El ciudadano temeroso: crimen y apoyo a la democracia en América Latina
Resumo This article shows that while the impact of crime victimization on support for democracy is sensitive to question wording, the influence of fear of crime on this attitude is consistent and immune to measurement effects. We construe this as evidence that fear of crime has greater attitudinal consequences for democratic support than crime victimization. We show that fear of crime is affected by actual individual and contextual levels of crime victimization as well as evaluations of regime performance. Finally, and consistent with the affective intelligence literature, we find that crime fails to activate people’s surveillance systems in countries that exhibit very low levels of it (typically, where less than 10% of respondents report to have been victims of crime). It is only in countries that have significant crime victimization where fear of it becomes a factor affecting support for democracy.
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Altemeyer, Bob (1981) Right-Wing Authoritarianism. Winnipeg: University of Manitoba Press.
Balch, George I (1974) “Multiple Indicators in Survey Research: The Concept ‘Sense of Political Efficacy’”. Political Methodology Vol. 1(2): 1-43.
Bateson, Regina (2010) “The Criminal Threat to Democratic Consolidation in Latin America.” Paper delivered at the APSA annual meeting.
Bateson, Regina (2012) “Crime Victimization and Political Participation.” American Political Science Review Vol. 106 (3): 570-587.
Bickel, Robert (2007) Multilevel Analysis for Applied Research, It’s Just Regression! New York-London: The Guilford Press.
Brader, Ted (2011) “The Emotional Foundations of Democratic Citizenship.” In Adam J. Berinksy (ed.), New Directions in Public Opinion. New York and London: Routledge, 2012.
Bratton, Michael and Robert Mattes (2001) “Support for Democracy in Africa: Intrinsic or Instrumental?” British Journal of Political Science Vol. 31 (3): 447-474.
Buzan, Barry, Ole Wæver, and Jaap de Wilde (1997) Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Carlin, Ryan E. and Matthew M. Singer (2011) “Support for Polyarchy in the Americas.” Comparative Political Studies Vol. 44 (11): 1500-1526.
Carreras, Miguel (2013) “The Impact of Criminal Violence on Regime Legitimacy in Latin America.” Latin American Research Review Vol. 48 (3): 85-107.
Carrión, Julio F (2008) “Illiberal Democracy and Normative Democracy: How is Democracy Defined in the Americas?” In Mitchell Seligson (ed.), Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from the AmericasBarometer 2006- 2007, Nashville, Vanderbilt University.
Casas-Zamora, Kevin (2013) The Besieged Polis: Citizen Insecurity and Democracy in Latin America. Washington DC: The Brookings Institute, June 2013.
Cassino Dan and Milton Lodge (2007) “The Primacy of Affect in Political Evaluations.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann N. Crigler, and Michael Mackuen (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ceobanu, Alin M., Charles H. Wood, and Ludmila Ribeiro (2010) “Crime Victimization and Public Support for Democracy: Evidence from Latin America.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 23 (1): 56-78.
Chillier, Gastón and Silvia Varela (2009) “Violence, (In)Security and Human Rights in Latin America.” IDS Bulletin Vol.40 (2): 70-78.
Costa, Gino (2012) Citizen Insecurity in Latin America. Inter-American Dialogue Working Report. Washington D.C.: Inter-American Dialogue.
Cruz, José Miguel (2011) “Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America: The Survival of the Violent State.” Latin American Politics and Society Vol. 53 (4): 1-33.
Dammert, Lucía and Mary Fran Malone (2006) “Does It Take a Village? Policing Strategies and Fear of Crime in Latin America.” Latin American Politics and Society Vol. 48 (4): 27-51.
Dammert, Lucía (2012) Fear and Crime in Latin America: Redefining State-Society Relations. New York: Routledge.
Dammert, Lucía (2013) “Security Challenges for Latin American Democratic Governance.” In Jorge I. Domínguez and Michael Shifter (eds.), Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America. Fourth Edition. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Demertzis, Nicolas (2013) “Introduction: Theorizing the Emotions- Politics Nexus.” In Nicholas Demertizis (ed.), Emotions in Politics: The Affect Dimension in Political Tension. London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
Duch, Raymond and Randolph Stevenson (2008) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Elster, Jon (1999) Alchemies of the Mind: Rationality and the Emotions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Fernandez, Kenneth E. and Michele Kuenzi (2010) “Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America.” Political Studies Vol. 58 (3): 450-471.
Fiorina, Morris (1981) Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Garofalo, James (1979) “Victimization and the Fear of Crime.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Vol. 16: 80-97.
