La (in)satisfacción con los servicios públicos: un modelo dinámico
Resumen Este artículo evalúa el efecto de la economía sobre la satisfacción de las masas con los servicios públicos. Su contribución empírica central es un índice nacional de satisfacción con los servicios gubernamentales básicos - salud, educación, seguridad, vivienda, transporte, empleo, medio ambiente y Bolsa Família - de 1989 a 2017 estimado con el algoritmo de ratios de díadas. Los resultados muestran que las tasas de desempleo, el crecimiento del PIB y las evaluaciones egotrópicas prospectivas de la economía tienen un impacto en la satisfacción con los servicios públicos. Como tal, este estudio conecta dos grandes agendas de investigación: la calidad de la democracia y la política macroeconómica.
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Ansolabehere, S., Rodden, J., e Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review, 102(2), 215-232.
Baker, A., Dominguez, I. J. I., Greene, K. F., Lawson, C., e Moreno, A. (2015). Public mood and presidential election outcomes in Mexico. Mexico’s Evolving Democracy: A Comparative Study of the 2012 Elections, 107-127.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2014). The Spanish policy mood, 1978-2012. In 8th ECPR General Conference. University of Glasgow.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2020). The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017. European Political Science Review, 12(2), 133-153.
Bartle, J., Dellepiane-Avellaneda, S., e Stimson, J. (2011). The moving centre: Preferences for government activity in Britain, 1950–2005. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 259-285.
Bello, A. (2016). A lógica social do voto correto no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 22(2), 466-491.
Bello, A. (2019). Origem, Causas e Consequências da Polarização Política. Tese de Doutorado,
Universidade de Brasília.
Bellucci, P., e Pellegata, A. (2017). Citizens’ policy mood, policies and election outcomes in Italy. Contemporary Italian Politics, 9(1), 8-29.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2013). Serviços públicos: o papel do contato direto e do cidadão crítico nas avaliações das instituições. Em J. A. Moisés, e R. Meneguello (orgs.), A desconfiança política e os seus impactos na qualidade da democracia (pp. 341-357). Editora da Universidade de São Paulo-EDUSP.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2014). Panorama e determinantes da satisfação com os serviços públicos no Brasil. Revista Do Serviço Público, 63(4), 413-434. https://doi. org/10.21874/rsp.v63i4.105
Brooks, C., e Manza, J. (2007). Why Welfare States Persist: Public Opinion and the Future of Social Provision. University of Chicago Press.
Carpini, D. Michael X., e Scott Keeter. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. Yale University Press.
Chu, Y. H., Bratton, M., Lagos, M., Shastri, S., e Tessler, M. (2008). Public opinion and democratic legitimacy. Journal of Democracy, 19(2), 74-87.
Claassen, C. (2020). In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1), 36-53.
Converse, P. (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Public. Em D. Apter (Ed.), Ideology and Discontent (pp. 1-74). Free Press.
De Boef, S., e Keele, L. (2008). Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 184-200.
Del Porto, F. B. (2016). Satisfação com a democracia entre os brasileiros no cenário recente (2002-2014). Revista Debates, 10(3), 83-106. https://doi. org/10.22456/1982-5269.68002.
Diamond, L., e Morlino, L. (Eds.). (2005). Assessing the quality of democracy. JHU Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper
Durr, R. H. (1993). What moves policy sentiment?. American Political Science Review, 87(1), 158-170.
Easton, D. (1975). A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4), 435-457.
Ellis, C., e Stimson, J. A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge University Press.
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B., e Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press.
Figueiredo, A. C., Torres, H. D. G., e Bichir, R. M. (2006). A conjuntura social brasileira revisitada. Novos estudos CEBRAP, (75), 173-183.
Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A microanalysis. American Journal of Political Science, 426-443.
Graham, C., e Sukhtankar, S. (2004). Does economic crisis reduce support for markets and democracy in Latin America? Some evidence from surveys of public opinion and well being. Journal of Latin American Studies, 36(2), 349-377.
Gujarati, D. (2006). Econometria básica. Campus Elsevier.
Kampen, J. K., De Walle, S. V., e Bouckaert, G. (2006). Assessing the relation between satisfaction with public service delivery and trust in Government. The impact of the predisposition of citizens toward Government on evalutations of its performance. Public Performance e Management Review, 29(4), 387-404.
