El programa de transferencia de emergencia y las políticas de aislamiento en Brasil: el impacto en la movilidad y en los viajes no laborales fuera del hogar
Resumen Las intervenciones no farmacéuticas para aumentar el aislamiento físico han sido fundamentales para mitigar la propagación del COVID-19. Los gobiernos promulgaron estrictas políticas que imponen límites a la movilidad fuera del hogar. Sin embargo, para que estas políticas de contención sean efectivas, existe un creciente entendimiento de que los programas de transferencia de emergencia deben diseñarse para garantizar que los más vulnerables reciban los recursos de ayuda financiera y/o en especie de forma que respalde la capacidad de “quedarse en casa”. En este estudio, utilizamos datos de encuestas de una investigación colaborativa Oxford-USP-FGV para evaluar empíricamente la efectividad de estas políticas en la reducción de la movilidad con miras a las personas en riesgo o que viven en condiciones de pobreza en ocho capitales brasileñas. Los resultados indican que ni el recibo o el potencial de recibir la transferencia de emergencia limito la movilidad fuera del hogar. Sin embargo, encontramos evidencia limitada de que la recepción de la transferencia de emergencia limitó marginalmente los viajes fuera del hogar para viajes no relacionados a trabajo, especialmente en ciudades/estados con políticas de contención mas estrictas. Concluimos discutiendo las implicaciones para las políticas de nuestros hallazgos.
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de Souza, A.A., da Silva, D., de Souza, W.M., Buss, L., Li, S. L., Pereira, R. H. M., Wu, C., Sabino, E. C., & Faria, N. R. (2021) Dataset on SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions in Brazilian municipalities. Sci Data 8(73), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00859-1
Favero, N., & Pedersen, M. J. (2020). How to encourage “Togetherness by Keeping Apart” amid COVID-19? The ineffectiveness of prosocial and empathy appeals. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30636/jbpa.32.167
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Gutierrez-Romero, R. (2020). Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: Social Distancing, Food Vulnerability and Welfare Response. (Working Paper). Centre for Globalisation Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3616421
Hale, T., Webster, S., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., & Kira, B. (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Blavatnik School of Government. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker
Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Huang, L.Y., Hultgren, A., Kraovich, E., Lau, P., Lee, J., Rol, E., Tseng, J., & Wu, T. (2020) The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 584(7820), 262-267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8
Jay, J., Bor, J., Nsoesie, E. O., Lipson, S. K., Jones, D. K., Galea, S., & Raifman, J. (2020). Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Nature human behaviour, 4(12), 1294-1302. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00998-2
Levy, S., & Menezes, N. (2021). Evaluating the Impact of the Covid Emergency Aid Transfers on Female Labor Supply in Brazil. Policy Paper (58), 1-26. https://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy_Paper_58.pdf
Li SL, Pereira RHM, Prete Jr CA, et alHigher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil. BMJ Global Health 2021;6:e004959.
Londoño-Vélez, J., & Querubin, P. (2020). The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia. (Working Paper). Innovations for Poverty Action. https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-emergency-cash-assistance-pandemic-experimental-evidence-colombia
Lustig, N. & Trasberg, M. (2021) How Brazil and Mexico Diverged on Social Protection in the Pandemic. Current History, 1(120)823, 57–63. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2021.120.823.57
Ma, C., Gu, J., Hou, P., Zhang, L., Bai, Y., Gou, Z., Wu, H., Zhang, B., Li, P. & Ma, X. (2020). Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. [Prepint Article] MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037572
Peres, I. T., Bastos, L. S. L., Gelli, J. G. M., Marchesi, J. F., Dantas, L. F, Antunes, B. B. P., Maçaira, P. M.,Baião, F. A., Hamacher, S. & Bozza, F. A. (2021). Sociodemographic factors associated with COVID-19 in hospital mortality in Brazil. Public Health (192), 15-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.01.005
Petherick, A., Kira, B., Goldszmidt, R., & Barberia, L. (2020). Do Brazil’s Covid-19 Government Response Measures Meet the WHO’s Criteria for Policy Easing? (Working Paper BSG-WP-2020/033). Blavatnik School. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/do-brazils-covid-19-government-response-measures-meet-whos-criteria-policy.
Prates, I., Barbosa, R.J., Requena, C., Lazzari, E., Guicheney, H., Fimiani, H., Leal, J., Flores, P., Simoni, S., Meireles, T., & Meneces, V. (2020). Dificuldades com aplicativo e não uso da rede de proteção atual limitam acesso ao auxílio de emergência. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 5. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/boletim5.pdf
Ribeiro, K.B., Ribeiro, A.F., de Sousa, M.A., & Castro, M.C. (2021). Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of Epidemiology, 50(3), 732-742. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab022
Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel, C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., and Roser, M. (2020) "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Weill, J. A., Stigler, M., Deschenes, O., & Springborn, M. R. (2020). Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19658-19660. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009412117
Woskie, L., & Wenham, C. (2021). Do Men and Women “Lockdown” Differently? Examining Panama’s Covid-19 Sex-Segregated Social Distancing Policy. Feminist Economics, 27(1), 327-344. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1867761
Barberia, L., Krieger, J.E., Gutiérrez, M.A, & Piazza, K.S. (2020). The federal emergency basic income program has positive effects on the income of the most vulnerable population, but fails to reduce mobility. The lack of an integrated strategy undermines the effectiveness of the measures against the pandemic. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 15. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/boletimpps_15_10julho_ingles.pdf
Barberia, L., Moreira, N., Cantarelli, L. G. R., Claro, M.L., Costa, I. S., de Santana, P., Zamudio, M., Aparecida, D. & Moraes, T. (2020). COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for the Brazilian Federation (CGRT-BRFED). Repositório de dados do grupo CGRT-BRFED USP https://github.com/cgrtbrfed/covid19brpolicyresponses
Barberia, L. G., Cantarelli, L. G., Oliveira, M. L. C. D. F., Moreira, N. D. P., & Rosa, I. S. C. (2021). The effect of state-level social distancing policy stringency on mobility in the states of Brazil. Revista de Administração Pública, 55, 27-49.
