Escolhendo o mal menor: Previsão de eleições presidenciais no Peru
Resumo O cenário político peruano é dominado pela fraqueza das organizações partidárias, pela rotação contínua das personalidades políticas e, por sua vez, pela alta volatilidade e incerteza eleitoral. No entanto, observamos padrões de competição eleitoral que sugerem que os candidatos aprendem a conquistar o centro político e competir pela continuidade de um modelo econômico com crescimento sustentado. Usamos essas informações para registrar a intenção de voto para o candidato considerado o mal menor. Nossos prognósticos predizem uma grande parte da variação no apoio político a este candidato. A previsão fora da amostra também se aproxima bastante dos resultados eleitorais reais. Estes resultados fornecem certo grau de certeza eleitoral em uma área que, até o momento, permanece pouco estudada.
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- Métricas
Anderson, C. J. (2000). Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective. Electoral Studies, 19(2-3), 151-170.
Arce, M. (2003). Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru. Journal of Politics, 65(2), 572-583.
Arce, M. (2005). Market Reform in Society: Post-crisis Politics and Economic Change in Authoritarian Peru. Pennsylvania State University Press.
Arce, M. (2014). Resource Extraction and Protest in Peru. University of Pittsburgh Press.
Arce, M. and Incio, J. (2018). Perú 2017: Un caso extremo de gobierno dividido. Revista de Ciencia Política, 38(2), 361-377.
Arce, M., and Carrión, J. (2010). Presidential Support in a Context of Crisis and Recovery in Peru, 1985-2008. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2(1), 31-51.
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (2021). Estadísticas. https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas.html
Bartels, L. M. and Zaller, J. (2001). Presidential Vote Models: A Recount. PS: Political Science and Politics, 34(1), 9-20.
Bril-Mascarenhas, T. (2012). Peru: The Center Could Not Hold. Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall-Winter, 12-15.
Bunker, K. (2020). A Two-stage Model to Forecast Elections in New Democracies. The International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419.
Bunker, K, and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Cantú, F., Hoyo V. and Morales, M. A. (2015). The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28(1), 96-116.
Collyns, D. (2021, May 5). Son of the Soil Pedro Castillo Promises a Presidency for Peru’s Poor. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/may/05/pedro-castillo-peru-presidential-candidate
Cotler, J. (2011). Capitalismo y democracia en el Perú: La tentación autoritaria. In L. Pásara, (Ed.), Perú: ante los desafíos del siglo XXI (pp. 519-555). Fondo Editorial de la Pontifica Universidad Católica del Perú.
Dargent, E. (2015). Technocracy and Democracy in Latin America: The Experts Running Government. Cambridge University Press.
Dargent, E. and Muñoz, P. (2016). Peru: A Close Win for Continuity. Journal of Democracy, 27(4), 145-158.
Fiorina, M. P. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. Yale University Press.
Freeman, W. and McClintock, C. (2021, June 10). Why Peru’s Next Leader Was Elected by Less Than 1 Percent Margin. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/10/why-perus-next-leader-
was-elected-by-less-than-1-percent-margin/
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2021). Economía. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/economia/.
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R. (2013). An Introduction to Statistical Learning. Vol. 112. Springer.
Jennings, W., Lewis-Beck, M., and Wlezien, C. (2020). Election Forecasting: Too Far Out? International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 949-962.
Kelly, J. M. (2003). Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru. Journal of Politics, 65(3), 864-880.
Kuhn, M., and Johnson, K. (2013). Applied Predictive Modeling. Vol. 26. Springer.
La República. (2021, February 1). George Forsyth y Verónika Mendoza lideran intención de voto, según IEP. https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/01/31/george-forsyth-
y-veronika-mendoza-lideran-intencion-de-voto-segun-iep-pltc/
Leiteritz, R. J. (2010). Sustaining Open Capital Accounts: International Norms and Domestic Institutions; A Comparison between Peru and Colombia. Doctoral dissertation, London School of Economics.
Levitsky, S. (2013). Peru: The Challenges of a Democracy without Parties. In J. I. Domínguez and M. Shifter (Eds), Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America (pp 282-315). Johns Hopkins University Press.
Levitsky, S., and Cameron, M. A. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-34.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic Models of Voting. In R. Dalton and H.-D. Klingemann (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior (pp. 518–537). Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Tien, C. (2012). Election Forecasting in Turbulent Times. PS: Political Science and Politics, 45(4), 625-629.
Lupu, N. (2012). The 2011 General Election in Peru. Electoral Studies, 31, 621-624.
