Covid-19 and Presidential Popularity in Latin America
Abstract The current pandemic challenged political leaders. As governments introduced containment policies, presidential approvals in several countries started to rise. This phenomenon brought back the discussion on the Rally-’round-the-Flag effect, which refers to the public's propensity to put aside political differences and support presidents during episodes of international crises. By focusing on four Latin American presidents, we analyze such effect and the conditions that mediate it, considering its significant variation in the region. We propose that the change in presidential popularity is short-lived and ultimately conditioned by the timing and stringency of the policy responses, the pandemic's framing, and the opposition's opportunities for policy criticism.
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DATA
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Inter-American Development Bank (2020). Coronavirus Impact Dashboard. http://www.iadb. org/en/topics-effectiveness-improving-lives/coronavirus-impact-dashboard.
Ipsos-Perú (2020). Novedades y encuestas. http://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/news-and-polls/ news.
Oraculus (2020). Indicadores: Aprobación presidencial. http://https://oraculus.mx/ aprobacion-presidencial/.
XP Investimentos (2020). Histórico de Pesquisas XP. http://www.conteudos.xpi.com.br/ politica/pesquisas-xp-2/.
Coppedge, M. et al. (2020). V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v10. [Dataset]. https://doi.org/ 10.23696/vdemds20.
Bol, D. et al. (2020). The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? European Journal of Political Research. Advanced online publica¬tion. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1475-6765.12401.
Castiglioni, R. (2020). La batalla de Chile contra el “Covid-19”. Agenda Pública El País. Re¬trieved from www.agendapublica.elpais.com/la-batalla-de-chile-contra-el-covid-19/.
Crayne, M., & Medeiros, K. (2020). Making sense of crisis: Charismatic, ideological, and prag¬matic leadership in response to COVID-19. American Psychologist. Advanced online pub¬lication. https://doi.org/ 10.1037/amp0000715.
Fuentes, C. (2020). Chile: Cambio constitucional, crisis social y corona¬virus. Agenda Pública El País. http://www.agendapublica.elpais.com/ chile-cambio-constitucional-crisis-social-y-coronavirus/.
Gallup International Association (2020). The Coronavirus: A vast scared majority around the world. Snap poll in 28 Countries. http://www.gallup-international.com/wp-content/up-loads/2020/03/GIA_SnapPoll_2020_COVID_Tables_final.pdf.
Hunter, W., & Power, T. (2019). Bolsonaro and Brazil’s illiberal backlash. Journal of Democ¬racy, 30(1), 68-82. https://doi.org/ 10.1353/JOD.2019.0005.
Klobovs, L. (2020). El impacto del coronavirus en la figura presidencial argentina. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.14201/rlop.23517.
Lasco, G. (2020). Medical populism and the COVID-19 pandemic. Global Public Health, 15(10), 1417-1429. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581.
Lewis-Beck, M., et al. (2004). Interrupted time-series design. In M. Lewis-Beck, et al. (Eds.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (pp. 516). Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
Lira, A. (April 3rd, 2020). Una bandera contra el coronavirus: Aprobaciones presidenciales en alza en tiempos de crisis. El Comercio. Retrieved from www.elcomercio.pe/politica/ coronavirus-aprobaciones-presidenciales-en-alza-analisis-del-efecto-de-los-tiempos-de-crisis-covid-19-martin-vizcarra-donald-trump-chile-peru-eeuu-argentina-noticia/.
Mueller, J. (1973). War, presidents and public opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Murray, S. (2017). The “rally-’round-the-flag” phenomenon and the diversionary use of force. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.518.
Paredes, M., & Encinas, D. (2020). Perú 2019: crisis política y salida institucional. Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2), 483-510. https://doi.org/ 10.4067/S0718-090X2020005000116.
Ponce de León, Z., & García, L. (2019). Perú 2018: la precariedad política en tiempos de Lava Jato. Revista de Ciencia Política, 39(2), 341-365. https://doi.org/ 10.4067/ S0718-090X2019000200341.
Shaw, D. (April 22nd, 2020). The coronavirus “rally ‘round the flag” bump and trump’s 2020 campaign. The International Scholar. Retrieved from www.theintlscholar.com/ periodical/2020/04/coronavirus-rally-round-the-flag-bump-trump-campaign.
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1475-6765.12425.
Smith, A. E. (2020). Covid vs. democracy: Brazil’s populist playbook. Journal of Democracy, 31(4), 76-90. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ covid-vs-democracy-brazils-populist-playbook/.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. (June 18th, 2020). Despite effort, Peru’s Covid-19 response fails. YaleGlobal Online. www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/despite-effort-perus-covid-19-response-fails.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P., & Camacho, G. (2019). Gobernabilidad y control politico. El equilibrio de poderes en la reforma política. Peru Hoy, 35, 39-54. https://www.desco.org.pe/recursos/ site/files/CONTENIDO/1292/02_Sosa_Camacho_PHj19.pdf.
The Economist (May 9th, 2020). Rallying round the flag Covid-19 has given most world leaders a temporary rise in popularity. The Economist. Retrieved from www. economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/09/covid-19-has-given-most-world-leaders-a-temporary-rise-in-popularity.
The Lancet (2020). COVID-19: too little, too late? The Lancet, 395(10226), 755. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30522-5.
Welp, Y. (2020). Perú, o la debilidad del Estado. Agenda Pública El País. http://www.agen-dapublica.elpais.com/peru-o-de-la-debilidad-del-estado/.
DATA
British Broadcast Corporation (2020). World: Latin America. BBC News. Retrieved from www.bbc.com/news/world/latin_america.
Cadem (2020). Plaza Pública. Retrieved from https://www.cadem.cl/encuestas/.
Hale, T. et al. (2020). Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker. https://covidtracker. bsg.ox.ac.uk/.
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (2020). Estudios de Opinión Pública. http://www.iep.org.pe/ noticias_categorias/opinion-publica/.
Inter-American Development Bank (2020). Coronavirus Impact Dashboard. http://www.iadb. org/en/topics-effectiveness-improving-lives/coronavirus-impact-dashboard.
Ipsos-Perú (2020). Novedades y encuestas. http://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/news-and-polls/ news.
Oraculus (2020). Indicadores: Aprobación presidencial. http://https://oraculus.mx/ aprobacion-presidencial/.
XP Investimentos (2020). Histórico de Pesquisas XP. http://www.conteudos.xpi.com.br/ politica/pesquisas-xp-2/.
Coppedge, M. et al. (2020). V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v10. [Dataset]. https://doi.org/ 10.23696/vdemds20.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P., & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2021). Covid-19 and Presidential Popularity in Latin America. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71–91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
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