El auge de candidatos presidenciales alternativos en Chile, 2009-2017
Resumen Este artículo explora la creciente popularidad de los candidatos presidenciales alternativos —aquellos que no pertenecen a las dos coaliciones dominantes— en Chile entre 2009 y 2017. Luego de una discusión teórica que se centra en las causas del descontento de los votantes con el establishment político, formulamos cuatro hipótesis. Consideramos que el apoyo hacia candidatos presidenciales alternativos corresponde a una función del desapego ideológico, la disminución de participación política, el voto económico y cambios sociodemográficos en el electorado. Utilizamos tres encuestas pre-electorales del Centro de Estudios Públicos para presentar modelos probit y probabilidades predichas. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que un segmento específico de votantes chilenos está detrás del auge de candidatos presidenciales alternativos. Este subgrupo está compuesto por votantes más jóvenes y educados. Dichos votantes también se identifican menos con la escala ideológica izquierda-derecha y los partidos políticos tradicionales. A su vez, el subgrupo sufre de ansiedad económica, ya que consideran que la economía se desempeña bien a nivel nacional, mientras se mantienen pesimistas sobre sus perspectivas financieras.
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Bargsted, M., N. M. Somma, & B. Muñoz Rojas. (2019). Participación Electoral en Chile. Una Aproximación de Edad, Período y Cohorte. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-441.
Barr, R. R. (2009). Populists, Outsiders and Anti-Establishment Politics. Party Politics, 15(1), 29-48.
Bartels, L. M., J. E. Oliver, & W. M. Rahn. (2016). Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 667(1), 189-206.
Bowler, S., & D. J. Lanoue. (1992). Strategic and Protest Voting for Third Parties: the Case of the Canadian NDP. Political Research Quarterly, 45(2), 485-499.
Bunker, K., & P. Navia. (2015). Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009. Revista de Ciencia Política, 35(2), 251-271.
Carey, J. M. (2002). Parties, Coalitions and the Chilean Congress in the 1990s. In S. Morgenstern & B. Nacif (Eds.), Legislative Politics in Latin America (pp. 223-253). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, R. E., M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister. (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Carreras, M. (2012). The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980-2010: An Institutionalist Perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 45(12), 1451-82
Carreras, M. (2014). Outsiders and Executive-Legislative Conflict in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 56(3), 70-92.
Carreras, M., S. Morgenstern, & Y. P. Su. (2015). Refining the Theory of Partisan Alignments: Evidence from Latin America. Party Politics, 21(5), 671-85.
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Hirano, S., & J. M. Snyder Jr. (2007). The Decline of Third-Party Voting in the United States. Journal of Politics, 69(1), 1-16.
Indridason, I. H. (2012). Expressive Motives and Third-Party Candidates. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 25(2), 182-213.
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, R. & C. Welzel (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lacy, D., & Q. Monson. (2002). The Origins and Impact of Votes for Third-Party Candidates: A Case Study of the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(2), 409-437.
Landerretche, Ó. (2014). Economic Policy and the Ideology of Stability. In K. Sehnbruch and P.M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 173-198). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Levitsky, S. & M. Cameron. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-33.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. C. Ratto. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-93.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Paldam. (2000). Economic Voting: An Introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2/3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Stegmaier. (2013). The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After Over 40 Years. Public Choice, 157(3/4), 367-385.
Lipset, S. M., & S. Rokkan (Eds.). 1967. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
Londregan, J. B. (2007). Legislative institutions and ideology in Chile. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Luna, J. P., & D. Altman. (2011). Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(2), 1-28.
Lupu, N. (2010)/ Who Votes for chavismo?: Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. Latin American Research Review, 45(1), 7-32.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In R. Carlin, M. S., & E. Zeichmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 226-245). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lupu, N. (2016a). Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, N. (2016b). Building Party Brands in Argentina and Brazil. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 76-99). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Magee, C. S. P. (2003). Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election. Social Science Quarterly, 84(3), 571-595.
Mainwaring, S. P., & T. R. Scully (Eds.). (1995). Building Democratic Institutions. Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
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Montes, J. E., S. M., & E. Ortega. (2000). Rethinking the Chilean Party Systems. Journal of Latin American Studies, 32(3), 795-824.
Morales, M., P. Navia, & R. Briceño. (2009). El Genoma Electoral Chileno. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Morgenstern, S., J. Polga-Hecimovich, & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Seven imperatives for improving the measurement of party nationalization with evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies, 33, 186-199.
Navia, P., & R. Osorio. (2015). It’s the Christian Democrats’ Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957-2012. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique, 48(4), 815-38.
Nadeau, R., M. S. Lewis-Beck, É. Bélanger, M. Turgeon, & F. Gélineau. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
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Norris, P., & R. Inglehart. (2019). Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Observatorio Político Electoral. No date. Base Historica Electoral.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M., & E. Wibbels. (1999). Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. The American Political Science Review, 93(3), 575-590.