Lau, R. R., e Redlawsk, D. P. (2006). How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns. Cambridge University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral studies, 19(2-3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic models of voting. In RJ Dalton and HD Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2019). Economic Voting. Em R. Congleton, B. Grofman e S. Voigt (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume I (pp. 247-265). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review, 88(1), 63-76.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., e Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611.
Magalhães, P. C. (2014). Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53(1), 77-97.
Mainwaring, S. (2006). The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of democracy, 17(3), 13-27.
Moimaz, S. A. S., Marques, J. A. M., Saliba, O., Garbin, C. A. S., Zina, L. G., e Saliba, N. A. (2010). Satisfação e percepção do usuário do SUS sobre o serviço público de saúde. Physis: Revista de Saúde Coletiva, 20, 1419-1440.
Moisés, J. Á. e Meneguello, R. (2013). A Desconfiança Política e seus Impactos na Qualidade da Democracia–o caso do Brasil. EDUSP.
Neto, F. B., e Coppedge, M. (2015). O Brasil na perspectiva do Projeto Variedades da Democracia. Varieties of Democracy, Working Paper, Series 2015:14.
Netto, J. V. R. (2015). Gestão de políticas de cultura e qualidade da democracia: São Paulo, 10 anos de um modelo ainda em construção. Revista de Administração Pública,49(4), 1011-1038.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1983). Effects of public opinion on policy. American political science review, 77(1), 175-190.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1992). The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans’ policy preferences. University of Chicago Press.
Pitkin, H. F. (Ed.). (1969). Representation. Atherton Press.
Powell Jr., G. B. (2005). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L., Smith, A. E., Layton, M. L., e Pereira, F. B. (2011). Legitimidade e qualidade da democracia no Brasil: uma visão da cidadania. Intermeios.
Rennó, L. (2007). Desigualdade e informação política: as eleições brasileiras de 2002. Dados, 50(4), 721-755.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1975) [1942]. Capitalism, socialism and democracy. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 1463.
Soroka, S. N., e Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of democracy: Politics, public opinion, and policy. Cambridge University Press.
Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45, 620-633.
Stimson, J. (1991). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A., MacKuen, M. B., e Erikson, R. S. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 543-565.
Ura, J. D. (2014). Backlash and legitimation: Macro political responses to Supreme Court decisions. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 110-126.
Wlezien, C. (1995). The public as thermostat: Dynamics of preferences for spending. American Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 981-1000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111666
Ansolabehere, S., Rodden, J., e Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review, 102(2), 215-232.
Baker, A., Dominguez, I. J. I., Greene, K. F., Lawson, C., e Moreno, A. (2015). Public mood and presidential election outcomes in Mexico. Mexico’s Evolving Democracy: A Comparative Study of the 2012 Elections, 107-127.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2014). The Spanish policy mood, 1978-2012. In 8th ECPR General Conference. University of Glasgow.
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., e Orriols, L. (2020). The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017. European Political Science Review, 12(2), 133-153.
Bartle, J., Dellepiane-Avellaneda, S., e Stimson, J. (2011). The moving centre: Preferences for government activity in Britain, 1950–2005. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 259-285.
Bello, A. (2016). A lógica social do voto correto no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 22(2), 466-491.
Bello, A. (2019). Origem, Causas e Consequências da Polarização Política. Tese de Doutorado,
Universidade de Brasília.
Bellucci, P., e Pellegata, A. (2017). Citizens’ policy mood, policies and election outcomes in Italy. Contemporary Italian Politics, 9(1), 8-29.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2013). Serviços públicos: o papel do contato direto e do cidadão crítico nas avaliações das instituições. Em J. A. Moisés, e R. Meneguello (orgs.), A desconfiança política e os seus impactos na qualidade da democracia (pp. 341-357). Editora da Universidade de São Paulo-EDUSP.
Bonifácio, R., e Schlegel, R. (2014). Panorama e determinantes da satisfação com os serviços públicos no Brasil. Revista Do Serviço Público, 63(4), 413-434. https://doi. org/10.21874/rsp.v63i4.105
Brooks, C., e Manza, J. (2007). Why Welfare States Persist: Public Opinion and the Future of Social Provision. University of Chicago Press.
Carpini, D. Michael X., e Scott Keeter. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. Yale University Press.
Chu, Y. H., Bratton, M., Lagos, M., Shastri, S., e Tessler, M. (2008). Public opinion and democratic legitimacy. Journal of Democracy, 19(2), 74-87.