Mendoza, W. (2013). Peruvian Miracle: Good Luck or Good Policies?. Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers, 371. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
O’Boyle, B. (2020, August 19). This Soccer Star Could be Peru’s Next President. Americas Quarterly. https://americasquarterly.org/article/this-soccer-star-could-be-perus-
next-president/
ONPE (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales). (2021). Elecciones. https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/
Ponce Acuña, R. (2011, June 11). Presidente de CONFIEP: Humala tiene bastante sentimiento social [Video]. Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_qaY-F8WYQ
RPP. (2011, June 6). Bolsa de Valores de Lima registró la peor caída de su historia. https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/bolsa-de-valores-de-lima-registro-la-peor-caida-de-su-historia-noticia-372872
Sanders, D. (2005). Popularity Function Forecasts for the 2005 UK General Election. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 174-190.
Serrano, A. and Navarro, Ó. (2017, October 27). ¿Por qué las encuestas no aciertan en América Latina? CELAG. https://www.celag.org/las-encuestas-no-aciertan-america-latina/
Schmidt, G. D. (2003). The 2001 Presidential and Congressional Elections in Peru. Electoral Studies, 22, 325-395.
Schmidt, G. D. (2007). Back to the Future: The 2006 Peruvian General Election. Electoral Studies, 26, 797-837.
Schmidt, G. D. (2012). AIDS or Cancer?: The 2011 Peruvian Elections. Electoral Studies, 31, 624-628.
Schmidt, Gregory D. (2016). A Split Decision: The 2016 Peruvian General Election and Presidential Runoff. Electoral Studies, 44, 445-464.
Stegmaier, M., and Lewis?Beck, M. S. (2009). Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts, 1998?2010. Politics and Policy, 37(4), 769-780.
Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2013). Economic Voting. In R, Valelly, (Ed), Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0057
Stegmaier, M. and Norpoth, H. (2013). Election Forecasting. In R. Valelly (Ed.), Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science. Oxford University Press.
Stegmaier, M., and Williams, L. K. (2016). Forecasting the 2015 British Election through Party Popularity Functions. Electoral Studies, 41, 260-63.
Stokes, S. C., Przeworski, A., Buendía J., and Wolfson, L. (1997). Opinión pública y reformas de mercado: Las limitaciones de la interpretación económica del voto. Desarrollo Económico, 37(145), 31-56.
Tanaka, M. (2011). Peru’s 2011 Elections: A Vote for Moderate Change. Journal of Democracy, 22(4), 75-83.
Turgeon, M., and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections: Solving the N Problem. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-12.
Vergara, A. and Encinas, D. (2016). Continuity by Surprise: Explaining Institutional Stability in Contemporary Peru. Latin American Research Review, 51(1), 159-180.
Walther, D. (2015). Picking the Winner(s): Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems. Electoral Studies, 40, 1-13.
Williams, L. V., and Reade, J. J. (2016). Forecasting Elections. Journal of Forecasting, 35(4), 308-28. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2377
World Bank. (2021). World Bank Open Data. Peru. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=PE
Arce, M. (2003). Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru. Journal of Politics, 65(2), 572-583.
Arce, M. (2005). Market Reform in Society: Post-crisis Politics and Economic Change in Authoritarian Peru. Pennsylvania State University Press.
Arce, M. (2014). Resource Extraction and Protest in Peru. University of Pittsburgh Press.
Arce, M. and Incio, J. (2018). Perú 2017: Un caso extremo de gobierno dividido. Revista de Ciencia Política, 38(2), 361-377.
Arce, M., and Carrión, J. (2010). Presidential Support in a Context of Crisis and Recovery in Peru, 1985-2008. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2(1), 31-51.
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (2021). Estadísticas. https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas.html
Bartels, L. M. and Zaller, J. (2001). Presidential Vote Models: A Recount. PS: Political Science and Politics, 34(1), 9-20.
Bril-Mascarenhas, T. (2012). Peru: The Center Could Not Hold. Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall-Winter, 12-15.
Bunker, K. (2020). A Two-stage Model to Forecast Elections in New Democracies. The International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1407-1419.
Bunker, K, and Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Cantú, F., Hoyo V. and Morales, M. A. (2015). The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28(1), 96-116.
Collyns, D. (2021, May 5). Son of the Soil Pedro Castillo Promises a Presidency for Peru’s Poor. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/may/05/pedro-castillo-peru-presidential-candidate
Cotler, J. (2011). Capitalismo y democracia en el Perú: La tentación autoritaria. In L. Pásara, (Ed.), Perú: ante los desafíos del siglo XXI (pp. 519-555). Fondo Editorial de la Pontifica Universidad Católica del Perú.
Dargent, E. (2015). Technocracy and Democracy in Latin America: The Experts Running Government. Cambridge University Press.
Dargent, E. and Muñoz, P. (2016). Peru: A Close Win for Continuity. Journal of Democracy, 27(4), 145-158.
Fiorina, M. P. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. Yale University Press.
Freeman, W. and McClintock, C. (2021, June 10). Why Peru’s Next Leader Was Elected by Less Than 1 Percent Margin. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/10/why-perus-next-leader-
was-elected-by-less-than-1-percent-margin/
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2021). Economía. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/economia/.
