El papel de la economía, la seguridad y la aceptación de los líderes de partido en la previsión de los resultados de las elecciones generales del 2020 en Jamaica
Resumen Entre los meses de enero y marzo del 2020 se construyeron tres modelos econométricos para predecir los resultados de las elecciones generales del 3 de septiembre de 2020 en Jamaica. El Modelo 1 era un modelo de economía y seguridad; el Modelo 2 un modelo de economía y seguridad con los niveles de aceptación del líder del Partido Laborista de Jamaica (JLP, por sus siglas en inglés), y el Modelo 3 un modelo de economía y seguridad con los niveles de aceptación del líder del Partido Nacional del Pueblo (PNP). Los tres modelos acertaron al proyectar una victoria electoral para el JLP. Como validación cruzada de los datos, se utilizó el método “Jack-knife” para realizar un remuestreo. Estos modelos demuestran que, como ya venían señalando otros estudios, los resultados electorales se ven influidos tanto por la macroeconomía, como por los problemas de seguridad y la popularidad del líder del partido. Sin embargo, se debe tener en cuenta la idiosincrasia del Caribe anglófono, ya que los votantes jamaicanos no responden a los problemas económicos y de seguridad de la misma manera que los votantes del Norte global. Por ejemplo, el aumento tanto del coeficiente deuda/PIB como de la tasa de homicidios llevaron a la proyección de una victoria electoral del JLP. Se necesitaría replicar el presente estudio en el Caribe y Latinoamérica utilizando datos de panel.
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Whiteley, P. (1984). Perceptions of economic performance and voting behaviour in the 1983 general election in Britain. Political Behaviour, 6(4), 395-410. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00987074
Wood, B. D. (2004). Presidential rhetoric and economic leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 34(3), 573-606. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27552614
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Bélanger, E. & Godbout, J. (2010). Forecasting Canadian federal elections. Political Science and Politics, 43(4), 691-699. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40927037
Charles. C. A. D. (2009). Newspaper representations of Portia Simpson-Miller’s abstention in parliament and Westminster politics in Jamaica. Ideaz, 8, 25-49. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2372153
Charles, C. A. D. (2020, August 30). Why the JLP will win the 2020 General Election. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/20200830/why-jlp-will-win-2020-general-election
Charles, C. A. D. & Reid, G. S. O. (2016). Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica. Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 54(4), 449-477. https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2016.1216729
Charles, C. A. D., Reid, G. S. O. & Albarus, N. (2019). A method for election forecasting. Sage research methods cases. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781526490803
Charles, C. A. D. & Dempster, D. (2020, September 9). Assessing leadership traits and the JLP win. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/commentary/20200909/christopher-charles-and-dalkeith-dempster-assessing-leadership-traits
Dassonneville, R. & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2014). Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool. Acta Politica, 49, 372-394.
https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2014.12
Denham, A. (2017). Choosing party leaders: Anglophone democracies, British parties and the limits of comparative politics. British Politics, 12(2), 250-266. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-016-0022-8
Edie, C. J. (2011). The 2007 Parliamentary Election: The Jamaica Labour Party’s Return to Power. Social and Economic Studies, 60(2), 1-39. http://www.jstor.com/stable/41635301
Ellis, H. (1991). Identifying Crime Correlates in a Developing Society: A Study of Socio-Economic and Socio-Demographic Contributions to Crime in Jamaica, 1950-1984. Peter Lang Publishing Company.
Gendreau, P. & Surridge, C. T. (1978). Controlling Gun Crimes - the Jamaican Experience. International Journal of Criminology and Penology, 6(1), 43-60. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/controlling-gun-crimes-jamaican-experience
González, F. E. & Young, G. (2017). The resurgence and spread of populism? SAIS Review of International Studies, 37(1), 3-18. https://doi.org/10.1353/sais.2017.0001
Guseh, J. S. (1996). The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Presidential Elections. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 26(2), 415-424. http://www.jstor.com/stable/27551588
Hagerty, M. R. (2006). Quality of Life from the Voting Booth: The Effect of Crime Rates and Income on Recent U.S. Presidential Elections. Social Indicators Research, 77(2), 197-210. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27522579
Helms, L. (2020). Heir Apparent Prime Ministers in Westminster Democracies: Promise and Performance. Government and Opposition, 55(2), 260-282. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.22
Holbrook, T. M. (2001). Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale. PS: Political Science & Politics, 34(1), 39–44. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096501000063
Jennings, W., Lewis-Beck, M. & Wlezien, C. (2020). Election forecasting: Too far out? International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 949-962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002
Jérôme, B., Jérôme, V., Mongrain, P. & Nadeau, R. (2020). State-level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 77-80. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096520001377
Jerôme, B. & Jerome-Speziari, V. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(4), 663–668. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000972
Kou, S. G. & Sobel, M. E. (2004). Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls. Political Analysis, 12(3), 277–295.
Lebo, M. J. & Norpoth, H. (2006). The PM and the pendulum: Dynamic forecasting of British elections. British Journal of Political Science, 37(1),71-87. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mph019
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and practice. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145–164. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856X.2005.00178.x
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, E., & Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2008). Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model. French Politics, 6(2), 106–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ fp.2008.2
Lewis-Beck, M. S. & Tien, C. (2012). Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(4), 625–629. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000893
Ley, S. (2018). To Vote or Not to Vote: How Criminal Violence Shapes Electoral Participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(9), 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Royes, G. F. & Cid Bastos, R. (2006). Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting. Decision Support Systems, 42(1), 25–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2004.09.009
Singer, M. M. & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000467
Stiglitz, J. (2012). The price of inequality. Penguin.
Stone, C. (1977). Class and Status Voting in Jamaica. Social and Economic Studies, 26(3), 279-293. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27861665
Stone, C. (1980). Democracy and clientelism in Jamaica. Transaction Books.
Stone, C. (1981). Public Opinion and the 1980 General Election in Jamaica. Caribbean Quarterly, 27(1), 1-19. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40653410
Stone, C. (1987). Class, state, and democracy in Jamaica. Blackett Publishers.
Stone, C. (1989). Politics versus economics: The 1989 elections in Jamaica. Heinemann.
Uang, R. S. (2013). Campaigning on Public Security in Latin America: Obstacles to Success. Latin American Politics and Society, 55(2), 25-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2013.00192.x
Virtue, E. (2019, March 12). Political blunder! Opposition stands alone as J’cans side with Gov’t on SOEs. The Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/20190312/political-blunder-opposition-stands-alone-jcans-side-govt-soes
Weyland, K. (2020). Populism’s Threat to Democracy. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2), 389-406. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592719003955
Whiteley, P. (1984). Perceptions of economic performance and voting behaviour in the 1983 general election in Britain. Political Behaviour, 6(4), 395-410. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00987074
Wood, B. D. (2004). Presidential rhetoric and economic leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 34(3), 573-606. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27552614
World Bank (2020, April 13). The World Bank in Jamaica. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jamaica/overview
Charles, C. A. D. ., Dempster, D. ., & Welcome, T. (2022). El papel de la economía, la seguridad y la aceptación de los líderes de partido en la previsión de los resultados de las elecciones generales del 2020 en Jamaica. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 109–128. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25430
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