Anti-Democratic Attitudes, the Winner-Loser Gap, and the Rise of the Left in Mexico
Abstract Weak support for democratic norms and institutions poses a serious challenge to the survival of democracy. Studies of public opinion often assume that citizens hold politicians accountable for respecting democratic norms. This study examines citizens’ attitudes toward democracy in Mexico. It focuses on the 2018 election as a critical juncture when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (MORENA) won the presidential election on his third attempt. Data from the LAPOP’s Americas Barometer (2012-2019) show that—consistent with the loser-winner gap literature —President López Obrador’s supporters increased their satisfaction with democracy after the 2018 election. However, unlike most voters who elected winners of elections, they did not become more committed to democracy. Even in some cases, after 2018, AMLO voters are more likely than other partisan groups to suppor t anti-democratic interventions, particularly support for a coup when crime is high. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the winner-loser gap in the context of Mexico’s democratic erosion. Although the results of this paper are based on exploratory evidence, they highlight that an important portion of voters is willing to sacrifice democracy and support their co-partisans’ actions that undermine democracy.
- Referencias
- Cómo citar
- Del mismo autor
- Métricas
Aguilar, R. (2018). Las coaliciones electorales de López Obrador a través del tiempo: variaciones sociales y políticas. A. Moreno, A. Uribe Coughlan, & S. C. Wals, El viraje electoral: Opinión pública y voto en las elecciones de, 57-74
Aguilar Rivera, J. A. 2022. «Dinámicas de la autocratización: México 2021». Revista de ciencia política, 42(2): 355-382.
Albertus, M., and G. Grossman. 2021. «The Americas: When Do Voters Support Power Grabs?». Journal of Democracy, 32(2): 116-131.
Almond, Gabriel A. and Sidney Verba. 1963. The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in seven nations. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Anderson, C. J., & Tverdova, Y. V. 2003. «Corruption, political allegiances, and attitudes toward government in contemporary democracies». American Journal of Political Science 47: 91-109.
Anderson, C. J., A. Blais, S. Bowler, T. Donovan, and O. Listhaug. 2005. Losers' Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. Oxford University Press.
Aparicio, J. (2009). Análisis estadístico de la elección presidencial de 2006: ¿Fraude o errores aleatorios?. Política y gobierno, 16(spe2), 225-243.
Aparicio, F. J., & Cornejo, R. C. (2020). Elecciones 2018. Una coyuntura histórica en México. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Bartels, L. M. (2000). Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952–1996. American Journal of Political Science.
Beltrán, U., Ley, S., and Cornejo, R. C., 2020. Estudio Nacional Electoral (CIDE-CSES) 2018. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
Bernhard, M., Nordstrom, T., Reenock, C., 2001. Economic performance, institutional intermediation, and democratic survival. Journal of Politics, 63 (3), 775e803.
Blais, A., & Gelineau, F. (2007). Winning, losing and satisfaction with democracy. Political Studies, 55(2), 425-441.
Blais, A., Morin-Chassé, A., & Singh, S. P. (2017). Election outcomes, legislative representation, and satisfaction with democracy. Party Politics, 23(2), 85-95.
Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (2002). Democracy, institutions, and attitudes about citizen influence on government. British Journal of Political Science, 32(2), 371-390.
Bruhn, K. 2012. «‘To hell with your corrupt institutions!’: AMLO and populism in Mexico». Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy: 88-112.
Cantú, F., & Garcia-Ponce, O. (2015). Partisan losers' effects: Perceptions of electoral integrity in Mexico. Electoral Studies, 39, 1-14.
Carey, J., Clayton, K., Helmke, G., Nyhan, B., Sanders, M., & Stokes, S. (2022). Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 32(1), 230-245.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2019. «Partisanship and question-wording effects: experimental evidence from Latin America», Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 26-45.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2023. «The AMLO Voter: Affective Polarization and the Rise of the Left in Mexico», Journal of Politics in Latin America, p.1866802X221147067.
Castro Cornejo, R., S. Ley, and U. Beltrán. 2020. «Anger, Partisanship, and the Activation of Populist Attitudes in Mexico». Política y Gobierno, 27 (2).
Claassen, Christopher. 2020a. «Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?», American Journal of Political Science, 64(1): 118–34.
