Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES
Resumo Presidential approval tends to exhibit the dynamics of honeymoon, decline, and a rebound as elections near. But several presidential administrations and, indeed, some countries themselves, do not conform to this pattern. This introduction to the special issue identifies and classifies outliers to the typical dynamics of approval using a 12-category taxonomy and data on 140 presidential administrations in 18 Latin American countries from the Executive Approval Project 1.0. Contributors to this special issue use this taxonomy to select outlier cases to explain in their respective articles. This combination of cross-national and case-study approaches suggest a more general theory of presidential approval can be constructed by systematically testing new hypotheses generated in this special issue concerning the role of governing style, political communication, security, policy choice, and institutional context.
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Arce, M. E. & J. F. Carrión (2010). “Presidential Support in a Context of Crisis and Recovery in Peru, 1985-2008”. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2(1), 31-51.
Benton, A. L. (2005). “Dissatisfied Democrats or Retrospective Voters? Economic Hardship, Political Institutions, and Voting Behavior in Latin America”. Comparative Political Studies, 38, 417–442.
Boelhouwer Menezes, Daiane (2018). “Aprovação presidencial (1996 -2015) na América Latina: mais participação pode ser uma saída quando a economia vai mal?”. Revista de Ciências Sociais 49(1): 134-165.
Bonilla, J. I., O. Rincón & C. Uribe (2014). “Álvaro Uribe: Más patria que pueblo. Comunicación política presidencial en Colombia, 2002-2010.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 4:95-131.
Brace, P. & B. Hinckley (1992). Follow the leader: Opinion polls and the modern presidents. New York: Basic Books.
Cabezas, J. M. & P. Navia (2010). “Aprobación presidencial en el cuatrienio de Bachelet”. En: Claudio Fuentes (ed.), Chile 2009. Percepciones y actitudes sociales. Santiago: Universidad Diego Portales.
Cabezas, J. M. (2015). “Presidential Support in Latin America 2010- 2012: Economic Vote and Political Preferences.” Política: Revista de Ciencia Política. 53(1): 15-35.
Calvo, E. (2007). “The Responsive Legislature: Public Opinion and Law Making in a Highly Disciplined Legislature”. British Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 263-280.
Campello, D. & C. Zucco Jr (2016). “Presidential Success and the World Economy”. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602.
Carlin, R. E., M. Carreras and G. J. Love (forthcoming). “Presidents’ Sex and Popularity: Baselines, Dynamics, and Policy Performance.”British Journal of Political Science. doi.org/10.1017/ S0007123418000364.
Carlin, R. E., G. J. Love, & C. Martínez-Gallardo (2015a). “Cushioning the Fall: Scandals, Economic Conditions, and Executive Approval”. Political Behavior, 37(1), 109-130.
Carlin, R. E., G. J. Love, & C. Martínez-Gallardo (2015b). “Security, Clarity of Responsibility, and Presidential Approval.” Comparative Political Studies 48(4):438-463.
Carlin, Ryan E., Jonathan Hartlyn, Timothy Hellwig, Gregory J. Love, Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo, & Matthew M. Singer (2016). The Executive Approval Database 1.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Carlin, R. E., J. Hartlyn, T. Hellwig, G. J. Love, C. Martínez-Gallardo, & M. M. Singer (2018). “Public Support for Latin American Presidents: The Cyclical Model in Comparative Perspective”. Research & Politics, 5(3), 2053168018787690.
Carlin, R. E., C. Martínez-Gallardo, & J. Hartlyn (2012). “Executive Approval under Alternative Democratic Regime Types”. In: Douglas Chalmers and Scott Mainwaring (eds.), Problems Confronting Contemporary Democracies: Essays in Honor of Alfred Stepan. South Bend: University of Notre Dame Press, pp. 203-226.
Corrales J. (2018). Fixing Democracy: Constituent Assemblies and Presidential Powers in Latin America. New York: Oxford University Press.
Costa, L. & L. Klobovs (2011). “La indignación colectiva: El impacto del estilo presidencial en la aprobación de la gestión y el voto.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 1:187-199.
Cuzan, A. G. & C. M. Bundrick (1997). “Presidential Popularity in Central America: Parallels with the United States”. Political Research Quarterly, 50(4), 833-849.
Echegaray, F. (2005). Economic Crises and Electoral Responses in Latin America. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.
Gélineau, François (2007). “Presidents, Political Context, and Economic Accountability: Evidence from Latin America.” Political Research Quarterly 60(3): 415-428.
Gerring, J. (2008). “Case selection for case-study analysis: qualitative and quantitative techniques”. In: J. Box-Steffensmeier, H. E. Brady, and D. Collier, The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 645-684.
