DO CAMPAIGNS MATTER (IN NEW DEMOCRACIES)? CAMPAIGN INTEREST, VOTE CHOICE, AND SURVEY SATISFICING
Abstract Based on data from presidential campaigns and original data from gubernatorial campaigns in Mexico, this paper finds that the proportion of respondents who provide consistent answers to the vote intention questions during the same survey interview increases as the campaign unfolds and interest in the campaign grows. These voters are less likely to connect their vote choice with their political predispositions and have a disproportionate likelihood to change their vote choice throughout the campaign. This gives the impression that campaigns are more consequential than they are, when, in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters’ increased motivation to engage in a survey interview.
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Baker, Andy; Barry Ames and Lucio Renno (2006). “Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 50: 382-99.
Bartels, Larry M. (1993). “Messages Received: The Political Impact of Media Exposure.” American Political Science Review, 267- 285.
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Converse, P. E. & G. B. Markus (1979). “Plus ça change...: The New CPS Election Study Panel.” The American Political Science Review, 73(1), 32-49.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Enns, Peter and Brian Richman (2013). “Presidential Campaigns and the Fundamentals Reconsidered.” Journal of Politics 75:803-20.
Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (2012). The Timeline of American Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
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Gilljam, Mikael and Donald Granberg (1993). “Should we take don’t know for an answer?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 57, 348- 357.
Greene, Kenneth (2011). ‘‘Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico’s New Democracy.’’ American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 398-416.
Hillygus, D. S. and S. Jackman (2003). “Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy,” American Journal of Political Science, 47(4): 583-596.
Holbrook, Thomas (1996). Do Campaigns Matter? Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Jackman, Simon (2005). ‘‘Pooling the Polls over an Election Campaign.’’ Australian Journal of Political Science 40(4): 499-517.
Johnston, R.; M. G. Hagen & K. H. Jamieson (2004). “The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics.” New York: Cambridge University Press.
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Lawson, Chappell and James McCann (2005). “Television Coverage, Media Effects, and Mexico’s 2000 Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 35(1): 1-30.
Lazarsfeld, Paul; Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet (1944). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press.
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Oppenheim, A. N. (1992). Questionnaire Design, Interviewing, and Attitude Measurement. London: Pinter.
Petrocik, John (2009). “Measuring Party Support: Leaners Are Not Independents.” Electoral Studies. 28: 562-72.
Rosenstone, Steven (1983). Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Schuman, H. and S. Presser (1981). Questions and Answers in Attitude Surveys. Experiments on Question Form, Wording, and Context. New York: Academic Press.
Shaw, Daron (2006). The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Stevenson, Randolph T. and Lynn Vavreck (2000). “Does Campaign Length Matter? Testing for Cross-National Effects.” British Journal of Political Science, 30: 217-35.
Vannette, David and John Krosnick (2014). “A Comparison of Survey Satisficing and Mindlessness.” The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Mindfulness, 1, 312.
Weisberg, Herbert F. (2005). The Total Survey Error Approach: a Guide to the New Science of Survey Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Weisberg, Herbert F.; Jon A. Krosnick; Bruce D. Bowen and Herbert F. Weisberg (1996). An introduction to survey research, polling, and data analysis. Thousand Oaks: California Sage Publications.
Wilson, T. D. & S. D. Hodges (1992). “Attitudes as Temporary Constructions.” In L. Martin and A. Tesser (eds.), The construction of social judgment (pp. 37-65). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Zaller, John (1996). The Myth of the Massive Media Impact Revisited: New Support for a Discredited Idea. Political Persuasion and Attitude Change.
Zaller, John R. and Stanley Feldman (1992). “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences.” American Journal of Political Science, 36: 579- 616.
Baker, Andy; Barry Ames and Lucio Renno (2006). “Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 50: 382-99.
Bartels, Larry M. (1993). “Messages Received: The Political Impact of Media Exposure.” American Political Science Review, 267- 285.
Berelson, Bernard; Paul Lazarsfeld and William McPhee (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes (1960). The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Campbell, James E. (2008). “The American Campaign: US Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote.” Vol. 6. Texas A&M University Press.
Converse, Philip (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. In Ideology and Discontent, ed. D. E. Apter. New York: Free Press.
Converse, P. E. & G. B. Markus (1979). “Plus ça change...: The New CPS Election Study Panel.” The American Political Science Review, 73(1), 32-49.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Enns, Peter and Brian Richman (2013). “Presidential Campaigns and the Fundamentals Reconsidered.” Journal of Politics 75:803-20.
Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (2012). The Timeline of American Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Feldman, S. (1989). “Measuring Issue Preferences: The Problem of Response Instability.” Political Analysis, 1, 25-60.
Fink, Arlene and Mark Litwin (1995). How to Measure Survey Reliability and Validity. Sage Research Methods.
Finkel, Steven (1993). “Reexamining the ‘Minimal Effects’ Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 55: 1-21.
Fiorina, M. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Gelman, Andrew and Gary King (eds.) (1993). “Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science 23: 409-51.
Gelman, Andrew; Sharad Goel; Douglas Rivers and David Rothschild (2016). The Mythical Swing Voter. Quarterly Journal of Political Science.
Gilljam, Mikael and Donald Granberg (1993). “Should we take don’t know for an answer?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 57, 348- 357.
Greene, Kenneth (2011). ‘‘Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico’s New Democracy.’’ American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 398-416.
Hillygus, D. S. and S. Jackman (2003). “Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy,” American Journal of Political Science, 47(4): 583-596.
Holbrook, Thomas (1996). Do Campaigns Matter? Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Jackman, Simon (2005). ‘‘Pooling the Polls over an Election Campaign.’’ Australian Journal of Political Science 40(4): 499-517.
Johnston, R.; M. G. Hagen & K. H. Jamieson (2004). “The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics.” New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kaplan, N.; D. K. Park and A. Gelman (2012). “Polls and Elections Understanding Persuasion and Activation in Presidential Campaigns: The Random Walk and Mean Reversion Models”, Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(4), 843-66.
Keith, Bruce E. et al. (1992) The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley. University of California Press.
Key, V. O. (1966). The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.
Krosnick, Jon (1991). “Response Strategies for Coping with the Cognitive Demands of Attitude Measures in Surveys.” Applied Cognitive Psychology 5:213-36.
Lavrakas P. J. (1987). Telephone Surveys Methods. Newbury Park, CA.: Sage.
Lawson, Chappell and James McCann (2005). “Television Coverage, Media Effects, and Mexico’s 2000 Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 35(1): 1-30.
Lazarsfeld, Paul; Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet (1944). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael and Tom Rice (1992). Forecasting Elections. Washington D.C.: CQ Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; William G. Jacoby; Helmut Norpoth and Herbert F. Weisberg (2008). The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Mainwaring, Scott (1999). Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: the Case of Brazil. Stanford University Press. Mainwaring, Scott & Scully, Timothy (1995). Building democratic institutions: Party systems in Latin America. Stanford University Press Stanford.
Mainwaring, Scott & Mariano Torcal (2006). Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory after the Third Wave of Democratization. Handbook of party politics, 204-27.
Mainwaring, Scott (ed.) (2016). Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay and Collapse. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Oppenheim, A. N. (1992). Questionnaire Design, Interviewing, and Attitude Measurement. London: Pinter.
Petrocik, John (2009). “Measuring Party Support: Leaners Are Not Independents.” Electoral Studies. 28: 562-72.
Rosenstone, Steven (1983). Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Schuman, H. and S. Presser (1981). Questions and Answers in Attitude Surveys. Experiments on Question Form, Wording, and Context. New York: Academic Press.
Shaw, Daron (2006). The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Stevenson, Randolph T. and Lynn Vavreck (2000). “Does Campaign Length Matter? Testing for Cross-National Effects.” British Journal of Political Science, 30: 217-35.
Vannette, David and John Krosnick (2014). “A Comparison of Survey Satisficing and Mindlessness.” The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Mindfulness, 1, 312.
Weisberg, Herbert F. (2005). The Total Survey Error Approach: a Guide to the New Science of Survey Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Weisberg, Herbert F.; Jon A. Krosnick; Bruce D. Bowen and Herbert F. Weisberg (1996). An introduction to survey research, polling, and data analysis. Thousand Oaks: California Sage Publications.
Wilson, T. D. & S. D. Hodges (1992). “Attitudes as Temporary Constructions.” In L. Martin and A. Tesser (eds.), The construction of social judgment (pp. 37-65). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Zaller, John (1996). The Myth of the Massive Media Impact Revisited: New Support for a Discredited Idea. Political Persuasion and Attitude Change.
Zaller, John R. and Stanley Feldman (1992). “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences.” American Journal of Political Science, 36: 579- 616.
Castro Cornejo, R. (2019). DO CAMPAIGNS MATTER (IN NEW DEMOCRACIES)? CAMPAIGN INTEREST, VOTE CHOICE, AND SURVEY SATISFICING. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 8(1), 83–126. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22343
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