Gibson, James L. (1996) “Political and Economic Markets: Changes in the Connections between Attitudes Toward Political Democracy and a Market Economy Within the Mass Culture of Russia and Ukraine.” Journal of Politics Vol. 58 (4):954-84.
Inglehart, Ronald (1997) Modernization and Postmodernization. Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, Ronald (2003) “How Solid is Mass Support for Democracy— And How Can We Measure It?” PS: Political Science and Politics Vol. 31 (1): 51-57.
Kiewit, Roderick D. (1983) Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kinder, Donald R. and D. Roderick Kiewiet (1981) “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science Vol. 11 (2): 129-161.
Lafree, Gary and Andromachi Tseloni (2006) “Democracy and Crime: A Multilevel Analysis of Homicide Trends in Forty-Four Countries, 1950-2000.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science Vol. 605 (1): 26-49.
Lewis-Beck, Michael (1988) Economic Conditions and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Luengas, Pavel and Ruprah Inder J. (2008) Fear of Crime: Does Trust and Community Participation Matter? Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper Series.
MacKuen, Michael, George Marcus, W. Russell Neuman, and Luke Keele (2007) “The Third Way: The Theory of Affective Intelligence and American Democracy.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann Crigler, and Michael MacKuen, (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2012) The Rule of Law in Central America. Citizens’ Reactions to Crime and Punishment. New York: Continuum Books.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2010) “The Verdict Is In: The Impact of Crime on Public Trust in Central American Justice Systems.” Journal of Politics in Latin America Vol. 2 (3): 99-128.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2010-2011) “Does Dirty Harry Have the Answer? Citizen Support for the Rule of Law in Central America.” Public Integrity Vol. 13 (1): 59-80.
Marcus, George (2000) “Emotions in Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 221-250.
Marcus, George (2003) “The Psychology of Emotions and Politics.” In David Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 182-221.
Marcus, George, W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen (2000) Affective Intelligence and Political Judgement. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Marcus, George, Michael MacKuen, and W. Russell Neuman (2011) “Parsimony and Complexity: Developing and Testing Theories of Affective Intelligence.” Political Psychology Vol. 32 (2): 323-336.
Mattes, Robert and Michael Bratton (2007) “Learning About Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience.” American Journal of Political Science Vol. 51 (1): 192-217.
Mishler, William and Richard Rose (1996) “Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe.” Comparative Political Studies 28 (4): 553–81.
Nardulli, Peter and James Kuklinski (2007) “Testing Some Implications of Affective Intelligence Theory at the Aggregate Level.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann N. Crigler, and Michael Mackuen (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Neuman, W. Russell, George E. Marcus, Ann Crigler, and Michael MacKuen, (eds.), (2007) The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Newton, Kenneth (2001) “Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy.” International Political Science Review Vol. 22 (2): 201-214.
Paccagnella, Omar (2006) “Centering or Not Centering in Multilevel Models? The Role of the Group Mean and the Assessment of Group Effects.” Evaluation Review Vol. 30 (1): 66-85.
Pearce, Jenny (2010) “Perverse State Formation and Securitized Democracy in Latin America.” Democratization Vol. 17 (2): 286-306.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2003-2004) “Democratic Legitimacy and Public Insecurity: Crime and Democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala.” Political Science Quarterly Vol. 118 (4): 627-644.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2011) “Crime, Insecurity and Erosion of Democratic Values in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública. N° 1: 61-86.
Portes, Alejandro and Bryan R. Roberts (2005) “The Free-Market City: Latin American Urbanization in the Years of the Neoliberal Experiment.” Studies in Comparative International Development Vol. 40 (1): 43-82.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, PNUD (2013) Informe Regional de Desarrollo Humano 2013-2014. Seguridad Ciudadana con rostro humano: diagnóstico y propuestas para América Latina. New York: PNUD.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, PNUD (2004) La democracia en América Latina. Segunda edición. Buenos Aires: Aguilar, Altea, Taurus, Alfaguara.
Putnam, Robert (1993) Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Redlawsk, David P. (2006) “Feeling Politics: New Research into Emotion and Politics.” In David Redlawsk (ed.), Feeling Politics: Emotion in Political Information Processing. New York: Palgrave.
Rotker, Susana (ed.) (2002) Citizens of Fear: Urban Violence in Latin America. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Rusting, Cheryl L. (1998) “Personality, Mood, and Cognitive Processing of Emotional Information: Three Conceptual Frameworks.” Psychological Bulleting Vol. 124 (2): 165-196.
