O Papel da Economia, da Segurança e da Aceitação do Líder do Partido na Previsão das Eleições Gerais de 2020 na Jamaica
Resumo Para prever as eleições gerais do 3 de setembro de 2020 na Jamaica, três modelos econométricos foram elaborarados. Estes são: o modelo econômico e securitário (o modelo nr. 1), o modelo econômico e securitário com a aceitação do líder do JLP (o modelo nr. 2), e o modelo econômico e securitário com a aceitação do líder do PNP (o modelo nr. 3). Os três modelos previram corretamente a vitória do Partido Trabalhista da Jamaica (JLP). Para a validação cruzada, o método “Jack-knife” foi executado. Estes modelos, apoiados pelos achados semelhantes nos dados, indicam a medida em que a macroeconomia, as preocupações com segurança e a popularidade do líder do partido podem influenciar os resultados das eleições. Sem embargo, existem particularidades no Caribe anglófono devido ao fato do que os eleitores jamaicanos reagem às preocupações econômicas e securitárias de maneiras diferentes dos eleitores do hemisfério norte. Por exemplo, os aumentos da relação dívida/PIB e a taxa de homicídios previram uma vitória para o JLP. Este estudo deve ser reproduzido no Caribe e na América Latina com a aplicação de painel de dados.
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Uang, R. S. (2013). Campaigning on Public Security in Latin America: Obstacles to Success. Latin American Politics and Society, 55(2), 25-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2013.00192.x
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Weyland, K. (2020). Populism’s Threat to Democracy. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2), 389-406. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592719003955
Whiteley, P. (1984). Perceptions of economic performance and voting behaviour in the 1983 general election in Britain. Political Behaviour, 6(4), 395-410. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00987074
Wood, B. D. (2004). Presidential rhetoric and economic leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 34(3), 573-606. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27552614
World Bank (2020, April 13). The World Bank in Jamaica. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jamaica/overview
Bélanger, E. & Godbout, J. (2010). Forecasting Canadian federal elections. Political Science and Politics, 43(4), 691-699. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40927037
Charles. C. A. D. (2009). Newspaper representations of Portia Simpson-Miller’s abstention in parliament and Westminster politics in Jamaica. Ideaz, 8, 25-49. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2372153
Charles, C. A. D. (2020, August 30). Why the JLP will win the 2020 General Election. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/20200830/why-jlp-will-win-2020-general-election
Charles, C. A. D. & Reid, G. S. O. (2016). Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica. Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 54(4), 449-477. https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2016.1216729
Charles, C. A. D., Reid, G. S. O. & Albarus, N. (2019). A method for election forecasting. Sage research methods cases. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781526490803
Charles, C. A. D. & Dempster, D. (2020, September 9). Assessing leadership traits and the JLP win. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/commentary/20200909/christopher-charles-and-dalkeith-dempster-assessing-leadership-traits
Dassonneville, R. & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2014). Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool. Acta Politica, 49, 372-394.
https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2014.12
Denham, A. (2017). Choosing party leaders: Anglophone democracies, British parties and the limits of comparative politics. British Politics, 12(2), 250-266. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-016-0022-8
Edie, C. J. (2011). The 2007 Parliamentary Election: The Jamaica Labour Party’s Return to Power. Social and Economic Studies, 60(2), 1-39. http://www.jstor.com/stable/41635301
Ellis, H. (1991). Identifying Crime Correlates in a Developing Society: A Study of Socio-Economic and Socio-Demographic Contributions to Crime in Jamaica, 1950-1984. Peter Lang Publishing Company.
Gendreau, P. & Surridge, C. T. (1978). Controlling Gun Crimes - the Jamaican Experience. International Journal of Criminology and Penology, 6(1), 43-60. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/controlling-gun-crimes-jamaican-experience
González, F. E. & Young, G. (2017). The resurgence and spread of populism? SAIS Review of International Studies, 37(1), 3-18. https://doi.org/10.1353/sais.2017.0001
Guseh, J. S. (1996). The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Presidential Elections. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 26(2), 415-424. http://www.jstor.com/stable/27551588
Hagerty, M. R. (2006). Quality of Life from the Voting Booth: The Effect of Crime Rates and Income on Recent U.S. Presidential Elections. Social Indicators Research, 77(2), 197-210. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27522579
Helms, L. (2020). Heir Apparent Prime Ministers in Westminster Democracies: Promise and Performance. Government and Opposition, 55(2), 260-282. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.22
Holbrook, T. M. (2001). Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale. PS: Political Science & Politics, 34(1), 39–44. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096501000063
Jennings, W., Lewis-Beck, M. & Wlezien, C. (2020). Election forecasting: Too far out? International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 949-962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002
Jérôme, B., Jérôme, V., Mongrain, P. & Nadeau, R. (2020). State-level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 77-80. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096520001377
Jerôme, B. & Jerome-Speziari, V. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(4), 663–668. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000972
Kou, S. G. & Sobel, M. E. (2004). Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls. Political Analysis, 12(3), 277–295.
Lebo, M. J. & Norpoth, H. (2006). The PM and the pendulum: Dynamic forecasting of British elections. British Journal of Political Science, 37(1),71-87. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mph019
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and practice. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145–164. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856X.2005.00178.x
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, E., & Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2008). Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model. French Politics, 6(2), 106–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ fp.2008.2
Lewis-Beck, M. S. & Tien, C. (2012). Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(4), 625–629. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000893
Ley, S. (2018). To Vote or Not to Vote: How Criminal Violence Shapes Electoral Participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(9), 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Royes, G. F. & Cid Bastos, R. (2006). Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting. Decision Support Systems, 42(1), 25–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2004.09.009
Singer, M. M. & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Stiglitz, J. (2012). The price of inequality. Penguin.
Stone, C. (1977). Class and Status Voting in Jamaica. Social and Economic Studies, 26(3), 279-293. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27861665
Stone, C. (1980). Democracy and clientelism in Jamaica. Transaction Books.
Stone, C. (1981). Public Opinion and the 1980 General Election in Jamaica. Caribbean Quarterly, 27(1), 1-19. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40653410
Stone, C. (1987). Class, state, and democracy in Jamaica. Blackett Publishers.
Stone, C. (1989). Politics versus economics: The 1989 elections in Jamaica. Heinemann.
Uang, R. S. (2013). Campaigning on Public Security in Latin America: Obstacles to Success. Latin American Politics and Society, 55(2), 25-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2013.00192.x
Virtue, E. (2019, March 12). Political blunder! Opposition stands alone as J’cans side with Gov’t on SOEs. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/20190312/political-blunder-opposition-stands-alone-jcans-side-govt-soes
Weyland, K. (2020). Populism’s Threat to Democracy. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2), 389-406. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592719003955
Whiteley, P. (1984). Perceptions of economic performance and voting behaviour in the 1983 general election in Britain. Political Behaviour, 6(4), 395-410. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00987074
Wood, B. D. (2004). Presidential rhetoric and economic leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 34(3), 573-606. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27552614
World Bank (2020, April 13). The World Bank in Jamaica. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jamaica/overview
Charles, C. A. D. ., Dempster, D. ., & Welcome, T. (2022). O Papel da Economia, da Segurança e da Aceitação do Líder do Partido na Previsão das Eleições Gerais de 2020 na Jamaica. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 109–128. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25430
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