Engajamento político e vitimização do crime: uma análise causal
Resumo Nos últimos anos, pesquisas demonstraram que a vitimização do crime serve como um catalisador para o engajamento político. No entanto, grande parte deste trabalho não tratou de duas questões importantes: 1) a verdadeira causalidade desta relação, e 2) como as identidades das vítimas e as experiências pessoais podem influenciar esta relação. Este trabalho aborda estas questões testando o efeito da vitimização no engajamento não-eleitoral usando a pesquisa do painel Duas Cidades, Seis Ondas administrada no Brasil entre 2002 e 2006. Ele conclui que a relação causal entre vitimização e engajamento só existe para participação em reuniões de partidos políticos. Além disso, ao explorar o papel da identidade individual e do contexto comunitário, apenas os homens, aqueles que vivem em bairros seguros e os brancos-brasileiros experimentam um aumento em seu engajamento. Enquanto isso, as mulheres, aqueles que vivem em bairros inseguros e os afro-brasileiros não experimentam tal aumento. Aqueles que não sofreram discriminação também aumentam sua participação, enquanto aqueles que sofreram discriminação não o fazem.
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Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: how criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(9), 1963-1990.
Li, Y., & Marsh, D. (2008). New forms of political participation: Searching for expert citizens and everyday makers. British Journal of Political Science, 247-272.
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Oskooii, K. A. (2016). How discrimination impacts sociopolitical behavior: A multidimensional perspective. Political Psychology, 37(5), 613-640.
Oskooii, K. A. (2020). Perceived discrimination and political behavior. British Journal of Political Science, 50(3), 867-892.
Power, T. J. (2009). Compulsory for whom? Mandatory voting and electoral participation in Brazil, 1986-2006. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(1), 97-122.
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Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123.
Van Deth, J. W. (2014). A conceptual map of political participation. Acta Politica, 49(3), 349-367.
Visconti, G. (2020). Policy preferences after crime victimization: panel and survey evidence from Latin America. British Journal of Political Science, 50(4), 1481-1495.
Vráblíková, K. (2014). How context matters? Mobilization, political opportunity structures, and nonelectoral political participation in old and new democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 47(2), 203-229.
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Williams, M. S. (2000). Voice, trust, and memory: Marginalized groups and the failings of liberal representation. Princeton University Press.
Wunsch, G., Russo, F., & Mouchart, M. (2010). Do we necessarily need longitudinal data to infer causal relations? Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique, 106(1), 5-18.
Baker, A., Ames, B., Sokhey, A. E., Renno, L. R. (2015). Replication data for: The dynamics of partisan identification when party brands change: The case of the works party in Brazil. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XSCFX5
Bardall, G., Bjarnegård, E., & Piscopo, J. M. (2020). How is political violence gendered? Disentangling motives, forms, and impacts. Political Studies, 68(4), 916-935.
Barreto, M. A., & Woods, N. D. (2005). The anti-Latino political context and its impact on GOP detachment and increasing Latino voter turnout in Los Angeles County. In G.M. Segura S. Bowler (Eds.). Diversity in democracy: Minority representation in the United States. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press.
Bateson, R. (2012). Crime victimization and political participation. American Political Science Review, 106(3), 570-587. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000299
Bennett, S. E., Flickinger, R. S., & Rhine, S. L. (2000). Political talk over here, over there, over time. British Journal of Political Science, 30(1), 99-119.
Blattman, C. (2009). From violence to voting: War and political participation in Uganda. American Political Science Review, 103(2), 231-247.
Brady, H. E., Verba, S., & Schlozman, K. L. (1995). Beyond SES: A resource model of political participation. American Political Science Review, 89(2), 271-294.
Bravo, C., and Maldonado G. (2012). Las balas y los votos: ¿qué efecto tiene la violencia sobre las elecciones? In J. A. Aguilar (Ed.). Las bases sociales de crimen organizado y la violencia en México. México: Centro de Investigación y Estudios em Seguridad.
Brooks, S. M. (2014). Insecure democracy: Risk and political participation in Brazil. The Journal of Politics, 76(4), 972-985.
Bueno, N. S., & Dunning, T. (2017). Race, Resources, and Representation Evidence from Brazilian politicians. World Politics, 69(2), 327-365.
Bueno, N. S., & Fialho, F. M. (2009). Race, resources, and political participation in a Brazilian city. Latin American Research Review, 44(2), 59-83.
Cerqueira, D., Lima, R. S. D., Bueno, S., Valencia, L. I., Hanashiro, O., Machado, P. H. G., & Lima, A. D. S. (2017). Atlas da Violência 2017. URL: https://www.ipea.gov.br/atlasviolencia/download/24/atlas-da-violencia-2020
Cicatiello, L., Ercolano, S., & Gaeta, G. L. (2015). Income distribution and political participation: a multilevel analysis. Empirica, 42(2), 447-479.
