Do (Perceptions of) Electoral Polling Affect Voters' Behavior? Campaigns, Partisan Bias, and Strategic Voting
Abstract The manuscript highlights the major role that partisanship plays in moderating voters’ interpretation of polling information and incentives to behave strategically. While prior studies highlight that partisans are less likely to vote strategically as the expressive costs of defection increase, this study sheds light on the conditions in which voters—even partisans—behave strategically and which contribute to an increase in the proportion of voters who change their vote intention during campaigns. Only partisans informed about polls are able to overcome their partisan bias and engage in strategic voting. By taking strategic voting into account in the study of campaigns, the present work builds a bridge between the campaigns effects literature and studies on strategic voting.
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Abramowitz, A. I., & Webster, S. W. (2018). Negative partisanship: Why Americans dislike parties but behave like rabid partisans. Political Psychology, 39, 119-135. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12479
Abramson, P., Aldrich, J., Paolino, P., & Rohde, D. (1992). «Sophisticated» Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries. American Political Science Review, 86(1), 55-69. doi:10.2307/1964015
Abramson, P. R., Aldrich, J. H., Blais, A., Diamond, M., Diskin, A., Indridason, I. H., Lee, D. J. & Levine, R. (2010). Comparing strategic voting under FPTP and PR. Comparative Political Studies, 43(1), 61-90. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009341717
Aldrich, J., Blais, A., & Stevenson, L. B. (2018). Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World. University of Michigan Press. doi:10.1017/S000712340000003X
Alvarez, R. M., & Nagler, J. (2000). A new approach for modelling strategic voting in multiparty elections. British Journal of Political Science, 30(1), 57-75. doi:10.1017/S000712340000003X
Alvarez, R. M., Boehmke, F. J., & Nagler, J. (2006). Strategic voting in British elections. Electoral Studies, 25(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.02.008
Ansolabehere, S., & Iyengar, S. (1994). Of horseshoes and horse races: Experimental studies of the impact of poll results on electoral behavior. Political Communication, 11(4), 413-430. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.1994.9963048
Atkin, C. K., & Gaudino, J. (1984). The impact of polling on the mass media. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 472(1), 119-128. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716284472001011
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Renno, L. R. (2006). Social context and campaign volatility in new democracies: networks and neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 382-399. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00190.x
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Rennó, L. (2020). Persuasive peers: social communication and voting in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
Baker, A., & Renno, L. (2019). Nonpartisans as false negatives: the mismeasurement of party identification in public opinion surveys. The Journal of Politics, 81(3), 906-922. https://doi.org/10.1086/703129
Baker, A., Sokhey, A. E., Ames, B., & Renno, L. R. (2016). The dynamics of partisan identification when party brands change: the case of the Workers Party in Brazil. The Journal of Politics, 78(1), 197-213. https://doi.org/10.1086/683609
Bartels, L. M. (1988). Presidential primaries and the dynamics of public choice. Princeton University Press.
Beltrán, U., Ley, S., & Cornejo, R. C. (2020). Estudio Nacional Electoral (CIDE-CSES) 2018. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
Berelson, B. R., Lazarsfeld, P. F., & McPhee, W. N. (1986). Voting: A study of opinion formation in a presidential campaign. University of Chicago Press.
Blais, A. (2002). Why is there so little strategic voting in Canadian plurality rule elections? Political Studies, 50(3), 445-454. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00378
Blais, A., & Bodet, M. A. (2006). How do voters form expectations about the parties’ chances of winning the election? Social Science Quarterly, 87(3), 477-493. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2006.00392.x
Blais, A., & Turgeon, M. (2004). How good are voters at sorting out the weakest candidate in their constituency? Electoral Studies, 23(3), 455-461. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(03)00031-3
Blais, A., Nadeau, R., Gidengil, E., & Nevitte, N. (2001). Measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality elections. Electoral Studies, 20(3), 343-352. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(00)00017-2
Blais, A., Young, R., & Turcotte, M. (2005). Direct or indirect? Assessing two approaches to the measurement of strategic voting. Electoral Studies, 24(2), 163-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2004.03.001
Blais, A., Loewen, P. J., Rubenson, D., Stephenson, L. B., & Gidengil, E. (2018). Information on party strength and strategic voting. The many faces of strategic voting, 89-103.