Bargain, O., & Aminjonov, U. (2021). Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America. World Development, 142, Article 105422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422
Bennett, M. (2021). All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in Chile. World Development, 137, Article 105208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105208.
Blofield, M., Giambruno, C. & Filgueira F. (2020). Policy expansion in compressed time. Assessing the speed, breadth and sufficiency of post?COVID?19 social protection measures in 10 Latin American countries. Social Policy, (235), 1-93. https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/21415466-policy-expansion-compressed-time-assessing-speed-breadth-sufficiency-post-covid-19-social-p/
Brewer, M. & Tasseva, I. (2020). Did the UK Policy Response to COVID-19 Protect Household Incomes? SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3628464
Caselli, F.G., Grigoli, F., Sandri, D., & Spilimbergo, A. (2020). Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age. (Working Paper 2020/282). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/12/11/Mobility-under-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-Asymmetric-Effects-across-Gender-and-Age-49918.
Cheng, C., Barceló, J., Hartnett, A.S., Kubinec, R., & Messerschmidt, L. (2020). COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0). Nature Human Behavior 4(7), 756–768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0909-7
de Souza, A.A., da Silva, D., de Souza, W.M., Buss, L., Li, S. L., Pereira, R. H. M., Wu, C., Sabino, E. C., & Faria, N. R. (2021) Dataset on SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions in Brazilian municipalities. Sci Data 8(73), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00859-1
Favero, N., & Pedersen, M. J. (2020). How to encourage “Togetherness by Keeping Apart” amid COVID-19? The ineffectiveness of prosocial and empathy appeals. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30636/jbpa.32.167
Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., Orton, I., & Dale, P. (2020). Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33635
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Doan, M.K., Michuda, A., & Majumder, B. (2020). Economic Burden of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Poor. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642987
Gutierrez-Romero, R. (2020). Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: Social Distancing, Food Vulnerability and Welfare Response. (Working Paper). Centre for Globalisation Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3616421
Hale, T., Webster, S., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., & Kira, B. (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Blavatnik School of Government. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker
Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Huang, L.Y., Hultgren, A., Kraovich, E., Lau, P., Lee, J., Rol, E., Tseng, J., & Wu, T. (2020) The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 584(7820), 262-267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8
Jay, J., Bor, J., Nsoesie, E. O., Lipson, S. K., Jones, D. K., Galea, S., & Raifman, J. (2020). Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Nature human behaviour, 4(12), 1294-1302. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00998-2
Levy, S., & Menezes, N. (2021). Evaluating the Impact of the Covid Emergency Aid Transfers on Female Labor Supply in Brazil. Policy Paper (58), 1-26. https://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy_Paper_58.pdf
Li SL, Pereira RHM, Prete Jr CA, et alHigher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil. BMJ Global Health 2021;6:e004959.
Londoño-Vélez, J., & Querubin, P. (2020). The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia. (Working Paper). Innovations for Poverty Action. https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-emergency-cash-assistance-pandemic-experimental-evidence-colombia
Lustig, N. & Trasberg, M. (2021) How Brazil and Mexico Diverged on Social Protection in the Pandemic. Current History, 1(120)823, 57–63. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2021.120.823.57
Ma, C., Gu, J., Hou, P., Zhang, L., Bai, Y., Gou, Z., Wu, H., Zhang, B., Li, P. & Ma, X. (2020). Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. [Prepint Article] MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037572
Peres, I. T., Bastos, L. S. L., Gelli, J. G. M., Marchesi, J. F., Dantas, L. F, Antunes, B. B. P., Maçaira, P. M.,Baião, F. A., Hamacher, S. & Bozza, F. A. (2021). Sociodemographic factors associated with COVID-19 in hospital mortality in Brazil. Public Health (192), 15-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.01.005
Petherick, A., Kira, B., Goldszmidt, R., & Barberia, L. (2020). Do Brazil’s Covid-19 Government Response Measures Meet the WHO’s Criteria for Policy Easing? (Working Paper BSG-WP-2020/033). Blavatnik School. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/do-brazils-covid-19-government-response-measures-meet-whos-criteria-policy.
Prates, I., Barbosa, R.J., Requena, C., Lazzari, E., Guicheney, H., Fimiani, H., Leal, J., Flores, P., Simoni, S., Meireles, T., & Meneces, V. (2020). Dificuldades com aplicativo e não uso da rede de proteção atual limitam acesso ao auxílio de emergência. Rede de Pesquisa Solidária em Políticas Públicas e Sociedade. Note 5. https://redepesquisasolidaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/boletim5.pdf
Ribeiro, K.B., Ribeiro, A.F., de Sousa, M.A., & Castro, M.C. (2021). Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of Epidemiology, 50(3), 732-742. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab022
Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel, C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., and Roser, M. (2020) "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Weill, J. A., Stigler, M., Deschenes, O., & Springborn, M. R. (2020). Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19658-19660. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009412117
Woskie, L., & Wenham, C. (2021). Do Men and Women “Lockdown” Differently? Examining Panama’s Covid-19 Sex-Segregated Social Distancing Policy. Feminist Economics, 27(1), 327-344. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1867761
Barberia, L. G., & Piazza, K. S. (2021). El programa de transferencia de emergencia y las políticas de aislamiento en Brasil: el impacto en la movilidad y en los viajes no laborales fuera del hogar. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 93–135. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26591
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