Partisanos estoicos. El condicionamiento político de las percepciones económicas en Uruguay
Resumen El poder del electorado para recompensar o castigar a los gobiernos por su desempeño es uno de los pilares de la teoría democrática convencional, y las percepciones económicas son uno de los temas más importantes para la opinión pública. Sin embargo, hay un debate en curso sobre si la causalidad también funciona en sentido contrario. Este artículo tiene como objetivo probar si el partidismo da forma a las percepciones económicas, al tiempo que extiende el debate a un contexto de economía en desarrollo. Además, analiza el impacto no sólo de la dirección del partidismo, sino también su fuerza, una característica que se pasa por alto en la literatura de sesgo partidista. El análisis, que agrega un conjunto de datos inusualmente rico de las evaluaciones económicas de los uruguayos para el período 2001-2019, presenta una fuerte evidencia del argumento de que tanto la dirección como la fuerza del partidismo producen un gran sesgo en los juicios económicos, incluso en un contexto de economía en desarrollo donde los ciudadanos son más vulnerables a los shocks económicos. Estos hallazgos sugieren un escenario bastante inquietante para la rendición de cuentas electoral en una parte importante del electorado uruguayo.
- Referencias
- Cómo citar
- Del mismo autor
- Métricas
Anson, I. G. (2016). Just the facts? Partisan media and the political conditioning of economic perceptions. Political Research Quarterly, 69(3), 444-456
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916648016
Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions. Political behavior, 24(2), 117-150. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The american voter. University of Chicago Press.
Campello, D., & Zucco Jr, C. (2016). Presidential success and the world economy. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602. - https://doi.org/10.1086/684749
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press
https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.8402589
Cohen, M. J., Lupu, N., & Zechmeister, E. (2017). The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas, 2016-2017: A Comparative Study of Democracy and Governance. USAID and Vanderbilt University.
Duch, R. M., Palmer, H. D., & Anderson, C. J. (2000). Heterogeneity in perceptions of national economic conditions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4), 635-652
https://doi.org/10.2307/2669272
Enns, P. K., Kellstedt, P. M., & McAvoy, G. E. (2012). The consequences of partisanship in economic perceptions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(2), 287-310
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs016
Evans, G., & Andersen, R. (2006). The political conditioning of economic perceptions. The Journal of Politics, 68(1), 194-207
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00380.x
Gerber, A. S., & Huber, G. A. (2009). Partisanship and economic behavior: Do partisan differences in economic forecasts predict real economic behavior?. American Political Science Review, 103(3), 407-426
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990098
González, L. E. (2010). La estabilización del sistema de partidos uruguayo, 1999-2009. González, Luis E. et al. El voto en Uruguay, 2010.
Kinder, D. R., & Kiewiet, D. R. (1981). Sociotropic politics: the American case. British Journal of Political Science, 11(2), 129-161. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400002544
Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964. American political science review, 65(1), 131-143. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1955049
Kuru, O., Pasek, J., & Traugott, M. W. (2017). Motivated reasoning in the perceived credibility of public opinion polls. Public opinion quarterly, 81(2), 422-446
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfx018
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Ratto, M. C. (2013). Economic voting in Latin America: A general model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-493
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.023
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual review of political science, 3(1), 183-219. - https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.183
Luna, J. P. (2002). ¿Pesimismo estructural o voto económico?. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política, (13), 123-151
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts, 226-245.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., & Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1964124
Mainwaring, S., & Scully, T. (Eds.). (1995). Building democratic institutions: Party systems in Latin America (p. 1). Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mummolo, J., & Peterson, E. (2018). Improving the interpretation of fixed effects regression results. Political Science Research and Methods, 6(4), 829-835. - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2017.44
Queirolo, R. (2013). The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior. University of Notre Dame Press
Rudolph, T. J., & Grant, J. T. (2002). An attributional model of economic voting: Evidence from the 2000 presidential election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(4), 805-823. - https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290205500404
Samuels, D. J., & Zucco, C. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: Voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press. - https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108553742
Singer, M. M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context counts: The election cycle, development, and the nature of economic voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Tilley, J., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). Is the government to blame? An experimental test of how partisanship shapes perceptions of performance and responsibility. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 316-330. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000168
Visconti, G. (2017). Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Wilcox, N., & Wlezien, C. (1993). The contamination of responses to survey items: Economic perceptions and political judgments. Political Analysis, 5, 181-213
https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/5.1.181
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916648016
Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions. Political behavior, 24(2), 117-150. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The american voter. University of Chicago Press.