Boudreau, C., & McCubbins, M. D. (2010). The blind leading the blind: Who gets polling information and does it improve decisions? The Journal of Politics, 72(2), 513-527. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609990946
Brady, H. E., Johnston, R. G., & Johnston, R. (Eds.). (2006). Capturing campaign effects. University of Michigan Press.
Broh, C. A. (1980). Horse-race journalism: Reporting the polls in the 1976 presidential election. Public Opinion Quarterly, 44(4), 514-529. https://doi.org/10.1086/268620
Bruhn, K. (1999). The resurrection of the Mexican left in the 1997 elections: implications for the party system. Toward Mexico’s Democratizations: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion, Routledge, 88.
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1980). The american voter. University of Chicago Press.
Castro Cornejo, R. (2019). Partisanship and question-wording effects: experimental evidence from Latin America. Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 26-45. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz006
Castro Cornejo, R. (2019). Do Campaigns Matter (in New Democracies)? Campaign Interest, Vote Choice and Survey Satisficing. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 8(1), 83-126. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22343
Castro Cornejo, R. (2021). How do campaigns matter? Independents, political information, and the enlightening role of campaigns in Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 33(4), 779-798. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa029
Cornejo, R. C. (2021). Short-and Long-Term Partisanship: Campaign Effects and the Stability of Party Identification in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 56(2), 300-317. doi:10.25222/larr.638
Ceci, S. J., & Kain, E. L. (1982). Jumping on the bandwagon with the underdog: The impact of attitude polls on polling behavior. Public opinion quarterly, 46(2), 228-242. https://doi.org/10.1086/268715
Chatterjee, S., & Kamal, J. (2021). Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban. Public Choice, 188(3), 431-453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00837-y
Cox, G. W. (1997). Making votes count: strategic coordination in the world’s electoral systems. Cambridge University Press.
Crespi, I. (1988). Pre-election polling: Sources of accuracy and error. Russell Sage Foundation.
Daoust, J. F. (2015). Vote stratégique au Québec: analyse de l’élection de 2012. Politique et sociétés, 34(2), 3-15. https://doi.org/10.7202/1032504ar CopiedAn error has occurred
Daoust, J. F., & Bol, D. (2020). Polarization, partisan preferences and strategic voting. Government and Opposition, 55(4), 578-594. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.42
Domínguez, J., «Introduction», In Domínguez, J. I., Lawson, C. H., & Moreno, A. (Eds.). (2009). Consolidating Mexico’s democracy: The 2006 presidential campaign in comparative perspective. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper.
Finkel, S. E. (1993). Reexamining the» minimal effects» model in recent presidential campaigns. The Journal of Politics, 55(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/2132225
Flores-Macías, F. 2009. «Electoral Volatility in 2006» In Domínguez, J. I., Lawson, C. H., & Moreno, A. (Eds.). (2009). Consolidating Mexico’s democracy: The 2006 presidential campaign in comparative perspective. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Flores-Macías, G. A. (2018). in Mainwaring S. and Loxton J. (Eds.). Life after Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge University Press.
Gelman, A., & King, G. (1993). Why are American presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? British Journal of Political Science, 23(4), 409-451. doi:10.1017/S0007123400006682
Gschwend, T. (2007). Ticket splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany. European Journal of Political Research, 46(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00641.x
Greene, K. F. (2011). Campaign persuasion and nascent partisanship in Mexico’s new democracy. American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 398-416. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00497.x
Hamlin, A., & Jennings, C. (2011). Expressive political behaviour: Foundations, scope and implications. British Journal of Political Science, 41(3), 645-670. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123411000020
Hardy, B. W., & Jamieson, K. H. (2005). Can a poll affect perception of candidate traits? Public Opinion Quarterly, 69(5), 725-743. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfi067
Iyengar, S., & Krupenkin, M. (2018). The strengthening of partisan affect. Political Psychology, 39, 201-218. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12487
Kaplan, N., Park, D. K., & Gelman, A. (2012). Polls and elections understanding persuasion and activation in presidential campaigns: The random walk and mean reversion models. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(4), 843-866. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2012.04021.x
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Langston, J. K. (2017). Democratization and authoritarian party survival: Mexico’s PRI. Oxford University Press.