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Roberts, K. M. (2016). Historical Timing, Political Cleavages, and Party-Building in Latin America. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 51-75). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosenston, S. J., R. L. Behr, & E. H. Lazarus. (1984). Third Parties in America: Citizens Response to Major Party Failure. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Rubenson, D., A. Blais, P. Fournier, E. Gidengil, & N. Nevitte (2004). Accounting for the Age Gap in Turnout. Acta Politica, 39: 407-421.
Scarrow, H. A. (1986). Duverger’s Law, Fusion, and the Decline of American «Third» Parties. Political Research Quarterly, 39(4), 634-647.
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Siavelis, P. M. (2004). Sistema Electoral, Desintegración de Coaliciones y democracia en Chile. ¿El fin de la Concertación? Revista de Ciencia Política, 24(1), 58-80.
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Alemán, E., & S. M. Saiegh. (2007). Legislative preferences, political parties, and coalition unity in Chile. Comparative Politics, 39(3), 253-272
Angell, A. (2003). Party Change in Chile in Comparative Perspective. Revista de Ciencia Politica, 23(2), 88-108.
Bargsted, M., & L. Maldonado. (2018). Party Identification in an Encapsulated Party System: The Case of Postauthoritarian Chile. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 10(1), 29-68.
Bargsted, M., N. M. Somma, & B. Muñoz Rojas. (2019). Participación Electoral en Chile. Una Aproximación de Edad, Período y Cohorte. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-441.
Barr, R. R. (2009). Populists, Outsiders and Anti-Establishment Politics. Party Politics, 15(1), 29-48.
Bartels, L. M., J. E. Oliver, & W. M. Rahn. (2016). Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 667(1), 189-206.
Bowler, S., & D. J. Lanoue. (1992). Strategic and Protest Voting for Third Parties: the Case of the Canadian NDP. Political Research Quarterly, 45(2), 485-499.
Bunker, K., & P. Navia. (2015). Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009. Revista de Ciencia Política, 35(2), 251-271.
Carey, J. M. (2002). Parties, Coalitions and the Chilean Congress in the 1990s. In S. Morgenstern & B. Nacif (Eds.), Legislative Politics in Latin America (pp. 223-253). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, R. E., M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister. (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Carreras, M. (2012). The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980-2010: An Institutionalist Perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 45(12), 1451-82
Carreras, M. (2014). Outsiders and Executive-Legislative Conflict in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 56(3), 70-92.
Carreras, M., S. Morgenstern, & Y. P. Su. (2015). Refining the Theory of Partisan Alignments: Evidence from Latin America. Party Politics, 21(5), 671-85.
Centro de Estudios Públicos (No Date). Encuesta CEP. Accessed December 17 2019, https://www.cepchile.cl/cep/site/edic/base/port/encuestasCEP.html
Contreras, G., & P. Navia. (2013). Diferencias Generacionales en la Participación Electoral en Chile, 1988-2010. Revista de Ciencia Política, 33(2), 419-442.
Contreras, D., & K. Sehnbruch. (2014). Social Policies: From Social Debt to Welfare State?. In K. Sehnbruch & P. M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 243-262). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Coppedge, M. (1998). The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems. Party Politics, 4(4), 547-568.
Dix, R. (1989). Cleavage Structures and Party Systems in Latin America. Comparative Politics, 22(1), 23-37.
Dow, J. K. (1998). A spatial analysis of candidates competition in dual member districts: the 1989 Chilean senatorial election. Public Choice, 97, 451-474.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150.
Duch, R. M., & R. T. Stevenson. (2008). The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Duverger, M. (1967). Les Partis politiques (6th edition). Paris: Armand Colin.
Etchegaray, N., A. Scherman, & S.Valenzuela. (2019). Testing the hypothesis of «impressionable years» with willingness to self-censor in Chile. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 31(2), 331-348.
Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gélineau, F., & M. M. Singer. (2015). The Economy and Incumbent Support in Latin America. In R. E. Carlin, M. M. Singer, & E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 281-299). Ann-Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Hagopian, F. (1998). Democracy and Political Representation in Latin America in the 1990s: Pause, Reorganization, or Decline? In F. Agüero & J. Stark (Eds.), Fault Lines of Democracy in Post-Transition Latin America (pp. 99-143). Miami: Nort-South Center Press.
Hirano, S., & J. M. Snyder Jr. (2007). The Decline of Third-Party Voting in the United States. Journal of Politics, 69(1), 1-16.
Indridason, I. H. (2012). Expressive Motives and Third-Party Candidates. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 25(2), 182-213.
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, R. & C. Welzel (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lacy, D., & Q. Monson. (2002). The Origins and Impact of Votes for Third-Party Candidates: A Case Study of the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election. Political Research Quarterly, 55(2), 409-437.
