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 392-409.
Helmke, G. and S. Levitsky. 2006. Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons from Latin America. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
INEGI (2021) Encuesta Nacional de Cultura Cívica 2020, ENCUCI. México: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.
Kitschelt, H. 1992. «The formation of party systems in East Central Europe.« Politics & Society 20 (1): 7–50.
Kitschelt, H., and S. I. Wilkinson, eds. 2007. Patrons, clients and policies: Patterns of democratic accountability and political competition. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Langston, J. K. (2017). Democratization and authoritarian party survival: Mexico's PRI. Oxford University Press.
Langston, J. (2020). ¿Por qué los partidos hacen trampa? Cambios en las normas electorales en México después de la democratización. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. (2018). How democracies die. New York: Broadway Books.
Linz, Juan, and Alfred Stepan. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lippman, W. 1925. The Phantom Public. Transaction Publishers.
Mainwaring, S., 2006. The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy, 17 (3), 13-27.
Mainwaring, Scott. (2018). Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Maldonado, A. and M. Seligson (2014). «Electoral Trust in Latin America,« in Advancing electoral integrity, New York: Oxford University Press, 229–245.
Moehler, D. C. (2009). Critical citizens and submissive subjects: Election losers and winners in Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 39(2), 345-366.
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. 2023. Happy Winners, Sore Partisans? Political Trust, Partisanship, and the Populist Assault on Electoral Integrity in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(1), 72-95
Monsiváis Carrillo, A. (2023). Populismo, repertorios autoritarios y subversión de la democracia. Revista mexicana de sociología, 85(SPE2), 11-38.
Norris, P. (Ed.). (1999). Critical citizens: Global support for democratic government. OUP Oxford.
Petersen, G., and Somuano, F. 2021. «¿Desdemocratización mexicana? Pandemia, hiperpresidencialismo e intentos por reconstruir un sistema de partido dominante». Revista de ciencia política, 41(2), 353-376.
Sánchez Talanquer, M. 2020. «Mexico 2019: Personalistic Politics and Neoliberalism from the Left». Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2).
Sánchez-Talanquer, M., and K. F. Greene. 2021. «Is Mexico Falling into the Authoritarian Trap?». Journal of Democracy, 32(4), 56-71.
Sarsfield, R. Entre el pueblo bueno y la élite corrupta. Narrativa populista y polarización afectiva en las redes sociales en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (35).
Singer, M. (2018). Delegating away democracy: how good representation and policy successes can undermine democratic legitimacy. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1754-1788.
Singh, S. P. (2014) Not all election winners are equal: Satisfaction with democracy and the nature of the vote. European Journal of Political Research 53(2): 308–327.
Singh, S. P., Karakoç, E., and Blais, A. (2012) Differentiating winners: How elections affect satisfaction with democracy. Electoral Studies 31(1): 201–211.
Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), 20-32.
Touchton, M., Klofstad, C., and Uscinski, J. (2020). Does partisanship promote anti-democratic impulses? Evidence from a survey experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 1-13
Ugues Jr., A., & Vidal, D. (2015). Public Evaluations of Electoral Institutions in Mexico: An Analysis of the IFE and TRIFE in the 2006 and 2012 Elections. Electoral Studies, 40, 231-244.
Villanueva Ulfgard, Rebecka (2023). López Obrador’s hyper-presidentialism: populism and autocratic legalism defying the Supreme Court and the National Electoral Institute, The International Journal of Human Rights,
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zechmeister, E. J., & N. Lupu (2019). Pulse of democracy. Latin American Public Opinion Project.
Castro Cornejo, R., & Langston, J. (2023). Atitudes antidemocráticas, a lacuna entre vencedores e perdedores e a ascensão da esquerda no México. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 179–202. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31414
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