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R. (2013). An Introduction to Statistical Learning. Vol. 112. Springer.
Jennings, W., Lewis-Beck, M., and Wlezien, C. (2020). Election Forecasting: Too Far Out? International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 949-962.
Kelly, J. M. (2003). Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru. Journal of Politics, 65(3), 864-880.
Kuhn, M., and Johnson, K. (2013). Applied Predictive Modeling. Vol. 26. Springer.
La República. (2021, February 1). George Forsyth y Verónika Mendoza lideran intención de voto, según IEP. https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/01/31/george-forsyth-
y-veronika-mendoza-lideran-intencion-de-voto-segun-iep-pltc/
Leiteritz, R. J. (2010). Sustaining Open Capital Accounts: International Norms and Domestic Institutions; A Comparison between Peru and Colombia. Doctoral dissertation, London School of Economics.
Levitsky, S. (2013). Peru: The Challenges of a Democracy without Parties. In J. I. Domínguez and M. Shifter (Eds), Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America (pp 282-315). Johns Hopkins University Press.
Levitsky, S., and Cameron, M. A. (2003). Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 45(3), 1-34.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 145-164.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M. (2007). Economic Models of Voting. In R. Dalton and H.-D. Klingemann (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior (pp. 518–537). Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Tien, C. (2012). Election Forecasting in Turbulent Times. PS: Political Science and Politics, 45(4), 625-629.
Lupu, N. (2012). The 2011 General Election in Peru. Electoral Studies, 31, 621-624.
Mendoza, W. (2013). Peruvian Miracle: Good Luck or Good Policies?. Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers, 371. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
O’Boyle, B. (2020, August 19). This Soccer Star Could be Peru’s Next President. Americas Quarterly. https://americasquarterly.org/article/this-soccer-star-could-be-perus-
next-president/
ONPE (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales). (2021). Elecciones. https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/
Ponce Acuña, R. (2011, June 11). Presidente de CONFIEP: Humala tiene bastante sentimiento social [Video]. Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_qaY-F8WYQ
RPP. (2011, June 6). Bolsa de Valores de Lima registró la peor caída de su historia. https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/bolsa-de-valores-de-lima-registro-la-peor-caida-de-su-historia-noticia-372872
Sanders, D. (2005). Popularity Function Forecasts for the 2005 UK General Election. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7(2), 174-190.
Serrano, A. and Navarro, Ó. (2017, October 27). ¿Por qué las encuestas no aciertan en América Latina? CELAG. https://www.celag.org/las-encuestas-no-aciertan-america-latina/
Schmidt, G. D. (2003). The 2001 Presidential and Congressional Elections in Peru. Electoral Studies, 22, 325-395.
Schmidt, G. D. (2007). Back to the Future: The 2006 Peruvian General Election. Electoral Studies, 26, 797-837.
Schmidt, G. D. (2012). AIDS or Cancer?: The 2011 Peruvian Elections. Electoral Studies, 31, 624-628.
Schmidt, Gregory D. (2016). A Split Decision: The 2016 Peruvian General Election and Presidential Runoff. Electoral Studies, 44, 445-464.
Stegmaier, M., and Lewis?Beck, M. S. (2009). Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts, 1998?2010. Politics and Policy, 37(4), 769-780.
Stegmaier, M. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2013). Economic Voting. In R, Valelly, (Ed), Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0057
Stegmaier, M. and Norpoth, H. (2013). Election Forecasting. In R. Valelly (Ed.), Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science. Oxford University Press.
Stegmaier, M., and Williams, L. K. (2016). Forecasting the 2015 British Election through Party Popularity Functions. Electoral Studies, 41, 260-63.
Stokes, S. C., Przeworski, A., Buendía J., and Wolfson, L. (1997). Opinión pública y reformas de mercado: Las limitaciones de la interpretación económica del voto. Desarrollo Económico, 37(145), 31-56.
Tanaka, M. (2011). Peru’s 2011 Elections: A Vote for Moderate Change. Journal of Democracy, 22(4), 75-83.
Turgeon, M., and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections: Solving the N Problem. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-12.
Vergara, A. and Encinas, D. (2016). Continuity by Surprise: Explaining Institutional Stability in Contemporary Peru. Latin American Research Review, 51(1), 159-180.
Walther, D. (2015). Picking the Winner(s): Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems. Electoral Studies, 40, 1-13.
Williams, L. V., and Reade, J. J. (2016). Forecasting Elections. Journal of Forecasting, 35(4), 308-28. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2377
World Bank. (2021). World Bank Open Data. Peru. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=PE
Arce, M., & Vera, S. (2022). Escolhendo o mal menor: Previsão de eleições presidenciais no Peru. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 55–80. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25805
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