The Rise of Alternative Presidential Candidates in Chile, 2009-2017
Abstract This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financial prospects—comprise this subgroup.
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Alemán, E., & S. M. Saiegh. (2007). Legislative preferences, political parties, and coalition unity in Chile. Comparative Politics, 39(3), 253-272
Angell, A. (2003). Party Change in Chile in Comparative Perspective. Revista de Ciencia Politica, 23(2), 88-108.
Bargsted, M., & L. Maldonado. (2018). Party Identification in an Encapsulated Party System: The Case of Postauthoritarian Chile. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 10(1), 29-68.
Bargsted, M., N. M. Somma, & B. Muñoz Rojas. (2019). Participación Electoral en Chile. Una Aproximación de Edad, Período y Cohorte. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-441.
Barr, R. R. (2009). Populists, Outsiders and Anti-Establishment Politics. Party Politics, 15(1), 29-48.
Bartels, L. M., J. E. Oliver, & W. M. Rahn. (2016). Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 667(1), 189-206.
Bowler, S., & D. J. Lanoue. (1992). Strategic and Protest Voting for Third Parties: the Case of the Canadian NDP. Political Research Quarterly, 45(2), 485-499.
Bunker, K., & P. Navia. (2015). Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009. Revista de Ciencia Política, 35(2), 251-271.
Carey, J. M. (2002). Parties, Coalitions and the Chilean Congress in the 1990s. In S. Morgenstern & B. Nacif (Eds.), Legislative Politics in Latin America (pp. 223-253). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, R. E., M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister. (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Carreras, M. (2012). The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980-2010: An Institutionalist Perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 45(12), 1451-82
Carreras, M. (2014). Outsiders and Executive-Legislative Conflict in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 56(3), 70-92.
Carreras, M., S. Morgenstern, & Y. P. Su. (2015). Refining the Theory of Partisan Alignments: Evidence from Latin America. Party Politics, 21(5), 671-85.
Centro de Estudios Públicos (No Date). Encuesta CEP. Accessed December 17 2019, https://www.cepchile.cl/cep/site/edic/base/port/encuestasCEP.html
Contreras, G., & P. Navia. (2013). Diferencias Generacionales en la Participación Electoral en Chile, 1988-2010. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-442.
Contreras, D., & K. Sehnbruch. (2014). Social Policies: From Social Debt to Welfare State?. In K. Sehnbruch & P. M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 243-262). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Coppedge, M. (1998). The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems. Party Politics, 4(4), 547-568.
Dix, R. (1989). Cleavage Structures and Party Systems in Latin America. Comparative Politics, 22(1), 23-37.
Dow, J. K. (1998). A spatial analysis of candidates competition in dual member districts: the 1989 Chilean senatorial election. Public Choice, 97, 451-474.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150.
Duch, R. M., & R. T. Stevenson. (2008). The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Duverger, M. (1967). Les Partis politiques (6th edition). Paris: Armand Colin.
Etchegaray, N., A. Scherman, & S.Valenzuela. (2019). Testing the hypothesis of «impressionable years» with willingness to self-censor in Chile. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 31(2), 331-348.
Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gélineau, F., & M. M. Singer. (2015). The Economy and Incumbent Support in Latin America. In R. E. Carlin, M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 281-299). Ann-Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Hagopian, F. (1998). Democracy and Political Representation in Latin America in the 1990s: Pause, Reorganization, or Decline? In F. Agüero & J. Stark (Eds.), Fault Lines of Democracy in Post-Transition Latin America (pp. 99-143). Miami: Nort-South Center Press.
Hirano, S., & J. M. Snyder Jr. (2007). The Decline of Third-Party Voting in the United States. Journal of Politics, 69(1), 1-16.
Indridason, I. H. (2012). Expressive Motives and Third-Party Candidates. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 25(2), 182-213.
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, R. & C. Welzel (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lacy, D., & Q. Monson. (2002). The Origins and Impact of Votes for Third-Party Candidates: A Case Study of the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(2), 409-437.
Landerretche, Ó. (2014). Economic Policy and the Ideology of Stability. In K. Sehnbruch and P.M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 173-198). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Levitsky, S. & M. Cameron. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-33.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. C. Ratto. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-93.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Paldam. (2000). Economic Voting: An Introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2/3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Stegmaier. (2013). The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After Over 40 Years. Public Choice, 157(3/4), 367-385.
Lipset, S. M., & S. Rokkan (Eds.). 1967. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
Londregan, J. B. (2007). Legislative institutions and ideology in Chile. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Luna, J. P., & D. Altman. (2011). Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(2), 1-28.