Stenner, Karen (2005) The Authoritarian Dynamic. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Skogan, Wesley (1987) “The Impact of Victimization on Fear.” Crime and Delinquency Vol. 33: 135-154.
Balch, George I (1974) “Multiple Indicators in Survey Research: The Concept ‘Sense of Political Efficacy’”. Political Methodology Vol. 1(2): 1-43.
Bateson, Regina (2010) “The Criminal Threat to Democratic Consolidation in Latin America.” Paper delivered at the APSA annual meeting.
Bateson, Regina (2012) “Crime Victimization and Political Participation.” American Political Science Review Vol. 106 (3): 570-587.
Bickel, Robert (2007) Multilevel Analysis for Applied Research, It’s Just Regression! New York-London: The Guilford Press.
Brader, Ted (2011) “The Emotional Foundations of Democratic Citizenship.” In Adam J. Berinksy (ed.), New Directions in Public Opinion. New York and London: Routledge, 2012.
Bratton, Michael and Robert Mattes (2001) “Support for Democracy in Africa: Intrinsic or Instrumental?” British Journal of Political Science Vol. 31 (3): 447-474.
Buzan, Barry, Ole Wæver, and Jaap de Wilde (1997) Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Carlin, Ryan E. and Matthew M. Singer (2011) “Support for Polyarchy in the Americas.” Comparative Political Studies Vol. 44 (11): 1500-1526.
Carreras, Miguel (2013) “The Impact of Criminal Violence on Regime Legitimacy in Latin America.” Latin American Research Review Vol. 48 (3): 85-107.
Carrión, Julio F (2008) “Illiberal Democracy and Normative Democracy: How is Democracy Defined in the Americas?” In Mitchell Seligson (ed.), Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from the AmericasBarometer 2006- 2007, Nashville, Vanderbilt University.
Casas-Zamora, Kevin (2013) The Besieged Polis: Citizen Insecurity and Democracy in Latin America. Washington DC: The Brookings Institute, June 2013.
Cassino Dan and Milton Lodge (2007) “The Primacy of Affect in Political Evaluations.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann N. Crigler, and Michael Mackuen (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ceobanu, Alin M., Charles H. Wood, and Ludmila Ribeiro (2010) “Crime Victimization and Public Support for Democracy: Evidence from Latin America.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 23 (1): 56-78.
Chillier, Gastón and Silvia Varela (2009) “Violence, (In)Security and Human Rights in Latin America.” IDS Bulletin Vol.40 (2): 70-78.
Costa, Gino (2012) Citizen Insecurity in Latin America. Inter-American Dialogue Working Report. Washington D.C.: Inter-American Dialogue.
Cruz, José Miguel (2011) “Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America: The Survival of the Violent State.” Latin American Politics and Society Vol. 53 (4): 1-33.
Dammert, Lucía and Mary Fran Malone (2006) “Does It Take a Village? Policing Strategies and Fear of Crime in Latin America.” Latin American Politics and Society Vol. 48 (4): 27-51.
Dammert, Lucía (2012) Fear and Crime in Latin America: Redefining State-Society Relations. New York: Routledge.
Dammert, Lucía (2013) “Security Challenges for Latin American Democratic Governance.” In Jorge I. Domínguez and Michael Shifter (eds.), Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America. Fourth Edition. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Demertzis, Nicolas (2013) “Introduction: Theorizing the Emotions- Politics Nexus.” In Nicholas Demertizis (ed.), Emotions in Politics: The Affect Dimension in Political Tension. London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
Duch, Raymond and Randolph Stevenson (2008) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Elster, Jon (1999) Alchemies of the Mind: Rationality and the Emotions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Fernandez, Kenneth E. and Michele Kuenzi (2010) “Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America.” Political Studies Vol. 58 (3): 450-471.
Fiorina, Morris (1981) Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Garofalo, James (1979) “Victimization and the Fear of Crime.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Vol. 16: 80-97.
Gibson, James L. (1996) “Political and Economic Markets: Changes in the Connections between Attitudes Toward Political Democracy and a Market Economy Within the Mass Culture of Russia and Ukraine.” Journal of Politics Vol. 58 (4):954-84.
Inglehart, Ronald (1997) Modernization and Postmodernization. Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, Ronald (2003) “How Solid is Mass Support for Democracy— And How Can We Measure It?” PS: Political Science and Politics Vol. 31 (1): 51-57.
