Covid-19 e popularidade presidencial na América Latina
Resumo A atual pandemia apresentou desafios significativos para os líderes políticos. À medida que os governos introduziram políticas de contenção, a aprovação presidencial começou a aumentar em diferentes países. Este fenômeno reacendeu a discussão sobre o efeito “Rally-’round-the-Flag”. ou seja, a tendência dos cidadãos de colocar as diferenças de lado e apoiar os governos de forma unânime em tempos de crise. Ao nos concentrarmos em quatro presidentes latino-americanos, analisamos esse efeito e as condições que o mediam, considerando sua variação significativa na região. Propomos, em suma, que as mudanças na popularidade são efêmeras e condicionadas pelo rigor e rapidez da resposta, pelo seu enquadramento e pelas oportunidades para a oposição criticá-la.
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Hunter, W., & Power, T. (2019). Bolsonaro and Brazil’s illiberal backlash. Journal of Democ¬racy, 30(1), 68-82. https://doi.org/ 10.1353/JOD.2019.0005.
Klobovs, L. (2020). El impacto del coronavirus en la figura presidencial argentina. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.14201/rlop.23517.
Lasco, G. (2020). Medical populism and the COVID-19 pandemic. Global Public Health, 15(10), 1417-1429. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581.
Lewis-Beck, M., et al. (2004). Interrupted time-series design. In M. Lewis-Beck, et al. (Eds.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (pp. 516). Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
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Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1475-6765.12425.
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The Economist (May 9th, 2020). Rallying round the flag Covid-19 has given most world leaders a temporary rise in popularity. The Economist. Retrieved from www. economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/09/covid-19-has-given-most-world-leaders-a-temporary-rise-in-popularity.
The Lancet (2020). COVID-19: too little, too late? The Lancet, 395(10226), 755. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30522-5.
Welp, Y. (2020). Perú, o la debilidad del Estado. Agenda Pública El País. http://www.agen-dapublica.elpais.com/peru-o-de-la-debilidad-del-estado/.
DATA
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Cadem (2020). Plaza Pública. Retrieved from https://www.cadem.cl/encuestas/.
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Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (2020). Estudios de Opinión Pública. http://www.iep.org.pe/ noticias_categorias/opinion-publica/.
Inter-American Development Bank (2020). Coronavirus Impact Dashboard. http://www.iadb. org/en/topics-effectiveness-improving-lives/coronavirus-impact-dashboard.
Ipsos-Perú (2020). Novedades y encuestas. http://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/news-and-polls/ news.
Oraculus (2020). Indicadores: Aprobación presidencial. http://https://oraculus.mx/ aprobacion-presidencial/.
XP Investimentos (2020). Histórico de Pesquisas XP. http://www.conteudos.xpi.com.br/ politica/pesquisas-xp-2/.
Coppedge, M. et al. (2020). V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v10. [Dataset]. https://doi.org/ 10.23696/vdemds20.
Bol, D. et al. (2020). The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? European Journal of Political Research. Advanced online publica¬tion. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1475-6765.12401.
Castiglioni, R. (2020). La batalla de Chile contra el “Covid-19”. Agenda Pública El País. Re¬trieved from www.agendapublica.elpais.com/la-batalla-de-chile-contra-el-covid-19/.
Crayne, M., & Medeiros, K. (2020). Making sense of crisis: Charismatic, ideological, and prag¬matic leadership in response to COVID-19. American Psychologist. Advanced online pub¬lication. https://doi.org/ 10.1037/amp0000715.
Fuentes, C. (2020). Chile: Cambio constitucional, crisis social y corona¬virus. Agenda Pública El País. http://www.agendapublica.elpais.com/ chile-cambio-constitucional-crisis-social-y-coronavirus/.
Gallup International Association (2020). The Coronavirus: A vast scared majority around the world. Snap poll in 28 Countries. http://www.gallup-international.com/wp-content/up-loads/2020/03/GIA_SnapPoll_2020_COVID_Tables_final.pdf.
Hunter, W., & Power, T. (2019). Bolsonaro and Brazil’s illiberal backlash. Journal of Democ¬racy, 30(1), 68-82. https://doi.org/ 10.1353/JOD.2019.0005.