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Lawson, C., & McCann, J. (2005). Television News, Mexico’s 2000 Elections and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies. British Journal of Political Science, 35(1), 1-30. doi:10.1017/S0007123405000013
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Tien, C. (1999). Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(2), 175-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00063-6
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Alvarez, R. M., Boehmke, F. J., & Nagler, J. (2006). Strategic voting in British elections. Electoral Studies, 25(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.02.008
Ansolabehere, S., & Iyengar, S. (1994). Of horseshoes and horse races: Experimental studies of the impact of poll results on electoral behavior. Political Communication, 11(4), 413-430. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.1994.9963048
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Baker, A., Ames, B., & Renno, L. R. (2006). Social context and campaign volatility in new democracies: networks and neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 382-399. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00190.x
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Rennó, L. (2020). Persuasive peers: social communication and voting in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
Baker, A., & Renno, L. (2019). Nonpartisans as false negatives: the mismeasurement of party identification in public opinion surveys. The Journal of Politics, 81(3), 906-922. https://doi.org/10.1086/703129
Baker, A., Sokhey, A. E., Ames, B., & Renno, L. R. (2016). The dynamics of partisan identification when party brands change: the case of the Workers Party in Brazil. The Journal of Politics, 78(1), 197-213. https://doi.org/10.1086/683609
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Beltrán, U., Ley, S., & Cornejo, R. C. (2020). Estudio Nacional Electoral (CIDE-CSES) 2018. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
Berelson, B. R., Lazarsfeld, P. F., & McPhee, W. N. (1986). Voting: A study of opinion formation in a presidential campaign. University of Chicago Press.
Blais, A. (2002). Why is there so little strategic voting in Canadian plurality rule elections? Political Studies, 50(3), 445-454. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00378
Blais, A., & Bodet, M. A. (2006). How do voters form expectations about the parties’ chances of winning the election? Social Science Quarterly, 87(3), 477-493. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2006.00392.x
Blais, A., & Turgeon, M. (2004). How good are voters at sorting out the weakest candidate in their constituency? Electoral Studies, 23(3), 455-461. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(03)00031-3
Blais, A., Nadeau, R., Gidengil, E., & Nevitte, N. (2001). Measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality elections. Electoral Studies, 20(3), 343-352. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(00)00017-2
Blais, A., Young, R., & Turcotte, M. (2005). Direct or indirect? Assessing two approaches to the measurement of strategic voting. Electoral Studies, 24(2), 163-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2004.03.001
Blais, A., Loewen, P. J., Rubenson, D., Stephenson, L. B., & Gidengil, E. (2018). Information on party strength and strategic voting. The many faces of strategic voting, 89-103.
Boudreau, C., & McCubbins, M. D. (2010). The blind leading the blind: Who gets polling information and does it improve decisions? The Journal of Politics, 72(2), 513-527. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609990946
Brady, H. E., Johnston, R. G., & Johnston, R. (Eds.). (2006). Capturing campaign effects. University of Michigan Press.
Broh, C. A. (1980). Horse-race journalism: Reporting the polls in the 1976 presidential election. Public Opinion Quarterly, 44(4), 514-529. https://doi.org/10.1086/268620
Bruhn, K. (1999). The resurrection of the Mexican left in the 1997 elections: implications for the party system. Toward Mexico’s Democratizations: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion, Routledge, 88.
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1980). The american voter. University of Chicago Press.
Castro Cornejo, R. (2019). Partisanship and question-wording effects: experimental evidence from Latin America. Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 26-45. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz006
Castro Cornejo, R. (2019). Do Campaigns Matter (in New Democracies)? Campaign Interest, Vote Choice and Survey Satisficing. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 8(1), 83-126. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22343
Castro Cornejo, R. (2021). How do campaigns matter? Independents, political information, and the enlightening role of campaigns in Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 33(4), 779-798. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa029
Cornejo, R. C. (2021). Short-and Long-Term Partisanship: Campaign Effects and the Stability of Party Identification in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 56(2), 300-317. doi:10.25222/larr.638
Ceci, S. J., & Kain, E. L. (1982). Jumping on the bandwagon with the underdog: The impact of attitude polls on polling behavior. Public opinion quarterly, 46(2), 228-242. https://doi.org/10.1086/268715
Chatterjee, S., & Kamal, J. (2021). Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban. Public Choice, 188(3), 431-453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00837-y
Cox, G. W. (1997). Making votes count: strategic coordination in the world’s electoral systems. Cambridge University Press.