Data UNODC by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. URL: https://dataunodc.un.org
Desposato, S., & Norrander, B. (2009). The gender gap in Latin America: Contextual and individual influences on gender and political participation. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 141-162.
Flesken, A., & Hartl, J. (2020). Ethnicity, inequality, and perceived electoral fairness. Social Science Research, 85, 102363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.102363
Gay, R. (1990). Neighborhood associations and political change in Rio de Janeiro. Latin American Research Review, 25(1), 102-118.
Granberg, D., & Holmberg, S. (1991). Self-reported turnout and voter validation. American Journal of Political Science, 35(2), 448-459.
Hadzic, D., Carlson, D., & Tavits, M. (2020). How exposure to violence affects ethnic voting. British Journal of Political Science, 50(1), 345-362.
Hadzic, D., & Tavits, M. (2019). The gendered effects of violence on political engagement. The Journal of Politics, 81(2), 676-680.
Honaker, J., King, G., & Blackwell, M. (2011). Amelia II: A program for missing data. Journal of Statistical Software, 45(7), 1-47.
Janusz, A., & Campos, L. A. (2018). Candidate Advertisements and Afro-Brazilian Political Marginalization. Latin American Research Review, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3690578
Karp, J. A., & Brockington, D. (2005). Social desirability and response validity: A comparative analysis of overreporting voter turnout in five countries. The Journal of Politics, 67(3), 825-840.
King, G. & Nielson, R. (2019). Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching. Political Analysis, 27(4), 435-454.
Laterzo, I. 2020. Don’t Call the Police? Measuring and Explaining the Dark Figure of Crime, Working Paper.
Leighley, J. E., & Vedlitz, A. (1999). Race, ethnicity, and political participation: Competing models and contrasting explanations. The Journal of Politics, 61(4), 1092-1114.
Ley, S. (2013). An Overview of the Political Consequences of Crime and Insecurity in Latin America. Latin America Policy Journal, 2, 21-26.
Ley, S. (2017). Electoral accountability in the midst of criminal violence: Evidence from Mexico. Latin American Politics and Society, 59(1), 3-27.
Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: how criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(9), 1963-1990.
Li, Y., & Marsh, D. (2008). New forms of political participation: Searching for expert citizens and everyday makers. British Journal of Political Science, 247-272.
Miguel, L. F. (2008). Political representation and gender in Brazil: Quotas for women and their impact. Bulletin of Latin American Research, 27(2), 197-214.
OECD Better Life Index. (2020). OECD. URL: http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/brazil/
Oosterhoff, B., Kaplow, J. B., Layne, C. M., & Pynoos, R. S. (2018). Civilization and its discontented: Links between youth victimization, beliefs about government, and political participation across seven American presidencies. American Psychologist, 73(3), 230-242.
Oskooii, K. A. (2016). How discrimination impacts sociopolitical behavior: A multidimensional perspective. Political Psychology, 37(5), 613-640.
Oskooii, K. A. (2020). Perceived discrimination and political behavior. British Journal of Political Science, 50(3), 867-892.
Power, T. J. (2009). Compulsory for whom? Mandatory voting and electoral participation in Brazil, 1986-2006. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(1), 97-122.
Rosenbaum, P. R. (1984). The consequences of adjustment for a concomitant variable that has been affected by the treatment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), 147(5), 656-666.
Rosenbaum, P. R. (2015). How to see more in observational studies: Some new quasi-experimental devices. The Annual Review of Statistics and Its Applications, 2, 21-48.
Schildkraut, D. J. (2005). The rise and fall of political engagement among Latinos: The role of identity and perceptions of discrimination. Political Behavior, 27(3), 285-312.
Stuart, E. A., King, G., Imai, K., & Ho, D. (2011). MatchIt: nonparametric preprocessing for parametric causal inference. Journal of Statistical Software, 42(8).
Telles, E. (2007). “Racial Discrimination and Miscegenation: The Experience in Brazil.” UN Chronicle. The United Nations. URL: https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/racial-discrimination-and-miscegenation-experience-brazil
Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123.
Van Deth, J. W. (2014). A conceptual map of political participation. Acta Politica, 49(3), 349-367.
Visconti, G. (2020). Policy preferences after crime victimization: panel and survey evidence from Latin America. British Journal of Political Science, 50(4), 1481-1495.
Vráblíková, K. (2014). How context matters? Mobilization, political opportunity structures, and nonelectoral political participation in old and new democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 47(2), 203-229.
Watson, K. (2020). Coronavirus: Brazil’s favela residents organise to stop the spread. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52137165
Williams, M. S. (2000). Voice, trust, and memory: Marginalized groups and the failings of liberal representation. Princeton University Press.
Wunsch, G., Russo, F., & Mouchart, M. (2010). Do we necessarily need longitudinal data to infer causal relations? Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique, 106(1), 5-18.
Laterzo, I. (2021). Engajamento político e vitimização do crime: uma análise causal. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(1), 7–37/39. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23838
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