Landerretche, Ó. (2014). Economic Policy and the Ideology of Stability. In K. Sehnbruch and P.M. Siavelis (Eds.), Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010 (pp. 173-198). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Levitsky, S. & M. Cameron. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-33.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. C. Ratto. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-93.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Paldam. (2000). Economic Voting: An Introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2/3), 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & M. Stegmaier. (2013). The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After Over 40 Years. Public Choice, 157(3/4), 367-385.
Lipset, S. M., & S. Rokkan (Eds.). 1967. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
Londregan, J. B. (2007). Legislative institutions and ideology in Chile. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Luna, J. P., & D. Altman. (2011). Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(2), 1-28.
Lupu, N. (2010)/ Who Votes for chavismo?: Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. Latin American Research Review, 45(1), 7-32.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In R. Carlin, M. S., & E. Zeichmeister (Eds.), The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (pp. 226-245). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lupu, N. (2016a). Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, N. (2016b). Building Party Brands in Argentina and Brazil. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 76-99). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Magee, C. S. P. (2003). Third-Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election. Social Science Quarterly, 84(3), 571-595.
Mainwaring, S. P., & T. R. Scully (Eds.). (1995). Building Democratic Institutions. Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Mayorga, R. (2006). Outsiders and Neopopulism: The Road to Plebiscitary Democracy. In S. Mainwaring, A. Bejarano, & E. Pizarro Leongomez (Eds.), The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Stanford, Stanford University Press.
Montes, J. E., S. M., & E. Ortega. (2000). Rethinking the Chilean Party Systems. Journal of Latin American Studies, 32(3), 795-824.
Morales, M., P. Navia, & R. Briceño. (2009). El Genoma Electoral Chileno. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Morgenstern, S., J. Polga-Hecimovich, & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Seven imperatives for improving the measurement of party nationalization with evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies, 33, 186-199.
Navia, P., & R. Osorio. (2015). It’s the Christian Democrats’ Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957-2012. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique, 48(4), 815-38.
Nadeau, R., M. S. Lewis-Beck, É. Bélanger, M. Turgeon, & F. Gélineau. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Navia, P., & M. Morales. (2012). El Sismo Electoral de 2009. Santiago, Chile: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.
Norris, P., & R. Inglehart. (2019). Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Observatorio Político Electoral. No date. Base Historica Electoral.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M., & E. Wibbels. (1999). Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. The American Political Science Review, 93(3), 575-590.
Roberts, K. M. (2014). Changing Course in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Roberts, K. M. (2016). Historical Timing, Political Cleavages, and Party-Building in Latin America. In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Dominguez (Eds.), Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America (pp. 51-75). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosenston, S. J., R. L. Behr, & E. H. Lazarus. (1984). Third Parties in America: Citizens Response to Major Party Failure. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Rubenson, D., A. Blais, P. Fournier, E. Gidengil, & N. Nevitte (2004). Accounting for the Age Gap in Turnout. Acta Politica, 39: 407-421.
Scarrow, H. A. (1986). Duverger’s Law, Fusion, and the Decline of American «Third» Parties. Political Research Quarterly, 39(4), 634-647.
Servicio Electoral de Chile. (No date). Sitio Histórico de Resultados Electorales. Last accessed December 17 2019, https://historico.servel.cl/
Siavelis, P. M. (1997). Continuity and change in the Chilean party system: on the transformational effects of electoral reform. Comparative Political Studies, 30(6), 651-674.
Siavelis, P. M. 2002. Coalitions, Voters and Party System Transformation in Post-authoritarian Chile. Government and Opposition, 37(1), 76-105.
Siavelis, P. M. (2004). Sistema Electoral, Desintegración de Coaliciones y democracia en Chile. ¿El fin de la Concertación? Revista de Ciencia Política, 24(1), 58-80.
Somma, N. G., J. S. Valenzuela, & T. R. Scully. (2018). Resilience and Change: The Party System in Redemocratized Chile. In S. Mainwaring (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse (pp. 135-163). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Southwell, P. L., & M. J. Everest. (1998). The Electoral Consequences of Alienation: Nonvoting and Protest Voting in the 1992 Presidential Race. The Social Science Journal, 35(1), 43-51.
Southwell, P. L. (2003). The Politics of Alienation: Nonvoting and Support for Third-Party Candidates Among 18-30-year-olds. The Social Science Journal, 40(1), 99-107.
Scully, T. R. (1992). Rethinking the Center: Cleavages, Critical Junctures, and Party Evolution in Chile. Stanford: Stanford University Press
Sehnbruch, K., & P. M. Siavelis. (2014). Democratic Chile: The Politics and Policies of a Historic Coalition, 1990-2010. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers Boulder.
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Siavelis, P. (2000). The President and Congress in Postauthoritarian Chile. University Park: Penn State University Press.
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