A (In)satisfação com os Serviços Públicos: Um Modelo Dinâmico
Resumo Este artigo avalia o efeito da economia na satisfação da população com os serviços públicos. A contribuição empírica central é um índice nacional de satisfação com os serviços básicos do governo - saúde, educação, segurança, habitação, transporte, emprego, meio ambiente e Bolsa Família - de 1989 a 2017-, estimado com o algoritmo de díades. Os resultados mostram que as taxas de desemprego, o crescimento do PIB e as avaliações prospectivas egotrópicas da economia impactam a satisfação com os serviços públicos. Como tal, este estudo conecta duas agendas de pesquisa principais: a qualidade da democracia e a política macro.
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Abranches, S. (2019). Polarização radicalizada e ruptura eleitoral. Democracia em risco, 22, 11-34.
Ansolabehere, S., Rodden, J., e Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review, 102(2), 215-232.
Baker, A., Dominguez, I. J. I., Greene, K. F., Lawson, C., e Moreno, A. (2015). Public mood and presidential election outcomes in Mexico. Mexico’s Evolving Democracy: A Comparative Study of the 2012 Elections, 107-127.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2014). The Spanish policy mood, 1978-2012. In 8th ECPR General Conference. University of Glasgow.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2020). The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017. European Political Science Review, 12(2), 133-153.
Bartle, J., Dellepiane-Avellaneda, S., e Stimson, J. (2011). The moving centre: Preferences for government activity in Britain, 1950–2005. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 259-285.
Bello, A. (2016). A lógica social do voto correto no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 22(2), 466-491.
Bello, A. (2019). Origem, Causas e Consequências da Polarização Política. Tese de Doutorado,
Universidade de Brasília.
Bellucci, P., e Pellegata, A. (2017). Citizens’ policy mood, policies and election outcomes in Italy. Contemporary Italian Politics, 9(1), 8-29.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2013). Serviços públicos: o papel do contato direto e do cidadão crítico nas avaliações das instituições. Em J. A. Moisés, e R. Meneguello (orgs.), A desconfiança política e os seus impactos na qualidade da democracia (pp. 341-357). Editora da Universidade de São Paulo-EDUSP.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2014). Panorama e determinantes da satisfação com os serviços públicos no Brasil. Revista Do Serviço Público, 63(4), 413-434. https://doi. org/10.21874/rsp.v63i4.105
Brooks, C., e Manza, J. (2007). Why Welfare States Persist: Public Opinion and the Future of Social Provision. University of Chicago Press.
Carpini, D. Michael X., e Scott Keeter. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. Yale University Press.
Chu, Y. H., Bratton, M., Lagos, M., Shastri, S., e Tessler, M. (2008). Public opinion and democratic legitimacy. Journal of Democracy, 19(2), 74-87.
Claassen, C. (2020). In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1), 36-53.
Converse, P. (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Public. Em D. Apter (Ed.), Ideology and Discontent (pp. 1-74). Free Press.
De Boef, S., e Keele, L. (2008). Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 184-200.
Del Porto, F. B. (2016). Satisfação com a democracia entre os brasileiros no cenário recente (2002-2014). Revista Debates, 10(3), 83-106. https://doi. org/10.22456/1982-5269.68002.
Diamond, L., e Morlino, L. (Eds.). (2005). Assessing the quality of democracy. JHU Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper
Durr, R. H. (1993). What moves policy sentiment?. American Political Science Review, 87(1), 158-170.
Easton, D. (1975). A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4), 435-457.
Ellis, C., e Stimson, J. A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge University Press.
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B., e Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press.
Figueiredo, A. C., Torres, H. D. G., e Bichir, R. M. (2006). A conjuntura social brasileira revisitada. Novos estudos CEBRAP, (75), 173-183.
Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A microanalysis. American Journal of Political Science, 426-443.
Graham, C., e Sukhtankar, S. (2004). Does economic crisis reduce support for markets and democracy in Latin America? Some evidence from surveys of public opinion and well being. Journal of Latin American Studies, 36(2), 349-377.
Gujarati, D. (2006). Econometria básica. Campus Elsevier.
Kampen, J. K., De Walle, S. V., e Bouckaert, G. (2006). Assessing the relation between satisfaction with public service delivery and trust in Government. The impact of the predisposition of citizens toward Government on evalutations of its performance. Public Performance e Management Review, 29(4), 387-404.
