Resumo As previsões eleitorais com base em pesquisas de opinião pública ou modelos estatísticos estruturais geralmente aparecem antes das eleições nacionais em democracias estabelecidas em todo o mundo. No entanto, em sistemas demo- cráticos menos estabelecidos, como os da América Latina, a previsão científica de eleições por meio de pesquisas de opinião é irregular e, pelos modelos esta- tísticos, quase inexistente. Aqui, tentamos melhorar esta situação explorando o caso principal da Argentina, onde as eleições democráticas prevaleceram nos últimos trinta e oito anos. Demonstramos os pontos fortes – e fracos – das duas abordagens e, por fim, destacamos a utilidade dos modelos estruturais baseados em fundamentos políticos e econômicos. Ao pesquisar as eleições legislativas e presidenciais da Argentina de 1983 a 2019, nosso modelo de eco- nomia política tem um desempenho mu todo de intençãode voto das pesquisas mais populares.
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Bélanger, É. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 767-768.
Bunker, K. (2020). A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.02.004.
Bunker, K. and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
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Campbell, J. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2008). Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 189-192.
Carlin, R. E., Hartlyn, J., Hellwig, T., Love, G. J., Martínez-Gallardo, C. and Singer, M. M. (2020). The Executive Approval Database 2.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Dassonneville R. and Hooghe M. (2012) Election forecasting under opaque conditions: A model for Francophone Belgium, 1981-2010. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4): 777-788.
Dassonneville, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Mongrain, P. (2017). Forecasting Dutch Elections: An Initial Model from the March 2017 Legislative Contests. Research and Politics, 4(3), 1-7.
Jérôme, B. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2010). European Election Forecasting: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(1), 9-10.
Key, V.O. Jr. (1966). The Responsible Electorate. Vintage.
Larsen, M. V. (2016). Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia. Scandinavian Political Studies, 39(3), 226-241.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2001). Modelers v. Pollsters: The Elections Forecasts Debate. The Harvard International Journal of Press and Politics, 6(2), 21-23.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2): 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Lewis-Beck, C. (2015). Applied Regression: An Introduction. Second Edition, CAL Sage Publications.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Ratto, M. R. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-493.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Rice, T. (1992). Forecasting Elections. CQ Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Skalaban, A. (1989). Can Voters See into the Future? British Journal of Political Science, 19, 146-153.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes, Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 183-219.
Lewis-Beck M. S. and Tien, C. (2011). Election forecasting. In Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting (pp. 655-671). Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck M. S. and Tien, C. (2016). The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts. PS: Political Science and Politics, 49(3), 661-663.
Linzer, D. A. (2013). Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(201), 124-134.
Magalhães P. C., Aguiar-Conraria, L. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Forecasting Spanish elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4): 769-776.
Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Choosing the Dependent Variable: Sarkozy’s Forecasting Lesson. French Politics, 10(4), 364-368.
Nadeau R., Lewis-Beck M. S. and Bélanger, E. (2010). Electoral forecasting in France: A Multi-equation solution. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1): 11-18.
Norpoth H. and Gschwend T. (2010). The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1): 42-53.
Oliva, M. (2001). Aplicación de las Encuestas en la Investigación del Comportamiento electoral. Metodología de Encuestas, 3(1), 37-64.
Nadeau, R., Ratto, M. C., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, E., Gélineau, F. and Turgeon, M. (2015). Economía y elecciones en Argentina: las dimensiones clásica (valence), posicional y patrimonial de la teoría del voto económico. Revista Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Político, 9(2) , 235-266.
Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2014). United States Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2), 284-288.
Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political Control of the Economy. Princeton University Press.
Whiteley P. F. (2005). Forecasting seats from votes in British general elections. The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 7(2): 165-173.
Whiteley P. F., Sanders D., Stewart M. and Clarke H. (2011). Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The seats-votes model. Electoral Studies, 30(2): 278-283.
Bunker, K. (2020). A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.02.004.
Bunker, K. and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Cabrera, M. S. and Taquino, B. (2016, November 16-18). Midiendo la precisión de encuestas electorales. Memoria académica del V Encuentro Latinoamericano de Metodología de las Ciencias Sociales.
Campbell, J. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2008). Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 189-192.
Carlin, R. E., Hartlyn, J., Hellwig, T., Love, G. J., Martínez-Gallardo, C. and Singer, M. M. (2020). The Executive Approval Database 2.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Dassonneville R. and Hooghe M. (2012) Election forecasting under opaque conditions: A model for Francophone Belgium, 1981-2010. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4): 777-788.
Dassonneville, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Mongrain, P. (2017). Forecasting Dutch Elections: An Initial Model from the March 2017 Legislative Contests. Research and Politics, 4(3), 1-7.
Jérôme, B. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2010). European Election Forecasting: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(1), 9-10.
Key, V.O. Jr. (1966). The Responsible Electorate. Vintage.
Larsen, M. V. (2016). Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia. Scandinavian Political Studies, 39(3), 226-241.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2001). Modelers v. Pollsters: The Elections Forecasts Debate. The Harvard International Journal of Press and Politics, 6(2), 21-23.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2): 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Lewis-Beck, C. (2015). Applied Regression: An Introduction. Second Edition, CAL Sage Publications.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Ratto, M. R. (2013). Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model. Electoral Studies, 32(3), 489-493.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Rice, T. (1992). Forecasting Elections. CQ Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Skalaban, A. (1989). Can Voters See into the Future? British Journal of Political Science, 19, 146-153.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes, Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 183-219.
Lewis-Beck M. S. and Tien, C. (2011). Election forecasting. In Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting (pp. 655-671). Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck M. S. and Tien, C. (2016). The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts. PS: Political Science and Politics, 49(3), 661-663.
Linzer, D. A. (2013). Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(201), 124-134.
Magalhães P. C., Aguiar-Conraria, L. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Forecasting Spanish elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4): 769-776.
Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2012). Choosing the Dependent Variable: Sarkozy’s Forecasting Lesson. French Politics, 10(4), 364-368.
Nadeau R., Lewis-Beck M. S. and Bélanger, E. (2010). Electoral forecasting in France: A Multi-equation solution. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1): 11-18.
Norpoth H. and Gschwend T. (2010). The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1): 42-53.
Oliva, M. (2001). Aplicación de las Encuestas en la Investigación del Comportamiento electoral. Metodología de Encuestas, 3(1), 37-64.
Nadeau, R., Ratto, M. C., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, E., Gélineau, F. and Turgeon, M. (2015). Economía y elecciones en Argentina: las dimensiones clásica (valence), posicional y patrimonial de la teoría del voto económico. Revista Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Político, 9(2) , 235-266.
Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2014). United States Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction. PS: Political Science and Politics, 47(2), 284-288.
Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political Control of the Economy. Princeton University Press.
Whiteley P. F. (2005). Forecasting seats from votes in British general elections. The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 7(2): 165-173.
Whiteley P. F., Sanders D., Stewart M. and Clarke H. (2011). Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The seats-votes model. Electoral Studies, 30(2): 278-283.
Ratto, M. C., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2022). Eleições argentinas: previsão de resultados. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 17–37/39. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26396
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