Cohen, M. J., Smith, A. E., Moseley, M. W., & Layton, M. L. (2023). Winners’ consent? Citizen commitment to democracy when illiberal candidates win elections. American Journal of Political Science, 67(2), 261-276.
Curini L, Jou, W. and Memoli, V. (2012) Satisfaction with democracy and the winner-loser debate: The role of policy preferences and past experience. British Journal of Political Science, 42(2): 241–261.
Dahl, Robert A. 1956. A Preface to Democratic Theory. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Druckman, J. N., & Levendusky, M. S. (2019). What do we measure when we measure affective polarization? Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 114-122.
Dussauge-Laguna, M. I. (2021). ‘Doublespeak Populism’ and Public Administration: The Case of Mexico. Democratic backsliding and public administration, 178-199.
Flores-Macías, G. A. 2018. «Mexico’s PRI: The Resilience of an Authoritarian Successor Party and Its Consequences for Democracy». In Loxton, J., and S. Mainwaring (Eds.). Life After Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 257-283.
Graham, M. H., & Svolik, M. W. (2020). Democracy in America? Partisanship, polarization, and the robustness of support for democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 392-409.
Helmke, G. and S. Levitsky. 2006. Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons from Latin America. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
INEGI (2021) Encuesta Nacional de Cultura Cívica 2020, ENCUCI. México: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.
Kitschelt, H. 1992. «The formation of party systems in East Central Europe.« Politics & Society 20 (1): 7–50.
Kitschelt, H., and S. I. Wilkinson, eds. 2007. Patrons, clients and policies: Patterns of democratic accountability and political competition. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Langston, J. K. (2017). Democratization and authoritarian party survival: Mexico's PRI. Oxford University Press.
Langston, J. (2020). ¿Por qué los partidos hacen trampa? Cambios en las normas electorales en México después de la democratización. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. (2018). How democracies die. New York: Broadway Books.
Linz, Juan, and Alfred Stepan. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lippman, W. 1925. The Phantom Public. Transaction Publishers.
Mainwaring, S., 2006. The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy, 17 (3), 13-27.
Mainwaring, Scott. (2018). Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Maldonado, A. and M. Seligson (2014). «Electoral Trust in Latin America,« in Advancing electoral integrity, New York: Oxford University Press, 229–245.
Moehler, D. C. (2009). Critical citizens and submissive subjects: Election losers and winners in Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 39(2), 345-366.
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. 2023. Happy Winners, Sore Partisans? Political Trust, Partisanship, and the Populist Assault on Electoral Integrity in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(1), 72-95
Monsiváis Carrillo, A. (2023). Populismo, repertorios autoritarios y subversión de la democracia. Revista mexicana de sociología, 85(SPE2), 11-38.
Norris, P. (Ed.). (1999). Critical citizens: Global support for democratic government. OUP Oxford.
Petersen, G., and Somuano, F. 2021. «¿Desdemocratización mexicana? Pandemia, hiperpresidencialismo e intentos por reconstruir un sistema de partido dominante». Revista de ciencia política, 41(2), 353-376.
Sánchez Talanquer, M. 2020. «Mexico 2019: Personalistic Politics and Neoliberalism from the Left». Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2).
Sánchez-Talanquer, M., and K. F. Greene. 2021. «Is Mexico Falling into the Authoritarian Trap?». Journal of Democracy, 32(4), 56-71.
Sarsfield, R. Entre el pueblo bueno y la élite corrupta. Narrativa populista y polarización afectiva en las redes sociales en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (35).
Singer, M. (2018). Delegating away democracy: how good representation and policy successes can undermine democratic legitimacy. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1754-1788.
Singh, S. P. (2014) Not all election winners are equal: Satisfaction with democracy and the nature of the vote. European Journal of Political Research 53(2): 308–327.
Singh, S. P., Karakoç, E., and Blais, A. (2012) Differentiating winners: How elections affect satisfaction with democracy. Electoral Studies 31(1): 201–211.
Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), 20-32.
Touchton, M., Klofstad, C., and Uscinski, J. (2020). Does partisanship promote anti-democratic impulses? Evidence from a survey experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 1-13
Ugues Jr., A., & Vidal, D. (2015). Public Evaluations of Electoral Institutions in Mexico: An Analysis of the IFE and TRIFE in the 2006 and 2012 Elections. Electoral Studies, 40, 231-244.