Lau, R. R., e Redlawsk, D. P. (2006). How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns. Cambridge University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral studies, 19(2-3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic models of voting. In RJ Dalton and HD Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2019). Economic Voting. Em R. Congleton, B. Grofman e S. Voigt (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume I (pp. 247-265). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review, 88(1), 63-76.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., e Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611.
Magalhães, P. C. (2014). Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53(1), 77-97.
Mainwaring, S. (2006). The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of democracy, 17(3), 13-27.
Moimaz, S. A. S., Marques, J. A. M., Saliba, O., Garbin, C. A. S., Zina, L. G., e Saliba, N. A. (2010). Satisfação e percepção do usuário do SUS sobre o serviço público de saúde. Physis: Revista de Saúde Coletiva, 20, 1419-1440.
Moisés, J. Á. e Meneguello, R. (2013). A Desconfiança Política e seus Impactos na Qualidade da Democracia–o caso do Brasil. EDUSP.
Neto, F. B., e Coppedge, M. (2015). O Brasil na perspectiva do Projeto Variedades da Democracia. Varieties of Democracy, Working Paper, Series 2015:14.
Netto, J. V. R. (2015). Gestão de políticas de cultura e qualidade da democracia: São Paulo, 10 anos de um modelo ainda em construção. Revista de Administração Pública,49(4), 1011-1038.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1983). Effects of public opinion on policy. American political science review, 77(1), 175-190.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1992). The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans’ policy preferences. University of Chicago Press.
Pitkin, H. F. (Ed.). (1969). Representation. Atherton Press.
Powell Jr., G. B. (2005). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L., Smith, A. E., Layton, M. L., e Pereira, F. B. (2011). Legitimidade e qualidade da democracia no Brasil: uma visão da cidadania. Intermeios.
Rennó, L. (2007). Desigualdade e informação política: as eleições brasileiras de 2002. Dados, 50(4), 721-755.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1975) [1942]. Capitalism, socialism and democracy. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 1463.
Soroka, S. N., e Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of democracy: Politics, public opinion, and policy. Cambridge University Press.
Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45, 620-633.
Stimson, J. (1991). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A., MacKuen, M. B., e Erikson, R. S. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 543-565.
Ura, J. D. (2014). Backlash and legitimation: Macro political responses to Supreme Court decisions. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 110-126.
Wlezien, C. (1995). The public as thermostat: Dynamics of preferences for spending. American Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 981-1000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111666
Ansolabehere, S., Rodden, J., e Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review, 102(2), 215-232.
Baker, A., Dominguez, I. J. I., Greene, K. F., Lawson, C., e Moreno, A. (2015). Public mood and presidential election outcomes in Mexico. Mexico’s Evolving Democracy: A Comparative Study of the 2012 Elections, 107-127.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2014). The Spanish policy mood, 1978-2012. In 8th ECPR General Conference. University of Glasgow.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2020). The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017. European Political Science Review, 12(2), 133-153.
Bartle, J., Dellepiane-Avellaneda, S., e Stimson, J. (2011). The moving centre: Preferences for government activity in Britain, 1950–2005. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 259-285.
Bello, A. (2016). A lógica social do voto correto no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 22(2), 466-491.
Bello, A. (2019). Origem, Causas e Consequências da Polarização Política. Tese de Doutorado,
Universidade de Brasília.
Bellucci, P., e Pellegata, A. (2017). Citizens’ policy mood, policies and election outcomes in Italy. Contemporary Italian Politics, 9(1), 8-29.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2013). Serviços públicos: o papel do contato direto e do cidadão crítico nas avaliações das instituições. Em J. A. Moisés, e R. Meneguello (orgs.), A desconfiança política e os seus impactos na qualidade da democracia (pp. 341-357). Editora da Universidade de São Paulo-EDUSP.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2014). Panorama e determinantes da satisfação com os serviços públicos no Brasil. Revista Do Serviço Público, 63(4), 413-434. https://doi. org/10.21874/rsp.v63i4.105
Brooks, C., e Manza, J. (2007). Why Welfare States Persist: Public Opinion and the Future of Social Provision. University of Chicago Press.
Carpini, D. Michael X., e Scott Keeter. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. Yale University Press.