Lupu, N. (2010)/ Who Votes for chavismo?: Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. Latin American Research Review, 45(1), 7-32.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In R. Carlin, M. S., & E. Zeichmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 226-245). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lupu, N. (2016a). Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, N. (2016b). Building Party Brands in Argentina and Brazil. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 76-99). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Magee, C. S. P. (2003). Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election. Social Science Quarterly, 84(3), 571-595.
Mainwaring, S. P., & T. R. Scully (Eds.). (1995). Building Democratic Institutions. Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mayorga, R. (2006). Outsiders and Neopopulism: The Road to Plebiscitary Democracy. In S. Mainwaring, A. Bejarano, & E. Pizarro Leongomez (Eds.), The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Stanford, Stanford University Press.
Montes, J. E., S. M., & E. Ortega. (2000). Rethinking the Chilean Party Systems. Journal of Latin American Studies, 32(3), 795-824.
Morales, M., P. Navia, & R. Briceño. (2009). El Genoma Electoral Chileno. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Morgenstern, S., J. Polga-Hecimovich, & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Seven imperatives for improving the measurement of party nationalization with evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies, 33, 186-199.
Navia, P., & R. Osorio. (2015). It’s the Christian Democrats’ Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957-2012. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique, 48(4), 815-38.
Nadeau, R., M. S. Lewis-Beck, É. Bélanger, M. Turgeon, & F. Gélineau. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Navia, P., & M. Morales. (2012). El Sismo Electoral de 2009. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Norris, P., & R. Inglehart. (2019). Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Observatorio Político Electoral. No date. Base Historica Electoral.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M., & E. Wibbels. (1999). Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. The American Political Science Review, 93(3), 575-590.
Roberts, K. M. (2014). Changing Course in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M. (2016). Historical Timing, Political Cleavages, and Party-Building in Latin America. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 51-75). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosenston, S. J., R. L. Behr, & E. H. Lazarus. (1984). Third Parties in America: Citizens Response to Major Party Failure. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Rubenson, D., A. Blais, P. Fournier, E. Gidengil, & N. Nevitte (2004). Accounting for the Age Gap in Turnout. Acta Politica, 39: 407-421.
Scarrow, H. A. (1986). Duverger’s Law, Fusion, and the Decline of American «Third» Parties. Political Research Quarterly, 39(4), 634-647.
Servicio Electoral de Chile. (No date). Sitio Histórico de Resultados Electorales. Last accessed December 17 2019, https://historico.servel.cl/
Siavelis, P. M. (1997). Continuity and change in the Chilean party system: on the transformational effects of electoral reform. Comparative Political Studies, 30(6), 651-674.
Siavelis, P. M. 2002. Coalitions, Voters and Party System Transformation in Post-authoritarian Chile. Government and Opposition, 37(1), 76-105.
Siavelis, P. M. (2004). Sistema Electoral, Desintegración de Coaliciones y democracia en Chile. ¿El fin de la Concertación? Revista de Ciencia Política, 24(1), 58-80.
Somma, N. G., J. S. Valenzuela, & T. R. Scully. (2018). Resilience and Change: The Party System in Redemocratized Chile. In S. Mainwaring (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse (pp. 135-163). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Southwell, P. L., & M. J. Everest. (1998). The Electoral Consequences of Alienation: Nonvoting and Protest Voting in the 1992 Presidential Race. The Social Science Journal, 35(1), 43-51.
Southwell, P. L. (2003). The Politics of Alienation: Nonvoting and Support for Third-Party Candidates Among 18-30-year-olds. The Social Science Journal, 40(1), 99-107.
Scully, T. R. (1992). Rethinking the Center: Cleavages, Critical Junctures, and Party Evolution in Chile. Stanford: Stanford University Press
Sehnbruch, K., & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers Boulder.
Siavelis, P. (1997). Continuity and change in the Chilean party system: on the transformational effects of electoral reform. Comparative Political Studies, 30(6), 651-674.
Siavelis, P. (2000). The President and Congress in Postauthoritarian Chile. University Park: Penn State University Press.
Tironi, E., & F. Agüero. (1999). ¿Sobrevivirá El Nuevo Paisaje Político Chileno? Estudios Públicos, 74, 151-68.
Torcal, M., & S. Mainwaring. (2003). The Political Recrafting of Social Bases of Party Competition: Chile, 1973-95. British Journal of Political Science, 33(1), 55-84.
Valenzuela, J. S. (1995). Orígenes y Transformaciones del Sistema de Partidos en Chile. Estudios Públicos, 58, 5-80.
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Valenzuela, J. S, N. Somma, & T. R. Scully. (2018). Resilience and Change: The Party System in Redemocratized Chile. In S. Mainwaring (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse (pp. 135-163). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Weyland, K. (2003). Economic Voting Reconsidered: Crisis and Charisma in the Election of Hugo Chavez. Comparative Political Studies, 36(7), 822-848.
