Forecasting Elections in Latin America: an Overview
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Bélanger, É. and Godbout, J.-F. (2010). Forecasting Canadian federal elections. PS: Political Science and Politics, 43(4), 691-699.
Bélanger, É., and Trotter, D. (2017). Econometric approaches to forecasting. In Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, pp. 813-834. Sage.
Beltrán, U. and Valdivia, M. (1999). Accuracy and error in electoral forecasts: the case of Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 11(2), 115-134.
Bunker, K. (2020). A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419.
Bunker, K., and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral forecasting and public opinion tracking in Latin America: an application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Cantú, F., Hoyo, V. and Morales, M. A. (2016). The utility of unpacking survey bias in multiparty elections: Mexican polling firms in the 2006 and 2012 presidential elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28(1), 96-116.
Castro, R. and Vaca, C. (2017). National leaders’ Twitter speech to infer political leaning and election results in 2015 Venezuelan parliamentary elections. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW), New Orleans, LA. doi: 10.1109/ICDMW.2017.118.
Dubois, É. and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2004). Vote functions in France and the 2002 election forecast. In: Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (ed.), The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, pp. 205-230. Palgrave Macmillan.
Erikson, R. S. and Wlezien, C. (2014). Forecasting US presidential elections using economic and noneconomic fundamentals. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2), 313-316.
Kennedy, R., Wojcik, S. and Lazer, D. (2017). Improving election prediction internationally. Science, 355(6324), 515-520.
Leigh, A. and Wolfers, J. (2006). Competing approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets. The Economic Record, 82, 325-340.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election forecasting: principles and practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Bélanger, É. (eds.) (2012). Special Section: Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4).
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Dassonneville, R. (2015). Comparative election forecasting: further insights from synthetic models. Electoral Studies, 39(3), 275-283.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R. and Bélanger, É. (2004). General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model. Electoral Studies, 23(2), 279-290.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Ratto, M. C. (2013). Economic voting in Latin America: a general model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-492.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Rice, T. W. (1992). Forecasting Elections. Congressional Quarterly Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Stegmaier, M. (eds.) (2014). United States Presidential Elections Forecasting. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2).
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Tien, C. (2011). Election forecasting. In M. Clements and D. Hendry (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, pp. 655-671. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Tien, C. (2012). Japanese election forecasting: classic tests of a hard case. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 797-803.
Linzer, D. A. (2013). Dynamic bayesian forecasting of presidential elections in the States. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(201), 124-134.
Linzer, D. A., and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (eds.) (2015) Special Section: Forecasting US Presidential Elections, New Approaches. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3).
Maldonado, M. and Sierra, V. (2015). Can social media predict voter intention in elections? The case of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential election. Paper presented at the Americas Conference on Information Systems (AMCIS), ISBN: 978-0-9966831-0-4.
Mendoza, L. E. and Nieto-Barajas, M. (2016). Quick counts in the Mexican presidential elections: a Bayesian approach. Electoral Studies, 43, 124-132.
Moreno, A., Aguilar, R. and Romero, V. (2014). Pre-election poll estimations in Mexico: in search for the main sources of error. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Pública, 4, 49-93. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22299
Murr, A. (2016). The wisdom of crowds: applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 916-929.
Murr, A., Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2021). Vote expectations versus vote intentions: rival forecasting strategies. British Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 60-67.
Nadeau, R., Bélanger, É., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M. and Gélineau, F. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. University of Michigan Press.
Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Bélanger, É. (2010). Electoral forecasting in France: a multi-equation solution. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1), 11-18.
Oliva, M. (2001) Aplicación de las encuestas en la investigación del comportamiento electoral. Metodología de Encuestas, 3(1), 37-64.
Rodríguez, S., Allende-Cid, H., Palma, W., Alfaro, R., González, C., Elortegui, C. and Santander, P. (2018). Forecasting the Chilean electoral year: using Twitter to predict the presidential elections of 2017. In: Gabriele Meiselwitz (ed.), Social Computing and Social Media: Technologies and Analytics, pp. 298-314. Springer.
Santander, P., Elórtegui, C., González, C., Allende-Cid, H. and Palma, W. (2017). Redes sociales, inteligencia computacional y predicción electoral: el caso de las primarias presidenciales de Chile 2017. Cuadernos.info, 41, 41-56.
Stegmaier, M., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Park, B. (2017). The V-P function: a review. In K. Arzheimer, J. Evans and M. S. Lewis-Beck (eds.), The Handbook of Electoral Behavior, pp. 584-605. SAGE.
Traugott, M. (2014). Public opinion polls and election forecasting. PS: Political Science & Politics, 47(2), 342-344.
Turgeon, M., and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian presidential elections: solving the N problem». International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-812.
Whiteley, P., Sanders, D., Stewart, M. and Clarke, H. (2011). Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: the seats-votes model. Electoral Studies, 30(2), 278-283.