Villanueva Ulfgard, Rebecka (2023). López Obrador’s hyper-presidentialism: populism and autocratic legalism defying the Supreme Court and the National Electoral Institute, The International Journal of Human Rights,
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zechmeister, E. J., & N. Lupu (2019). Pulse of democracy. Latin American Public Opinion Project.
Aguilar Rivera, J. A. 2022. «Dinámicas de la autocratización: México 2021». Revista de ciencia política, 42(2): 355-382.
Albertus, M., and G. Grossman. 2021. «The Americas: When Do Voters Support Power Grabs?». Journal of Democracy, 32(2): 116-131.
Almond, Gabriel A. and Sidney Verba. 1963. The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in seven nations. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Anderson, C. J., & Tverdova, Y. V. 2003. «Corruption, political allegiances, and attitudes toward government in contemporary democracies». American Journal of Political Science 47: 91-109.
Anderson, C. J., A. Blais, S. Bowler, T. Donovan, and O. Listhaug. 2005. Losers' Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. Oxford University Press.
Aparicio, J. (2009). Análisis estadístico de la elección presidencial de 2006: ¿Fraude o errores aleatorios?. Política y gobierno, 16(spe2), 225-243.
Aparicio, F. J., & Cornejo, R. C. (2020). Elecciones 2018. Una coyuntura histórica en México. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Bartels, L. M. (2000). Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952–1996. American Journal of Political Science.
Beltrán, U., Ley, S., and Cornejo, R. C., 2020. Estudio Nacional Electoral (CIDE-CSES) 2018. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
Bernhard, M., Nordstrom, T., Reenock, C., 2001. Economic performance, institutional intermediation, and democratic survival. Journal of Politics, 63 (3), 775e803.
Blais, A., & Gelineau, F. (2007). Winning, losing and satisfaction with democracy. Political Studies, 55(2), 425-441.
Blais, A., Morin-Chassé, A., & Singh, S. P. (2017). Election outcomes, legislative representation, and satisfaction with democracy. Party Politics, 23(2), 85-95.
Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (2002). Democracy, institutions, and attitudes about citizen influence on government. British Journal of Political Science, 32(2), 371-390.
Bruhn, K. 2012. «‘To hell with your corrupt institutions!’: AMLO and populism in Mexico». Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy: 88-112.
Cantú, F., & Garcia-Ponce, O. (2015). Partisan losers' effects: Perceptions of electoral integrity in Mexico. Electoral Studies, 39, 1-14.
Carey, J., Clayton, K., Helmke, G., Nyhan, B., Sanders, M., & Stokes, S. (2022). Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 32(1), 230-245.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2019. «Partisanship and question-wording effects: experimental evidence from Latin America», Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 26-45.
Castro Cornejo, R., 2023. «The AMLO Voter: Affective Polarization and the Rise of the Left in Mexico», Journal of Politics in Latin America, p.1866802X221147067.
Castro Cornejo, R., S. Ley, and U. Beltrán. 2020. «Anger, Partisanship, and the Activation of Populist Attitudes in Mexico». Política y Gobierno, 27 (2).
Claassen, Christopher. 2020a. «Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?», American Journal of Political Science, 64(1): 118–34.
Cohen, M. J., Smith, A. E., Moseley, M. W., & Layton, M. L. (2023). Winners’ consent? Citizen commitment to democracy when illiberal candidates win elections. American Journal of Political Science, 67(2), 261-276.
Curini L, Jou, W. and Memoli, V. (2012) Satisfaction with democracy and the winner-loser debate: The role of policy preferences and past experience. British Journal of Political Science, 42(2): 241–261.
Dahl, Robert A. 1956. A Preface to Democratic Theory. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Druckman, J. N., & Levendusky, M. S. (2019). What do we measure when we measure affective polarization? Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(1), 114-122.
Dussauge-Laguna, M. I. (2021). ‘Doublespeak Populism’ and Public Administration: The Case of Mexico. Democratic backsliding and public administration, 178-199.
Flores-Macías, G. A. 2018. «Mexico’s PRI: The Resilience of an Authoritarian Successor Party and Its Consequences for Democracy». In Loxton, J., and S. Mainwaring (Eds.). Life After Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 257-283.