Campello, D., & Zucco Jr, C. (2016). Presidential success and the world economy. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602. - https://doi.org/10.1086/684749
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press
https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.8402589
Cohen, M. J., Lupu, N., & Zechmeister, E. (2017). The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas, 2016-2017: A Comparative Study of Democracy and Governance. USAID and Vanderbilt University.
Duch, R. M., Palmer, H. D., & Anderson, C. J. (2000). Heterogeneity in perceptions of national economic conditions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4), 635-652
https://doi.org/10.2307/2669272
Enns, P. K., Kellstedt, P. M., & McAvoy, G. E. (2012). The consequences of partisanship in economic perceptions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(2), 287-310
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs016
Evans, G., & Andersen, R. (2006). The political conditioning of economic perceptions. The Journal of Politics, 68(1), 194-207
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00380.x
Gerber, A. S., & Huber, G. A. (2009). Partisanship and economic behavior: Do partisan differences in economic forecasts predict real economic behavior?. American Political Science Review, 103(3), 407-426
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990098
González, L. E. (2010). La estabilización del sistema de partidos uruguayo, 1999-2009. González, Luis E. et al. El voto en Uruguay, 2010.
Kinder, D. R., & Kiewiet, D. R. (1981). Sociotropic politics: the American case. British Journal of Political Science, 11(2), 129-161. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400002544
Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964. American political science review, 65(1), 131-143. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1955049
Kuru, O., Pasek, J., & Traugott, M. W. (2017). Motivated reasoning in the perceived credibility of public opinion polls. Public opinion quarterly, 81(2), 422-446
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfx018
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Ratto, M. C. (2013). Economic voting in Latin America: A general model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-493
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.023
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual review of political science, 3(1), 183-219. - https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.183
Luna, J. P. (2002). ¿Pesimismo estructural o voto económico?. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política, (13), 123-151
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts, 226-245.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., & Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1964124
Mainwaring, S., & Scully, T. (Eds.). (1995). Building democratic institutions: Party systems in Latin America (p. 1). Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mummolo, J., & Peterson, E. (2018). Improving the interpretation of fixed effects regression results. Political Science Research and Methods, 6(4), 829-835. - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2017.44
Queirolo, R. (2013). The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior. University of Notre Dame Press
Rudolph, T. J., & Grant, J. T. (2002). An attributional model of economic voting: Evidence from the 2000 presidential election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(4), 805-823. - https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290205500404
Samuels, D. J., & Zucco, C. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: Voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press. - https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108553742
Singer, M. M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context counts: The election cycle, development, and the nature of economic voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Tilley, J., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). Is the government to blame? An experimental test of how partisanship shapes perceptions of performance and responsibility. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 316-330. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000168
Visconti, G. (2017). Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Wilcox, N., & Wlezien, C. (1993). The contamination of responses to survey items: Economic perceptions and political judgments. Political Analysis, 5, 181-213
https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/5.1.181
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.
Opertti, M. (2020). Partisanos estoicos. El condicionamiento político de las percepciones económicas en Uruguay. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 9(1), 67–90. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22797
Artículos más leídos del mismo autor/a
- Eliana Álvarez, Juan Bogliaccini, Martín Opertti, Rosario Queirolo Velasco, Conservar y disponibilizar treinta años de opinión pública: lecciones aprendidas del caso uruguayo , Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública: Vol. 11 Núm. 1 (2022)
Descargas
Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.
+
−