Bélanger, É., and Trotter, D. (2017). Econometric approaches to forecasting. In Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, pp. 813-834. Sage.
Beltrán, U. and Valdivia, M. (1999). Accuracy and error in electoral forecasts: the case of Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 11(2), 115-134.
Bunker, K. (2020). A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419.
Bunker, K., and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral forecasting and public opinion tracking in Latin America: an application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Cantú, F., Hoyo, V. and Morales, M. A. (2016). The utility of unpacking survey bias in multiparty elections: Mexican polling firms in the 2006 and 2012 presidential elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28(1), 96-116.
Castro, R. and Vaca, C. (2017). National leaders’ Twitter speech to infer political leaning and election results in 2015 Venezuelan parliamentary elections. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW), New Orleans, LA. doi: 10.1109/ICDMW.2017.118.
Dubois, É. and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2004). Vote functions in France and the 2002 election forecast. In: Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (ed.), The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, pp. 205-230. Palgrave Macmillan.
Erikson, R. S. and Wlezien, C. (2014). Forecasting US presidential elections using economic and noneconomic fundamentals. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2), 313-316.
Kennedy, R., Wojcik, S. and Lazer, D. (2017). Improving election prediction internationally. Science, 355(6324), 515-520.
Leigh, A. and Wolfers, J. (2006). Competing approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets. The Economic Record, 82, 325-340.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election forecasting: principles and practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Bélanger, É. (eds.) (2012). Special Section: Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4).
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Dassonneville, R. (2015). Comparative election forecasting: further insights from synthetic models. Electoral Studies, 39(3), 275-283.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R. and Bélanger, É. (2004). General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model. Electoral Studies, 23(2), 279-290.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Ratto, M. C. (2013). Economic voting in Latin America: a general model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-492.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Rice, T. W. (1992). Forecasting Elections. Congressional Quarterly Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Stegmaier, M. (eds.) (2014). United States Presidential Elections Forecasting. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2).
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Tien, C. (2011). Election forecasting. In M. Clements and D. Hendry (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, pp. 655-671. Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Tien, C. (2012). Japanese election forecasting: classic tests of a hard case. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 797-803.
Linzer, D. A. (2013). Dynamic bayesian forecasting of presidential elections in the States. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(201), 124-134.
Linzer, D. A., and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (eds.) (2015) Special Section: Forecasting US Presidential Elections, New Approaches. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3).
Maldonado, M. and Sierra, V. (2015). Can social media predict voter intention in elections? The case of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential election. Paper presented at the Americas Conference on Information Systems (AMCIS), ISBN: 978-0-9966831-0-4.
Mendoza, L. E. and Nieto-Barajas, M. (2016). Quick counts in the Mexican presidential elections: a Bayesian approach. Electoral Studies, 43, 124-132.
Moreno, A., Aguilar, R. and Romero, V. (2014). Pre-election poll estimations in Mexico: in search for the main sources of error. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Pública, 4, 49-93. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22299
Murr, A. (2016). The wisdom of crowds: applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 916-929.
Murr, A., Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2021). Vote expectations versus vote intentions: rival forecasting strategies. British Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 60-67.
Nadeau, R., Bélanger, É., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M. and Gélineau, F. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. University of Michigan Press.
Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Bélanger, É. (2010). Electoral forecasting in France: a multi-equation solution. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1), 11-18.
Oliva, M. (2001) Aplicación de las encuestas en la investigación del comportamiento electoral. Metodología de Encuestas, 3(1), 37-64.
Rodríguez, S., Allende-Cid, H., Palma, W., Alfaro, R., González, C., Elortegui, C. and Santander, P. (2018). Forecasting the Chilean electoral year: using Twitter to predict the presidential elections of 2017. In: Gabriele Meiselwitz (ed.), Social Computing and Social Media: Technologies and Analytics, pp. 298-314. Springer.
Santander, P., Elórtegui, C., González, C., Allende-Cid, H. and Palma, W. (2017). Redes sociales, inteligencia computacional y predicción electoral: el caso de las primarias presidenciales de Chile 2017. Cuadernos.info, 41, 41-56.
Stegmaier, M., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Park, B. (2017). The V-P function: a review. In K. Arzheimer, J. Evans and M. S. Lewis-Beck (eds.), The Handbook of Electoral Behavior, pp. 584-605. SAGE.
Traugott, M. (2014). Public opinion polls and election forecasting. PS: Political Science & Politics, 47(2), 342-344.
Turgeon, M., and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian presidential elections: solving the N problem». International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-812.
Whiteley, P., Sanders, D., Stewart, M. and Clarke, H. (2011). Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: the seats-votes model. Electoral Studies, 30(2), 278-283.
Ratto, M. C., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Bélanger, Éric. (2022). Forecasting Elections in Latin America: an Overview. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 5–13. Recuperado de https://revistas.usal.es/cuatro/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/29171
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