The auxílio emergencial and stringent social distancing policies in Brazil: the impact on mobility and non-work travel outside the home
Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions to increase physical distancing have been instrumental in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Governments have enacted stringent public health policies that impose limits on mobility outside the household. However, for containment policies to be effective, there is a growing understanding that emergency aid programs must be designed to ensure that the most vulnerable receive financial and in-kind aid resources to support their ability to “stay at home.” In this study, we use survey data from an Oxford USP-FGV collaborative research initiative to empirically assess the effectiveness of these two policies in reducing mobility with an eye to those at-risk or living in conditions of poverty in eight Brazilian capitals. We learn that, in general, neither stringent public health policies and receipt nor promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial were effective in limiting mobility outside of the home. We do, however, find limited evidence that receipt or promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial marginally limited non-work trips outside of the home, especially in city/state combinations with stringent public health policies. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.
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Favero, N., & Pedersen, M. J. (2020). How to encourage “Togetherness by Keeping Apart” amid COVID-19? The ineffectiveness of prosocial and empathy appeals. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30636/jbpa.32.167
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Jay, J., Bor, J., Nsoesie, E. O., Lipson, S. K., Jones, D. K., Galea, S., & Raifman, J. (2020). Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Nature human behaviour, 4(12), 1294-1302. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00998-2
Levy, S., & Menezes, N. (2021). Evaluating the Impact of the Covid Emergency Aid Transfers on Female Labor Supply in Brazil. Policy Paper (58), 1-26. https://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy_Paper_58.pdf
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Londoño-Vélez, J., & Querubin, P. (2020). The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia. (Working Paper). Innovations for Poverty Action. https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-emergency-cash-assistance-pandemic-experimental-evidence-colombia
Lustig, N. & Trasberg, M. (2021) How Brazil and Mexico Diverged on Social Protection in the Pandemic. Current History, 1(120)823, 57–63. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2021.120.823.57
Ma, C., Gu, J., Hou, P., Zhang, L., Bai, Y., Gou, Z., Wu, H., Zhang, B., Li, P. & Ma, X. (2020). Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. [Prepint Article] MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037572
Peres, I. T., Bastos, L. S. L., Gelli, J. G. M., Marchesi, J. F., Dantas, L. F, Antunes, B. B. P., Maçaira, P. M.,Baião, F. A., Hamacher, S. & Bozza, F. A. (2021). Sociodemographic factors associated with COVID-19 in hospital mortality in Brazil. Public Health (192), 15-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.01.005
Petherick, A., Kira, B., Goldszmidt, R., & Barberia, L. (2020). Do Brazil’s Covid-19 Government Response Measures Meet the WHO’s Criteria for Policy Easing? (Working Paper BSG-WP-2020/033). Blavatnik School. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/do-brazils-covid-19-government-response-measures-meet-whos-criteria-policy.
Prates, I., Barbosa, R.J., Requena, C., Lazzari, E., Guicheney, H., Fimiani, H., Leal, J., Flores, P., Simoni, S., Meireles, T., & Meneces, V. (2020). Dificuldades com aplicativo e não uso da rede de proteção atual limitam acesso ao auxílio de emergência. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 5. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/boletim5.pdf
Ribeiro, K.B., Ribeiro, A.F., de Sousa, M.A., & Castro, M.C. (2021). Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of Epidemiology, 50(3), 732-742. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab022
Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel, C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., and Roser, M. (2020) "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Weill, J. A., Stigler, M., Deschenes, O., & Springborn, M. R. (2020). Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19658-19660. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009412117
Woskie, L., & Wenham, C. (2021). Do Men and Women “Lockdown” Differently? Examining Panama’s Covid-19 Sex-Segregated Social Distancing Policy. Feminist Economics, 27(1), 327-344. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1867761
Barberia, L., Krieger, J.E., Gutiérrez, M.A, & Piazza, K.S. (2020). The federal emergency basic income program has positive effects on the income of the most vulnerable population, but fails to reduce mobility. The lack of an integrated strategy undermines the effectiveness of the measures against the pandemic. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 15. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/boletimpps_15_10julho_ingles.pdf
Barberia, L., Moreira, N., Cantarelli, L. G. R., Claro, M.L., Costa, I. S., de Santana, P., Zamudio, M., Aparecida, D. & Moraes, T. (2020). COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for the Brazilian Federation (CGRT-BRFED). Repositório de dados do grupo CGRT-BRFED USP https://github.com/cgrtbrfed/covid19brpolicyresponses
Barberia, L. G., Cantarelli, L. G., Oliveira, M. L. C. D. F., Moreira, N. D. P., & Rosa, I. S. C. (2021). The effect of state-level social distancing policy stringency on mobility in the states of Brazil. Revista de Administração Pública, 55, 27-49.
Bargain, O., & Aminjonov, U. (2021). Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America. World Development, 142, Article 105422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422
Bennett, M. (2021). All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in Chile. World Development, 137, Article 105208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105208.
