Partisanos estoicos. O condicionamento político das percepções econômicas no Uruguai
Resumo O poder do eleitorado de recompensar ou punir os governos por seu desempenho é um dos pilares da teoria democrática convencional, sendo as percepções sobre a economia uma das questões mais importantes para a opinião pública. No entanto, há um debate em andamento sobre se a causalidade também flui para o outro lado. Este artigo tem como objetivo testar se o partidarismo molda as percepções econômicas enquanto estende o argumento para um contexto econômico em desenvolvimento. Além disso, analisa o impacto não apenas da direção partidária, mas também de sua força, uma característica negligenciada na literatura de viés partidário. A análise, que agrega um conjunto de dados incomumente rico das avaliações econômicas uruguaias para o período 2001-2019, apresenta fortes evidências a favor do argumento que tanto a direção quanto a força partidária produzem um grande viés nos julgamentos econômicos, mesmo em um contexto econômico em desenvolvimento onde os cidadãos estão mais vulneráveis a choques econômicos. Essas descobertas sugerem um cenário bastante perturbador para a prestação de contas eleitoral em uma parte significativa do eleitorado uruguaio.
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https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916648016
Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions. Political behavior, 24(2), 117-150. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601
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Campello, D., & Zucco Jr, C. (2016). Presidential success and the world economy. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602. - https://doi.org/10.1086/684749
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press
https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.8402589
Cohen, M. J., Lupu, N., & Zechmeister, E. (2017). The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas, 2016-2017: A Comparative Study of Democracy and Governance. USAID and Vanderbilt University.
Duch, R. M., Palmer, H. D., & Anderson, C. J. (2000). Heterogeneity in perceptions of national economic conditions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4), 635-652
https://doi.org/10.2307/2669272
Enns, P. K., Kellstedt, P. M., & McAvoy, G. E. (2012). The consequences of partisanship in economic perceptions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(2), 287-310
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs016
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00380.x
Gerber, A. S., & Huber, G. A. (2009). Partisanship and economic behavior: Do partisan differences in economic forecasts predict real economic behavior?. American Political Science Review, 103(3), 407-426
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990098
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Kuru, O., Pasek, J., & Traugott, M. W. (2017). Motivated reasoning in the perceived credibility of public opinion polls. Public opinion quarterly, 81(2), 422-446
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfx018
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.023
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Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts, 226-245.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., & Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1964124
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Mummolo, J., & Peterson, E. (2018). Improving the interpretation of fixed effects regression results. Political Science Research and Methods, 6(4), 829-835. - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2017.44
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Samuels, D. J., & Zucco, C. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: Voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press. - https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108553742
Singer, M. M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context counts: The election cycle, development, and the nature of economic voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Tilley, J., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). Is the government to blame? An experimental test of how partisanship shapes perceptions of performance and responsibility. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 316-330. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000168
Visconti, G. (2017). Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Wilcox, N., & Wlezien, C. (1993). The contamination of responses to survey items: Economic perceptions and political judgments. Political Analysis, 5, 181-213
https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/5.1.181
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916648016
Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions. Political behavior, 24(2), 117-150. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The american voter. University of Chicago Press.
Campello, D., & Zucco Jr, C. (2016). Presidential success and the world economy. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602. - https://doi.org/10.1086/684749
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press
https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.8402589
Cohen, M. J., Lupu, N., & Zechmeister, E. (2017). The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas, 2016-2017: A Comparative Study of Democracy and Governance. USAID and Vanderbilt University.
Duch, R. M., Palmer, H. D., & Anderson, C. J. (2000). Heterogeneity in perceptions of national economic conditions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4), 635-652
https://doi.org/10.2307/2669272
Enns, P. K., Kellstedt, P. M., & McAvoy, G. E. (2012). The consequences of partisanship in economic perceptions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(2), 287-310
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs016
Evans, G., & Andersen, R. (2006). The political conditioning of economic perceptions. The Journal of Politics, 68(1), 194-207
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00380.x
Gerber, A. S., & Huber, G. A. (2009). Partisanship and economic behavior: Do partisan differences in economic forecasts predict real economic behavior?. American Political Science Review, 103(3), 407-426
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990098
González, L. E. (2010). La estabilización del sistema de partidos uruguayo, 1999-2009. González, Luis E. et al. El voto en Uruguay, 2010.
Kinder, D. R., & Kiewiet, D. R. (1981). Sociotropic politics: the American case. British Journal of Political Science, 11(2), 129-161. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400002544
Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964. American political science review, 65(1), 131-143. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1955049
Kuru, O., Pasek, J., & Traugott, M. W. (2017). Motivated reasoning in the perceived credibility of public opinion polls. Public opinion quarterly, 81(2), 422-446
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfx018
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Ratto, M. C. (2013). Economic voting in Latin America: A general model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-493
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.023
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual review of political science, 3(1), 183-219. - https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.183
Luna, J. P. (2002). ¿Pesimismo estructural o voto económico?. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política, (13), 123-151
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts, 226-245.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., & Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1964124
Mainwaring, S., & Scully, T. (Eds.). (1995). Building democratic institutions: Party systems in Latin America (p. 1). Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mummolo, J., & Peterson, E. (2018). Improving the interpretation of fixed effects regression results. Political Science Research and Methods, 6(4), 829-835. - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2017.44
Queirolo, R. (2013). The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior. University of Notre Dame Press
Rudolph, T. J., & Grant, J. T. (2002). An attributional model of economic voting: Evidence from the 2000 presidential election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(4), 805-823. - https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290205500404
Samuels, D. J., & Zucco, C. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: Voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press. - https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108553742
Singer, M. M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context counts: The election cycle, development, and the nature of economic voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Tilley, J., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). Is the government to blame? An experimental test of how partisanship shapes perceptions of performance and responsibility. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 316-330. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000168
Visconti, G. (2017). Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Wilcox, N., & Wlezien, C. (1993). The contamination of responses to survey items: Economic perceptions and political judgments. Political Analysis, 5, 181-213
https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/5.1.181
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.
Opertti, M. (2020). Partisanos estoicos. O condicionamento político das percepções econômicas no Uruguai. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 9(1), 67–90. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22797
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