Zechmeister, E. J. (2015). Left-Right Identifications and the Latin American Voter. In R.E. Carlin, M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 195-225). Ann-Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Alemán, E., & S. M. Saiegh. (2007). Legislative preferences, political parties, and coalition unity in Chile. Comparative Politics, 39(3), 253-272
Angell, A. (2003). Party Change in Chile in Comparative Perspective. Revista de Ciencia Politica, 23(2), 88-108.
Bargsted, M., & L. Maldonado. (2018). Party Identification in an Encapsulated Party System: The Case of Postauthoritarian Chile. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 10(1), 29-68.
Bargsted, M., N. M. Somma, & B. Muñoz Rojas. (2019). Participación Electoral en Chile. Una Aproximación de Edad, Período y Cohorte. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-441.
Barr, R. R. (2009). Populists, Outsiders and Anti-Establishment Politics. Party Politics, 15(1), 29-48.
Bartels, L. M., J. E. Oliver, & W. M. Rahn. (2016). Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 667(1), 189-206.
Bowler, S., & D. J. Lanoue. (1992). Strategic and Protest Voting for Third Parties: the Case of the Canadian NDP. Political Research Quarterly, 45(2), 485-499.
Bunker, K., & P. Navia. (2015). Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009. Revista de Ciencia Política, 35(2), 251-271.
Carey, J. M. (2002). Parties, Coalitions and the Chilean Congress in the 1990s. In S. Morgenstern & B. Nacif (Eds.), Legislative Politics in Latin America (pp. 223-253). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, R. E., M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister. (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Carreras, M. (2012). The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980-2010: An Institutionalist Perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 45(12), 1451-82
Carreras, M. (2014). Outsiders and Executive-Legislative Conflict in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 56(3), 70-92.
Carreras, M., S. Morgenstern, & Y. P. Su. (2015). Refining the Theory of Partisan Alignments: Evidence from Latin America. Party Politics, 21(5), 671-85.
Centro de Estudios Públicos (No Date). Encuesta CEP. Accessed December 17 2019, https://www.cepchile.cl/cep/site/edic/base/port/encuestasCEP.html
Contreras, G., & P. Navia. (2013). Diferencias Generacionales en la Participación Electoral en Chile, 1988-2010. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-442.
Contreras, D., & K. Sehnbruch. (2014). Social Policies: From Social Debt to Welfare State?. In K. Sehnbruch & P. M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 243-262). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Coppedge, M. (1998). The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems. Party Politics, 4(4), 547-568.
Dix, R. (1989). Cleavage Structures and Party Systems in Latin America. Comparative Politics, 22(1), 23-37.
Dow, J. K. (1998). A spatial analysis of candidates competition in dual member districts: the 1989 Chilean senatorial election. Public Choice, 97, 451-474.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150.
Duch, R. M., & R. T. Stevenson. (2008). The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Duverger, M. (1967). Les Partis politiques (6th edition). Paris: Armand Colin.
Etchegaray, N., A. Scherman, & S.Valenzuela. (2019). Testing the hypothesis of «impressionable years» with willingness to self-censor in Chile. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 31(2), 331-348.
Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gélineau, F., & M. M. Singer. (2015). The Economy and Incumbent Support in Latin America. In R. E. Carlin, M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 281-299). Ann-Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Hagopian, F. (1998). Democracy and Political Representation in Latin America in the 1990s: Pause, Reorganization, or Decline? In F. Agüero & J. Stark (Eds.), Fault Lines of Democracy in Post-Transition Latin America (pp. 99-143). Miami: Nort-South Center Press.
Hirano, S., & J. M. Snyder Jr. (2007). The Decline of Third-Party Voting in the United States. Journal of Politics, 69(1), 1-16.
Indridason, I. H. (2012). Expressive Motives and Third-Party Candidates. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 25(2), 182-213.
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, R. & C. Welzel (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lacy, D., & Q. Monson. (2002). The Origins and Impact of Votes for Third-Party Candidates: A Case Study of the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(2), 409-437.
Landerretche, Ó. (2014). Economic Policy and the Ideology of Stability. In K. Sehnbruch and P.M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 173-198). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Levitsky, S. & M. Cameron. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-33.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. C. Ratto. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-93.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Paldam. (2000). Economic Voting: An Introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2/3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Stegmaier. (2013). The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After Over 40 Years. Public Choice, 157(3/4), 367-385.