Gronke, P. & B. Newman (2003). “FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A field Essay on Presidential Approval”. Political Research Quarterly, 56(4), 501-512.
Johnson, G. B. & L. A. Schwindt-Bayer (2009). “Economic Accountability in Central America”. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(3), 33-56.
Kelly, J. M. (2003). “Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru”. The Journal of Politics, 65(3), 864-880.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & María Celeste Ratto (2013). “Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model.” Electoral Studies 32(3): 489-493.
Love, Gregory J. & Leah C. Windsor (2018). “Populism and Popular Support: Vertical Accountability, Exogenous Events, and Leader Discourse in Venezuela.” Political Research Quarterly 71(3): 532–545.
Luna, J. P. (2002). “¿Pesimismo estructural o voto económico? Macropolitics en Uruguay”. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política N°13, pp. 123- 151.
Martinez-Gallardo, C. (2012). “Out of the Cabinet: What Drives Defections from the Government in Presidential Systems?” Comparative Political Studies, 45(1), 62-90.
Mueller, J. E. (1970). “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review 64:18-34
Mueller, J. E. (1971). “Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam 1”. American Political Science Review, 65(2), 358-375.
Mueller, J. E. (1973). War, presidents, and public opinion. John Wiley & Sons.
Murillo, M. V. & G. Visconti (2017). “Economic Performance and Incumbents’ Support in Latin America”. Electoral Studies, 45, 180-190.
Neustadt, R. E. (1960). Presidential power (p. 33). New York: New American Library.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential impeachment and the new political instability in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
Powell, G. B. & G. D. Whitten (1993). “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”. American Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 391-414.
Ratto, María Celeste (2015). “La influencia del contexto en la atribución de responsabilidades al gobierno por la economía en América Latina: una propuesta de análisis multi-nivel.”Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 5.
Shair-Rosenfield, Sarah & Alissandra T. Stoyan (2018). “Gendered Opportunities and Constraints: How Executive Sex and Approval Influence Executive Decree Issuance.” Political Research Quarterly 71(3): 586–599.
Singer, M. M. (2013). “Economic Voting in an Era of Non-crisis: the Changing Electoral Agenda in Latin America, 1982–2010”. Comparative Politics, 45(2), 169-185.
Singer, M. M. (2015). Electoral Accountability for the Economy in Latin America. Política 53(1): 37-72.
Singer, M. M. & R. E. Carlin (2013). “Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting”. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742.
Stimson, J. (2018). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A. (1976). “Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model”. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40(1), 1-21.
Stimson, J. A. (1991). “Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings”. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Visconti, G. (2017). “Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach”. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Benton, A. L. (2005). “Dissatisfied Democrats or Retrospective Voters? Economic Hardship, Political Institutions, and Voting Behavior in Latin America”. Comparative Political Studies, 38, 417–442.
Boelhouwer Menezes, Daiane (2018). “Aprovação presidencial (1996 -2015) na América Latina: mais participação pode ser uma saída quando a economia vai mal?”. Revista de Ciências Sociais 49(1): 134-165.
Bonilla, J. I., O. Rincón & C. Uribe (2014). “Álvaro Uribe: Más patria que pueblo. Comunicación política presidencial en Colombia, 2002-2010.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 4:95-131.
Brace, P. & B. Hinckley (1992). Follow the leader: Opinion polls and the modern presidents. New York: Basic Books.
Cabezas, J. M. & P. Navia (2010). “Aprobación presidencial en el cuatrienio de Bachelet”. En: Claudio Fuentes (ed.), Chile 2009. Percepciones y actitudes sociales. Santiago: Universidad Diego Portales.
Cabezas, J. M. (2015). “Presidential Support in Latin America 2010- 2012: Economic Vote and Political Preferences.” Política: Revista de Ciencia Política. 53(1): 15-35.
Calvo, E. (2007). “The Responsive Legislature: Public Opinion and Law Making in a Highly Disciplined Legislature”. British Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 263-280.
Campello, D. & C. Zucco Jr (2016). “Presidential Success and the World Economy”. The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 589-602.
Carlin, R. E., M. Carreras and G. J. Love (forthcoming). “Presidents’ Sex and Popularity: Baselines, Dynamics, and Policy Performance.”British Journal of Political Science. doi.org/10.1017/ S0007123418000364.
Carlin, R. E., G. J. Love, & C. Martínez-Gallardo (2015a). “Cushioning the Fall: Scandals, Economic Conditions, and Executive Approval”. Political Behavior, 37(1), 109-130.
Carlin, R. E., G. J. Love, & C. Martínez-Gallardo (2015b). “Security, Clarity of Responsibility, and Presidential Approval.” Comparative Political Studies 48(4):438-463.