Blofield, M., Giambruno, C. & Filgueira F. (2020). Policy expansion in compressed time. Assessing the speed, breadth and sufficiency of post?COVID?19 social protection measures in 10 Latin American countries. Social Policy, (235), 1-93. https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/21415466-policy-expansion-compressed-time-assessing-speed-breadth-sufficiency-post-covid-19-social-p/
Brewer, M. & Tasseva, I. (2020). Did the UK Policy Response to COVID-19 Protect Household Incomes? SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3628464
Caselli, F.G., Grigoli, F., Sandri, D., & Spilimbergo, A. (2020). Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age. (Working Paper 2020/282). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/12/11/Mobility-under-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-Asymmetric-Effects-across-Gender-and-Age-49918.
Cheng, C., Barceló, J., Hartnett, A.S., Kubinec, R., & Messerschmidt, L. (2020). COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0). Nature Human Behavior 4(7), 756–768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0909-7
de Souza, A.A., da Silva, D., de Souza, W.M., Buss, L., Li, S. L., Pereira, R. H. M., Wu, C., Sabino, E. C., & Faria, N. R. (2021) Dataset on SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions in Brazilian municipalities. Sci Data 8(73), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00859-1
Favero, N., & Pedersen, M. J. (2020). How to encourage “Togetherness by Keeping Apart” amid COVID-19? The ineffectiveness of prosocial and empathy appeals. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30636/jbpa.32.167
Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., Orton, I., & Dale, P. (2020). Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33635
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Doan, M.K., Michuda, A., & Majumder, B. (2020). Economic Burden of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Poor. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642987
Gutierrez-Romero, R. (2020). Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: Social Distancing, Food Vulnerability and Welfare Response. (Working Paper). Centre for Globalisation Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3616421
Hale, T., Webster, S., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., & Kira, B. (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Blavatnik School of Government. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker
Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Huang, L.Y., Hultgren, A., Kraovich, E., Lau, P., Lee, J., Rol, E., Tseng, J., & Wu, T. (2020) The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 584(7820), 262-267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8
Jay, J., Bor, J., Nsoesie, E. O., Lipson, S. K., Jones, D. K., Galea, S., & Raifman, J. (2020). Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Nature human behaviour, 4(12), 1294-1302. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00998-2
Levy, S., & Menezes, N. (2021). Evaluating the Impact of the Covid Emergency Aid Transfers on Female Labor Supply in Brazil. Policy Paper (58), 1-26. https://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy_Paper_58.pdf
Li SL, Pereira RHM, Prete Jr CA, et alHigher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil. BMJ Global Health 2021;6:e004959.
Londoño-Vélez, J., & Querubin, P. (2020). The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia. (Working Paper). Innovations for Poverty Action. https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-emergency-cash-assistance-pandemic-experimental-evidence-colombia
Lustig, N. & Trasberg, M. (2021) How Brazil and Mexico Diverged on Social Protection in the Pandemic. Current History, 1(120)823, 57–63. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2021.120.823.57
Ma, C., Gu, J., Hou, P., Zhang, L., Bai, Y., Gou, Z., Wu, H., Zhang, B., Li, P. & Ma, X. (2020). Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. [Prepint Article] MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037572
Peres, I. T., Bastos, L. S. L., Gelli, J. G. M., Marchesi, J. F., Dantas, L. F, Antunes, B. B. P., Maçaira, P. M.,Baião, F. A., Hamacher, S. & Bozza, F. A. (2021). Sociodemographic factors associated with COVID-19 in hospital mortality in Brazil. Public Health (192), 15-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.01.005
Petherick, A., Kira, B., Goldszmidt, R., & Barberia, L. (2020). Do Brazil’s Covid-19 Government Response Measures Meet the WHO’s Criteria for Policy Easing? (Working Paper BSG-WP-2020/033). Blavatnik School. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/do-brazils-covid-19-government-response-measures-meet-whos-criteria-policy.
Prates, I., Barbosa, R.J., Requena, C., Lazzari, E., Guicheney, H., Fimiani, H., Leal, J., Flores, P., Simoni, S., Meireles, T., & Meneces, V. (2020). Dificuldades com aplicativo e não uso da rede de proteção atual limitam acesso ao auxílio de emergência. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 5. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/boletim5.pdf
Ribeiro, K.B., Ribeiro, A.F., de Sousa, M.A., & Castro, M.C. (2021). Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of Epidemiology, 50(3), 732-742. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab022
Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel, C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., and Roser, M. (2020) "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Weill, J. A., Stigler, M., Deschenes, O., & Springborn, M. R. (2020). Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19658-19660. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009412117
Woskie, L., & Wenham, C. (2021). Do Men and Women “Lockdown” Differently? Examining Panama’s Covid-19 Sex-Segregated Social Distancing Policy. Feminist Economics, 27(1), 327-344. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1867761
Barberia, L. G., & Piazza, K. S. (2021). The auxílio emergencial and stringent social distancing policies in Brazil: the impact on mobility and non-work travel outside the home. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 93–135. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26591
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