Lipset, S. M., & S. Rokkan (Eds.). 1967. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
Londregan, J. B. (2007). Legislative institutions and ideology in Chile. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Luna, J. P., & D. Altman. (2011). Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(2), 1-28.
Lupu, N. (2010)/ Who Votes for chavismo?: Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. Latin American Research Review, 45(1), 7-32.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In R. Carlin, M. S., & E. Zeichmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 226-245). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lupu, N. (2016a). Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, N. (2016b). Building Party Brands in Argentina and Brazil. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 76-99). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Magee, C. S. P. (2003). Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election. Social Science Quarterly, 84(3), 571-595.
Mainwaring, S. P., & T. R. Scully (Eds.). (1995). Building Democratic Institutions. Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mayorga, R. (2006). Outsiders and Neopopulism: The Road to Plebiscitary Democracy. In S. Mainwaring, A. Bejarano, & E. Pizarro Leongomez (Eds.), The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Stanford, Stanford University Press.
Montes, J. E., S. M., & E. Ortega. (2000). Rethinking the Chilean Party Systems. Journal of Latin American Studies, 32(3), 795-824.
Morales, M., P. Navia, & R. Briceño. (2009). El Genoma Electoral Chileno. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Morgenstern, S., J. Polga-Hecimovich, & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Seven imperatives for improving the measurement of party nationalization with evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies, 33, 186-199.
Navia, P., & R. Osorio. (2015). It’s the Christian Democrats’ Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957-2012. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique, 48(4), 815-38.
Nadeau, R., M. S. Lewis-Beck, É. Bélanger, M. Turgeon, & F. Gélineau. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Navia, P., & M. Morales. (2012). El Sismo Electoral de 2009. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Norris, P., & R. Inglehart. (2019). Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Observatorio Político Electoral. No date. Base Historica Electoral.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M., & E. Wibbels. (1999). Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. The American Political Science Review, 93(3), 575-590.
Roberts, K. M. (2014). Changing Course in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M. (2016). Historical Timing, Political Cleavages, and Party-Building in Latin America. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 51-75). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosenston, S. J., R. L. Behr, & E. H. Lazarus. (1984). Third Parties in America: Citizens Response to Major Party Failure. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Rubenson, D., A. Blais, P. Fournier, E. Gidengil, & N. Nevitte (2004). Accounting for the Age Gap in Turnout. Acta Politica, 39: 407-421.
Scarrow, H. A. (1986). Duverger’s Law, Fusion, and the Decline of American «Third» Parties. Political Research Quarterly, 39(4), 634-647.
Servicio Electoral de Chile. (No date). Sitio Histórico de Resultados Electorales. Last accessed December 17 2019, https://historico.servel.cl/
Siavelis, P. M. (1997). Continuity and change in the Chilean party system: on the transformational effects of electoral reform. Comparative Political Studies, 30(6), 651-674.
Siavelis, P. M. 2002. Coalitions, Voters and Party System Transformation in Post-authoritarian Chile. Government and Opposition, 37(1), 76-105.
Siavelis, P. M. (2004). Sistema Electoral, Desintegración de Coaliciones y democracia en Chile. ¿El fin de la Concertación? Revista de Ciencia Política, 24(1), 58-80.
Somma, N. G., J. S. Valenzuela, & T. R. Scully. (2018). Resilience and Change: The Party System in Redemocratized Chile. In S. Mainwaring (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse (pp. 135-163). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Southwell, P. L., & M. J. Everest. (1998). The Electoral Consequences of Alienation: Nonvoting and Protest Voting in the 1992 Presidential Race. The Social Science Journal, 35(1), 43-51.
Southwell, P. L. (2003). The Politics of Alienation: Nonvoting and Support for Third-Party Candidates Among 18-30-year-olds. The Social Science Journal, 40(1), 99-107.
Scully, T. R. (1992). Rethinking the Center: Cleavages, Critical Junctures, and Party Evolution in Chile. Stanford: Stanford University Press
Sehnbruch, K., & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers Boulder.
Siavelis, P. (1997). Continuity and change in the Chilean party system: on the transformational effects of electoral reform. Comparative Political Studies, 30(6), 651-674.
Siavelis, P. (2000). The President and Congress in Postauthoritarian Chile. University Park: Penn State University Press.
Tironi, E., & F. Agüero. (1999). ¿Sobrevivirá El Nuevo Paisaje Político Chileno? Estudios Públicos, 74, 151-68.
Torcal, M., & S. Mainwaring. (2003). The Political Recrafting of Social Bases of Party Competition: Chile, 1973-95. British Journal of Political Science, 33(1), 55-84.
Valenzuela, J. S. (1995). Orígenes y Transformaciones del Sistema de Partidos en Chile. Estudios Públicos, 58, 5-80.
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