Klobovs, L. (2020). El impacto del coronavirus en la figura presidencial argentina. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.14201/rlop.23517.
Lasco, G. (2020). Medical populism and the COVID-19 pandemic. Global Public Health, 15(10), 1417-1429. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581.
Lewis-Beck, M., et al. (2004). Interrupted time-series design. In M. Lewis-Beck, et al. (Eds.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (pp. 516). Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
Lira, A. (April 3rd, 2020). Una bandera contra el coronavirus: Aprobaciones presidenciales en alza en tiempos de crisis. El Comercio. Retrieved from www.elcomercio.pe/politica/ coronavirus-aprobaciones-presidenciales-en-alza-analisis-del-efecto-de-los-tiempos-de-crisis-covid-19-martin-vizcarra-donald-trump-chile-peru-eeuu-argentina-noticia/.
Mueller, J. (1973). War, presidents and public opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Murray, S. (2017). The “rally-’round-the-flag” phenomenon and the diversionary use of force. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.518.
Paredes, M., & Encinas, D. (2020). Perú 2019: crisis política y salida institucional. Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2), 483-510. https://doi.org/ 10.4067/S0718-090X2020005000116.
Ponce de León, Z., & García, L. (2019). Perú 2018: la precariedad política en tiempos de Lava Jato. Revista de Ciencia Política, 39(2), 341-365. https://doi.org/ 10.4067/ S0718-090X2019000200341.
Shaw, D. (April 22nd, 2020). The coronavirus “rally ‘round the flag” bump and trump’s 2020 campaign. The International Scholar. Retrieved from www.theintlscholar.com/ periodical/2020/04/coronavirus-rally-round-the-flag-bump-trump-campaign.
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1475-6765.12425.
Smith, A. E. (2020). Covid vs. democracy: Brazil’s populist playbook. Journal of Democracy, 31(4), 76-90. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ covid-vs-democracy-brazils-populist-playbook/.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. (June 18th, 2020). Despite effort, Peru’s Covid-19 response fails. YaleGlobal Online. www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/despite-effort-perus-covid-19-response-fails.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P., & Camacho, G. (2019). Gobernabilidad y control politico. El equilibrio de poderes en la reforma política. Peru Hoy, 35, 39-54. https://www.desco.org.pe/recursos/ site/files/CONTENIDO/1292/02_Sosa_Camacho_PHj19.pdf.
The Economist (May 9th, 2020). Rallying round the flag Covid-19 has given most world leaders a temporary rise in popularity. The Economist. Retrieved from www. economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/09/covid-19-has-given-most-world-leaders-a-temporary-rise-in-popularity.
The Lancet (2020). COVID-19: too little, too late? The Lancet, 395(10226), 755. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30522-5.
Welp, Y. (2020). Perú, o la debilidad del Estado. Agenda Pública El País. http://www.agen-dapublica.elpais.com/peru-o-de-la-debilidad-del-estado/.
DATA
British Broadcast Corporation (2020). World: Latin America. BBC News. Retrieved from www.bbc.com/news/world/latin_america.
Cadem (2020). Plaza Pública. Retrieved from https://www.cadem.cl/encuestas/.
Hale, T. et al. (2020). Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker. https://covidtracker. bsg.ox.ac.uk/.
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (2020). Estudios de Opinión Pública. http://www.iep.org.pe/ noticias_categorias/opinion-publica/.
Inter-American Development Bank (2020). Coronavirus Impact Dashboard. http://www.iadb. org/en/topics-effectiveness-improving-lives/coronavirus-impact-dashboard.
Ipsos-Perú (2020). Novedades y encuestas. http://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/news-and-polls/ news.
Oraculus (2020). Indicadores: Aprobación presidencial. http://https://oraculus.mx/ aprobacion-presidencial/.
XP Investimentos (2020). Histórico de Pesquisas XP. http://www.conteudos.xpi.com.br/ politica/pesquisas-xp-2/.
Coppedge, M. et al. (2020). V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v10. [Dataset]. https://doi.org/ 10.23696/vdemds20.
Sosa-Villagarcia, P., & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2021). Covid-19 e popularidade presidencial na América Latina. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71–91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
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