Chu, Y. H., Bratton, M., Lagos, M., Shastri, S., e Tessler, M. (2008). Public opinion and democratic legitimacy. Journal of Democracy, 19(2), 74-87.
Claassen, C. (2020). In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1), 36-53.
Converse, P. (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Public. Em D. Apter (Ed.), Ideology and Discontent (pp. 1-74). Free Press.
De Boef, S., e Keele, L. (2008). Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 184-200.
Del Porto, F. B. (2016). Satisfação com a democracia entre os brasileiros no cenário recente (2002-2014). Revista Debates, 10(3), 83-106. https://doi. org/10.22456/1982-5269.68002.
Diamond, L., e Morlino, L. (Eds.). (2005). Assessing the quality of democracy. JHU Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper
Durr, R. H. (1993). What moves policy sentiment?. American Political Science Review, 87(1), 158-170.
Easton, D. (1975). A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4), 435-457.
Ellis, C., e Stimson, J. A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge University Press.
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B., e Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press.
Figueiredo, A. C., Torres, H. D. G., e Bichir, R. M. (2006). A conjuntura social brasileira revisitada. Novos estudos CEBRAP, (75), 173-183.
Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A microanalysis. American Journal of Political Science, 426-443.
Graham, C., e Sukhtankar, S. (2004). Does economic crisis reduce support for markets and democracy in Latin America? Some evidence from surveys of public opinion and well being. Journal of Latin American Studies, 36(2), 349-377.
Gujarati, D. (2006). Econometria básica. Campus Elsevier.
Kampen, J. K., De Walle, S. V., e Bouckaert, G. (2006). Assessing the relation between satisfaction with public service delivery and trust in Government. The impact of the predisposition of citizens toward Government on evalutations of its performance. Public Performance e Management Review, 29(4), 387-404.
Lau, R. R., e Redlawsk, D. P. (2006). How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns. Cambridge University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral studies, 19(2-3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic models of voting. In RJ Dalton and HD Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2019). Economic Voting. Em R. Congleton, B. Grofman e S. Voigt (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume I (pp. 247-265). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review, 88(1), 63-76.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., e Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611.
Magalhães, P. C. (2014). Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53(1), 77-97.
Mainwaring, S. (2006). The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of democracy, 17(3), 13-27.
Moimaz, S. A. S., Marques, J. A. M., Saliba, O., Garbin, C. A. S., Zina, L. G., e Saliba, N. A. (2010). Satisfação e percepção do usuário do SUS sobre o serviço público de saúde. Physis: Revista de Saúde Coletiva, 20, 1419-1440.
Moisés, J. Á. e Meneguello, R. (2013). A Desconfiança Política e seus Impactos na Qualidade da Democracia–o caso do Brasil. EDUSP.
Neto, F. B., e Coppedge, M. (2015). O Brasil na perspectiva do Projeto Variedades da Democracia. Varieties of Democracy, Working Paper, Series 2015:14.
Netto, J. V. R. (2015). Gestão de políticas de cultura e qualidade da democracia: São Paulo, 10 anos de um modelo ainda em construção. Revista de Administração Pública,49(4), 1011-1038.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1983). Effects of public opinion on policy. American political science review, 77(1), 175-190.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1992). The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans’ policy preferences. University of Chicago Press.
Pitkin, H. F. (Ed.). (1969). Representation. Atherton Press.
Powell Jr., G. B. (2005). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L., Smith, A. E., Layton, M. L., e Pereira, F. B. (2011). Legitimidade e qualidade da democracia no Brasil: uma visão da cidadania. Intermeios.
Rennó, L. (2007). Desigualdade e informação política: as eleições brasileiras de 2002. Dados, 50(4), 721-755.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1975) [1942]. Capitalism, socialism and democracy. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 1463.
Soroka, S. N., e Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of democracy: Politics, public opinion, and policy. Cambridge University Press.
Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45, 620-633.
Stimson, J. (1991). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A., MacKuen, M. B., e Erikson, R. S. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 543-565.
Ura, J. D. (2014). Backlash and legitimation: Macro political responses to Supreme Court decisions. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 110-126.
Wlezien, C. (1995). The public as thermostat: Dynamics of preferences for spending. American Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 981-1000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111666
Bello, A. (2021). A (In)satisfação com os Serviços Públicos: Um Modelo Dinâmico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(2), 7–33. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26017
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