Graham, M. H., & Svolik, M. W. (2020). Democracy in America? Partisanship, polarization, and the robustness of support for democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 392-409.
Helmke, G. and S. Levitsky. 2006. Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons from Latin America. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
INEGI (2021) Encuesta Nacional de Cultura Cívica 2020, ENCUCI. México: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.
Kitschelt, H. 1992. «The formation of party systems in East Central Europe.« Politics & Society 20 (1): 7–50.
Kitschelt, H., and S. I. Wilkinson, eds. 2007. Patrons, clients and policies: Patterns of democratic accountability and political competition. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Langston, J. K. (2017). Democratization and authoritarian party survival: Mexico's PRI. Oxford University Press.
Langston, J. (2020). ¿Por qué los partidos hacen trampa? Cambios en las normas electorales en México después de la democratización. Política y gobierno, 27(2).
Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. (2018). How democracies die. New York: Broadway Books.
Linz, Juan, and Alfred Stepan. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lippman, W. 1925. The Phantom Public. Transaction Publishers.
Mainwaring, S., 2006. The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy, 17 (3), 13-27.
Mainwaring, Scott. (2018). Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Maldonado, A. and M. Seligson (2014). «Electoral Trust in Latin America,« in Advancing electoral integrity, New York: Oxford University Press, 229–245.
Moehler, D. C. (2009). Critical citizens and submissive subjects: Election losers and winners in Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 39(2), 345-366.
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. 2023. Happy Winners, Sore Partisans? Political Trust, Partisanship, and the Populist Assault on Electoral Integrity in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(1), 72-95
Monsiváis Carrillo, A. (2023). Populismo, repertorios autoritarios y subversión de la democracia. Revista mexicana de sociología, 85(SPE2), 11-38.
Norris, P. (Ed.). (1999). Critical citizens: Global support for democratic government. OUP Oxford.
Petersen, G., and Somuano, F. 2021. «¿Desdemocratización mexicana? Pandemia, hiperpresidencialismo e intentos por reconstruir un sistema de partido dominante». Revista de ciencia política, 41(2), 353-376.
Sánchez Talanquer, M. 2020. «Mexico 2019: Personalistic Politics and Neoliberalism from the Left». Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2).
Sánchez-Talanquer, M., and K. F. Greene. 2021. «Is Mexico Falling into the Authoritarian Trap?». Journal of Democracy, 32(4), 56-71.
Sarsfield, R. Entre el pueblo bueno y la élite corrupta. Narrativa populista y polarización afectiva en las redes sociales en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (35).
Singer, M. (2018). Delegating away democracy: how good representation and policy successes can undermine democratic legitimacy. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1754-1788.
Singh, S. P. (2014) Not all election winners are equal: Satisfaction with democracy and the nature of the vote. European Journal of Political Research 53(2): 308–327.
Singh, S. P., Karakoç, E., and Blais, A. (2012) Differentiating winners: How elections affect satisfaction with democracy. Electoral Studies 31(1): 201–211.
Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), 20-32.
Touchton, M., Klofstad, C., and Uscinski, J. (2020). Does partisanship promote anti-democratic impulses? Evidence from a survey experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 1-13
Ugues Jr., A., & Vidal, D. (2015). Public Evaluations of Electoral Institutions in Mexico: An Analysis of the IFE and TRIFE in the 2006 and 2012 Elections. Electoral Studies, 40, 231-244.
Villanueva Ulfgard, Rebecka (2023). López Obrador’s hyper-presidentialism: populism and autocratic legalism defying the Supreme Court and the National Electoral Institute, The International Journal of Human Rights,
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zechmeister, E. J., & N. Lupu (2019). Pulse of democracy. Latin American Public Opinion Project.
Castro Cornejo, R., & Langston, J. (2023). Anti-Democratic Attitudes, the Winner-Loser Gap, and the Rise of the Left in Mexico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 179–202. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31414
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Do (Perceptions of) Electoral Polling Affect Voters' Behavior? Campaigns, Partisan Bias, and Strategic Voting , Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública: Vol. 11 No. 2 (2022)
- Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, DO CAMPAIGNS MATTER (IN NEW DEMOCRACIES)? CAMPAIGN INTEREST, VOTE CHOICE, AND SURVEY SATISFICING , Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública: Vol. 8 No. 1 (2019)
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
+
−