Kiewit, Roderick D. (1983) Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kinder, Donald R. and D. Roderick Kiewiet (1981) “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science Vol. 11 (2): 129-161.
Lafree, Gary and Andromachi Tseloni (2006) “Democracy and Crime: A Multilevel Analysis of Homicide Trends in Forty-Four Countries, 1950-2000.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science Vol. 605 (1): 26-49.
Lewis-Beck, Michael (1988) Economic Conditions and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Luengas, Pavel and Ruprah Inder J. (2008) Fear of Crime: Does Trust and Community Participation Matter? Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper Series.
MacKuen, Michael, George Marcus, W. Russell Neuman, and Luke Keele (2007) “The Third Way: The Theory of Affective Intelligence and American Democracy.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann Crigler, and Michael MacKuen, (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2012) The Rule of Law in Central America. Citizens’ Reactions to Crime and Punishment. New York: Continuum Books.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2010) “The Verdict Is In: The Impact of Crime on Public Trust in Central American Justice Systems.” Journal of Politics in Latin America Vol. 2 (3): 99-128.
Malone, Mary Fran T. (2010-2011) “Does Dirty Harry Have the Answer? Citizen Support for the Rule of Law in Central America.” Public Integrity Vol. 13 (1): 59-80.
Marcus, George (2000) “Emotions in Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 221-250.
Marcus, George (2003) “The Psychology of Emotions and Politics.” In David Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 182-221.
Marcus, George, W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen (2000) Affective Intelligence and Political Judgement. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Marcus, George, Michael MacKuen, and W. Russell Neuman (2011) “Parsimony and Complexity: Developing and Testing Theories of Affective Intelligence.” Political Psychology Vol. 32 (2): 323-336.
Mattes, Robert and Michael Bratton (2007) “Learning About Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience.” American Journal of Political Science Vol. 51 (1): 192-217.
Mishler, William and Richard Rose (1996) “Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe.” Comparative Political Studies 28 (4): 553–81.
Nardulli, Peter and James Kuklinski (2007) “Testing Some Implications of Affective Intelligence Theory at the Aggregate Level.” In W. Russell Neuman, George E. Marcus, Ann N. Crigler, and Michael Mackuen (eds.), The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Neuman, W. Russell, George E. Marcus, Ann Crigler, and Michael MacKuen, (eds.), (2007) The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Newton, Kenneth (2001) “Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy.” International Political Science Review Vol. 22 (2): 201-214.
Paccagnella, Omar (2006) “Centering or Not Centering in Multilevel Models? The Role of the Group Mean and the Assessment of Group Effects.” Evaluation Review Vol. 30 (1): 66-85.
Pearce, Jenny (2010) “Perverse State Formation and Securitized Democracy in Latin America.” Democratization Vol. 17 (2): 286-306.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2003-2004) “Democratic Legitimacy and Public Insecurity: Crime and Democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala.” Political Science Quarterly Vol. 118 (4): 627-644.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2011) “Crime, Insecurity and Erosion of Democratic Values in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública. N° 1: 61-86.
Portes, Alejandro and Bryan R. Roberts (2005) “The Free-Market City: Latin American Urbanization in the Years of the Neoliberal Experiment.” Studies in Comparative International Development Vol. 40 (1): 43-82.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, PNUD (2013) Informe Regional de Desarrollo Humano 2013-2014. Seguridad Ciudadana con rostro humano: diagnóstico y propuestas para América Latina. New York: PNUD.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, PNUD (2004) La democracia en América Latina. Segunda edición. Buenos Aires: Aguilar, Altea, Taurus, Alfaguara.
Putnam, Robert (1993) Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Redlawsk, David P. (2006) “Feeling Politics: New Research into Emotion and Politics.” In David Redlawsk (ed.), Feeling Politics: Emotion in Political Information Processing. New York: Palgrave.
Rotker, Susana (ed.) (2002) Citizens of Fear: Urban Violence in Latin America. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Rusting, Cheryl L. (1998) “Personality, Mood, and Cognitive Processing of Emotional Information: Three Conceptual Frameworks.” Psychological Bulleting Vol. 124 (2): 165-196.
Stenner, Karen (2005) The Authoritarian Dynamic. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Skogan, Wesley (1987) “The Impact of Victimization on Fear.” Crime and Delinquency Vol. 33: 135-154.
Carrión, J. F., & Balasco, L. M. (2016). El ciudadano temeroso: crimen y apoyo a la democracia en América Latina. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 6, 13–50. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22317
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