Carlin, Ryan E., Jonathan Hartlyn, Timothy Hellwig, Gregory J. Love, Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo, & Matthew M. Singer (2016). The Executive Approval Database 1.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Carlin, R. E., J. Hartlyn, T. Hellwig, G. J. Love, C. Martínez-Gallardo, & M. M. Singer (2018). “Public Support for Latin American Presidents: The Cyclical Model in Comparative Perspective”. Research & Politics, 5(3), 2053168018787690.
Carlin, R. E., C. Martínez-Gallardo, & J. Hartlyn (2012). “Executive Approval under Alternative Democratic Regime Types”. In: Douglas Chalmers and Scott Mainwaring (eds.), Problems Confronting Contemporary Democracies: Essays in Honor of Alfred Stepan. South Bend: University of Notre Dame Press, pp. 203-226.
Corrales J. (2018). Fixing Democracy: Constituent Assemblies and Presidential Powers in Latin America. New York: Oxford University Press.
Costa, L. & L. Klobovs (2011). “La indignación colectiva: El impacto del estilo presidencial en la aprobación de la gestión y el voto.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 1:187-199.
Cuzan, A. G. & C. M. Bundrick (1997). “Presidential Popularity in Central America: Parallels with the United States”. Political Research Quarterly, 50(4), 833-849.
Echegaray, F. (2005). Economic Crises and Electoral Responses in Latin America. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.
Gélineau, François (2007). “Presidents, Political Context, and Economic Accountability: Evidence from Latin America.” Political Research Quarterly 60(3): 415-428.
Gerring, J. (2008). “Case selection for case-study analysis: qualitative and quantitative techniques”. In: J. Box-Steffensmeier, H. E. Brady, and D. Collier, The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 645-684.
Gronke, P. & B. Newman (2003). “FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A field Essay on Presidential Approval”. Political Research Quarterly, 56(4), 501-512.
Johnson, G. B. & L. A. Schwindt-Bayer (2009). “Economic Accountability in Central America”. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(3), 33-56.
Kelly, J. M. (2003). “Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru”. The Journal of Politics, 65(3), 864-880.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & María Celeste Ratto (2013). “Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model.” Electoral Studies 32(3): 489-493.
Love, Gregory J. & Leah C. Windsor (2018). “Populism and Popular Support: Vertical Accountability, Exogenous Events, and Leader Discourse in Venezuela.” Political Research Quarterly 71(3): 532–545.
Luna, J. P. (2002). “¿Pesimismo estructural o voto económico? Macropolitics en Uruguay”. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política N°13, pp. 123- 151.
Martinez-Gallardo, C. (2012). “Out of the Cabinet: What Drives Defections from the Government in Presidential Systems?” Comparative Political Studies, 45(1), 62-90.
Mueller, J. E. (1970). “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review 64:18-34
Mueller, J. E. (1971). “Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam 1”. American Political Science Review, 65(2), 358-375.
Mueller, J. E. (1973). War, presidents, and public opinion. John Wiley & Sons.
Murillo, M. V. & G. Visconti (2017). “Economic Performance and Incumbents’ Support in Latin America”. Electoral Studies, 45, 180-190.
Neustadt, R. E. (1960). Presidential power (p. 33). New York: New American Library.
Pérez-Liñán, A. (2007). Presidential impeachment and the new political instability in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
Powell, G. B. & G. D. Whitten (1993). “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”. American Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 391-414.
Ratto, María Celeste (2015). “La influencia del contexto en la atribución de responsabilidades al gobierno por la economía en América Latina: una propuesta de análisis multi-nivel.”Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 5.
Shair-Rosenfield, Sarah & Alissandra T. Stoyan (2018). “Gendered Opportunities and Constraints: How Executive Sex and Approval Influence Executive Decree Issuance.” Political Research Quarterly 71(3): 586–599.
Singer, M. M. (2013). “Economic Voting in an Era of Non-crisis: the Changing Electoral Agenda in Latin America, 1982–2010”. Comparative Politics, 45(2), 169-185.
Singer, M. M. (2015). Electoral Accountability for the Economy in Latin America. Política 53(1): 37-72.
Singer, M. M. & R. E. Carlin (2013). “Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting”. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742.
Stimson, J. (2018). Public opinion in America: Moods, cycles, and swings. Routledge.
Stimson, J. A. (1976). “Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model”. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40(1), 1-21.
Stimson, J. A. (1991). “Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings”. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Visconti, G. (2017). “Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach”. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19.
Carlin, R. E., & Martínez-Gallardo, C. (2019). Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 8(2), 7–27. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22352
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