Crespi, I. (1988). Pre-election polling: Sources of accuracy and error. Russell Sage Foundation.
Daoust, J. F. (2015). Vote stratégique au Québec: analyse de l’élection de 2012. Politique et sociétés, 34(2), 3-15. https://doi.org/10.7202/1032504ar CopiedAn error has occurred
Daoust, J. F., & Bol, D. (2020). Polarization, partisan preferences and strategic voting. Government and Opposition, 55(4), 578-594. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.42
Domínguez, J., «Introduction», In Domínguez, J. I., Lawson, C. H., & Moreno, A. (Eds.). (2009). Consolidating Mexico’s democracy: The 2006 presidential campaign in comparative perspective. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper.
Finkel, S. E. (1993). Reexamining the» minimal effects» model in recent presidential campaigns. The Journal of Politics, 55(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/2132225
Flores-Macías, F. 2009. «Electoral Volatility in 2006» In Domínguez, J. I., Lawson, C. H., & Moreno, A. (Eds.). (2009). Consolidating Mexico’s democracy: The 2006 presidential campaign in comparative perspective. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Flores-Macías, G. A. (2018). in Mainwaring S. and Loxton J. (Eds.). Life after Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge University Press.
Gelman, A., & King, G. (1993). Why are American presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? British Journal of Political Science, 23(4), 409-451. doi:10.1017/S0007123400006682
Gschwend, T. (2007). Ticket splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany. European Journal of Political Research, 46(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00641.x
Greene, K. F. (2011). Campaign persuasion and nascent partisanship in Mexico’s new democracy. American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 398-416. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00497.x
Hamlin, A., & Jennings, C. (2011). Expressive political behaviour: Foundations, scope and implications. British Journal of Political Science, 41(3), 645-670. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123411000020
Hardy, B. W., & Jamieson, K. H. (2005). Can a poll affect perception of candidate traits? Public Opinion Quarterly, 69(5), 725-743. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfi067
Iyengar, S., & Krupenkin, M. (2018). The strengthening of partisan affect. Political Psychology, 39, 201-218. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12487
Kaplan, N., Park, D. K., & Gelman, A. (2012). Polls and elections understanding persuasion and activation in presidential campaigns: The random walk and mean reversion models. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(4), 843-866. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2012.04021.x
Kuklinski, J. H., & Hurley, N. L. (1994). On hearing and interpreting political messages: A cautionary tale of citizen cue-taking. The Journal of Politics, 56(3), 729-751. https://doi.org/10.2307/2132190
Langston, J. K. (2017). Democratization and authoritarian party survival: Mexico’s PRI. Oxford University Press.
Lau, R. R., & Redlawsk, D. P. (2001). Advantages and disadvantages of cognitive heuristics in political decision making. American journal of political science, 951-971. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669334
Lawson, C., & McCann, J. (2005). Television News, Mexico’s 2000 Elections and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies. British Journal of Political Science, 35(1), 1-30. doi:10.1017/S0007123405000013
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Tien, C. (1999). Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(2), 175-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00063-6
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Jacoby, W. G., Norpoth, H., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American voter revisited. University of Michigan Press.
Lupu, N. (2013). Party brands and partisanship: Theory with evidence from a survey experiment in Argentina. American Journal of Political Science, 57(1), 49-64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00615.x
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. University of Michigan Press. 226-244.
Magaloni, B., & Poiré, A. (2004). Strategic coordination in the 2000 Mexican presidential race. Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidates, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, Stanford University Press. 264-282.
Mainwaring, S. (2017). Latin American Party Systems: Institutionalization, Decay and Collapse in Mainwaring, S. Latin American Party Systems: Institutionalization, Decay and Collapse. Cambridge University Press
Meffert, M. F., & Gschwend, T. (2010). Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from Austria. Electoral Studies, 29(3), 339-349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.03.005
Meffert, M. F., Huber, S., Gschwend, T., & Pappi, F. U. (2011). More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions. Electoral Studies, 30(4), 804-815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.08.001
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