Claassen, C. (2020). In the Mood for Democracy? Democratic Support as Thermostatic Opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1), 36-53.
Converse, P. (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Public. Em D. Apter (Ed.), Ideology and Discontent (pp. 1-74). Free Press.
De Boef, S., e Keele, L. (2008). Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 184-200.
Del Porto, F. B. (2016). Satisfação com a democracia entre os brasileiros no cenário recente (2002-2014). Revista Debates, 10(3), 83-106. https://doi. org/10.22456/1982-5269.68002.
Diamond, L., e Morlino, L. (Eds.). (2005). Assessing the quality of democracy. JHU Press.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper
Durr, R. H. (1993). What moves policy sentiment?. American Political Science Review, 87(1), 158-170.
Easton, D. (1975). A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4), 435-457.
Ellis, C., e Stimson, J. A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge University Press.
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B., e Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press.
Figueiredo, A. C., Torres, H. D. G., e Bichir, R. M. (2006). A conjuntura social brasileira revisitada. Novos estudos CEBRAP, (75), 173-183.
Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A microanalysis. American Journal of Political Science, 426-443.
Graham, C., e Sukhtankar, S. (2004). Does economic crisis reduce support for markets and democracy in Latin America? Some evidence from surveys of public opinion and well being. Journal of Latin American Studies, 36(2), 349-377.
Gujarati, D. (2006). Econometria básica. Campus Elsevier.
Kampen, J. K., De Walle, S. V., e Bouckaert, G. (2006). Assessing the relation between satisfaction with public service delivery and trust in Government. The impact of the predisposition of citizens toward Government on evalutations of its performance. Public Performance e Management Review, 29(4), 387-404.
Lau, R. R., e Redlawsk, D. P. (2006). How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns. Cambridge University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral studies, 19(2-3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic models of voting. In RJ Dalton and HD Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., e Stegmaier, M. (2019). Economic Voting. Em R. Congleton, B. Grofman e S. Voigt (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume I (pp. 247-265). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review, 88(1), 63-76.
MacKuen, M. B., Erikson, R. S., e Stimson, J. A. (1992). Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy. American Political Science Review, 86(3), 597-611.
Magalhães, P. C. (2014). Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53(1), 77-97.
Mainwaring, S. (2006). The crisis of representation in the Andes. Journal of democracy, 17(3), 13-27.
Moimaz, S. A. S., Marques, J. A. M., Saliba, O., Garbin, C. A. S., Zina, L. G., e Saliba, N. A. (2010). Satisfação e percepção do usuário do SUS sobre o serviço público de saúde. Physis: Revista de Saúde Coletiva, 20, 1419-1440.
Moisés, J. Á. e Meneguello, R. (2013). A Desconfiança Política e seus Impactos na Qualidade da Democracia–o caso do Brasil. EDUSP.
Neto, F. B., e Coppedge, M. (2015). O Brasil na perspectiva do Projeto Variedades da Democracia. Varieties of Democracy, Working Paper, Series 2015:14.
Netto, J. V. R. (2015). Gestão de políticas de cultura e qualidade da democracia: São Paulo, 10 anos de um modelo ainda em construção. Revista de Administração Pública,49(4), 1011-1038.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1983). Effects of public opinion on policy. American political science review, 77(1), 175-190.
Page, B. I., e Shapiro, R. Y. (1992). The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans’ policy preferences. University of Chicago Press.
Pitkin, H. F. (Ed.). (1969). Representation. Atherton Press.
Powell Jr., G. B. (2005). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L., Smith, A. E., Layton, M. L., e Pereira, F. B. (2011). Legitimidade e qualidade da democracia no Brasil: uma visão da cidadania. Intermeios.
Rennó, L. (2007). Desigualdade e informação política: as eleições brasileiras de 2002. Dados, 50(4), 721-755.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1975) [1942]. Capitalism, socialism and democracy. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 1463.
Soroka, S. N., e Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of democracy: Politics, public opinion, and policy. Cambridge University Press.
Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45, 620-633.
Stimson, J. (1991). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A., MacKuen, M. B., e Erikson, R. S. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 543-565.
Ura, J. D. (2014). Backlash and legitimation: Macro political responses to Supreme Court decisions. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 110-126.
Wlezien, C. (1995). The public as thermostat: Dynamics of preferences for spending. American Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 981-1000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111666
Bello, A. (2021). La (in)satisfacción con los servicios públicos: un modelo dinámico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(2), 7–33. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26017
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