The Resilience of Democratic Values Under Difficult Conditions. The Case of Guatemala 2012-2021
Abstract This article describes the evolution of democratic attitudes in Guatemala between 2012 and 2021 and identifies, at the political system level, the contextual factors that have contributed to changes in attitudes over time. For this purpose, we trace the linkages between recent political, economic, and social development indicators/trends and public opinion data. Based on cluster analysis of nationally representative survey data, we group of citizens with distinct patterns of democratic attitudes. Those “institutionalists”, who express consistent support for democratic institutions, comprise the largest share of respondents in all the examined years, although that share decreases in the more recent surveys. The research sustains that democratic values among Guatemalans are resistant despite the establishment’s attempts to hinder anti-corruption processes. Civic mobilization demanding accountability, justice, and respect of electoral results confirm this democratic resilience, despite the institutional setbacks.
- Referencias
- Cómo citar
- Del mismo autor
- Métricas
Althoff, A. (2019). Right-Wing Populism and Evangelicalism in Guatemala: the Presidency of Jimmy Morales. International Journal of Latin American Religions, 3(2), 294-324.
Azpuru, D. 2023. Can Latin American Political Culture Help Save Democracy? LASA Forum, 54(2). Spring 2023. Pittsburgh: Latin American Studies Association. https://forum.lasaweb.org/
Azpuru, D. and Zechmeister, E. (2014). Political Culture of Democracy in Guatemala and the Americas, 2014: Democratic Governance Across 10 Years of the AmericasBarometer. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Amnesty International. 2002. Guatemala’s Lethal Legacy. Past Impunity and Renewed Human Rights Violations. London: International Secretariat.
Batz, G. 2022. “State Violence and Democratic Deficiencies 25 Years After Guatemala’s Peace Accords.” In: Chamorro, L., and K. Thaler (eds). Democracy and Autocracy, 20(2), 30-35.
BBC Mundo 2018. “El expresidente de Guatemala Álvaro Colom será enjuiciado por cargos de corrupción en el plan de modernización del transporte público”. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-43254025.
Beltrán, A. 2016. “A New Era of Accountability in Guatemala?”. Current History, 115(778), 63-67.
Bennet, I. (2016). “Guatemala woke up”: A study about the social protests in Guatemala City 2015. (Thesis). Stockholm University.
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27, 5.
Burrell, J., El Kotni, M., & Calmo, R. F. (2020). The Anti/Corruption Continuum: Generation, Politics and Grassroots Anti‐Corruption Mobilization in Guatemala. The Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Anthropology, 25(4), 610-630.
Campello, R. J., Moulavi, D., and Sander, J. 2013. “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates”. In Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (p. 160-172). Springer, Berlin: Springer.
Castorena, O., and S. L. Graves. 2019. “Support for Electoral Democracy.” In Zechmeister, E. J., and N. Lupu (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Castonera, O., and A. Rosario. 2021. “Apoyo a la democracia y sus alternativas). In: Rodríguez, M. (Ed). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021: tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Donis, J. 2016. “Perfil técnico de la encuesta y sinopsis general de los hallazgos”. In: National Democratic Institute (eds.) Cifras y voces. Perspectiva de cambio en la sociedad guatemalteca. Guatemala: National Democratic Institute.
Dotson, R. 2014. “Citizen-Auditors and Visible Subjects: Mi Familia Progresa and Transparency Politics in Guatemala”. PoLAR. Political and Legal Anthropology Review, 37(2), 350-370.
Fernández Luiña, E., R. M. Argueta Velásquez, M. A. Maldonado, K. M. Panamá, A. M. Méndez Marín, and S. S. Montenegro Mejía. 2016. “Consolidación democrática y circulación de élites en el sistema político guatemalteco.” Península, 11(1), 65-84.
Gálvez, V. 2000. “Guatemala: una democracia sinuosa.” Nueva Sociedad, 167, 26-36.
González-Ocantos, E., de Jonge, C. K., Meléndez, C., Nickerson, D., and Osorio, J. 2020. “Carrots and sticks: Experimental evidence of vote-buying and voter intimidation in Guatemala.” Journal of Peace Research, 57(1), 46-61.
Gutiérrez, M. L. (2015). Justicia postransicional en Guatemala: el rol de los jueces en la protección de derechos humanos. Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 35(2), 347-370.
Human Rights Watch. 2022. Guatemala: Events of 2021.
Kitroeff, N. 2021. “Biden Faces a Trade-off: Stop Corruption or Migration?”. The New York Times, August 24.
LAPOP Lab. 2023. The AmericasBarometer. Survey data.
Lupu, N., and E. J. Zechmeister. 2021. “The Pulse of Democracy in 2021.” In Lupu, N., M. Rodríguez, and E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Mazariegos, A. 2018. “Los grupos surgidos en las protestas de 2015 luchan por sobrevivir ante la apatía ciudadana.” Plaza Pública. July 22, 2018.
Meléndez, C. (2022). The Post-Partisans: Anti-Partisans, Anti-Establishment Identifiers, and Apartisans in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Meléndez-Sánchez, M., & L. Gamboa (2023). “How Guatemalans Are Defending Their Democracy”. Journal of Democracy. October. Online exclusive https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-guatemalans-are-defending-their-democracy/
Meléndez-Sánchez, M. & L. Perelló (2023). “The June Guatemalan Election Wa san Outlier in Latin America”. El Faro. July 11th, 2023.
Pereyra, S., Gold, T., & Gattoni, M. S. (2023). “Anti-Corruption Social Mobilization in Latin America”. The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Social Movements, 471.
Rodríguez, Mariana (ed.). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021. Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Sánchez, O. 2008. “Guatemala’s party universe: a case study in underinstitutionalization.” Latin American Politics and Society, 50(1), 123-151.
Sánchez, O. 2023. “Unpacking State Capacity in Guatemala”. In: Sánchez, Omar. State-Society Relations in Guatemala. Theory and practice Lanham: Lexington Books.
Schwartz, R. A., & Isaacs, A. (2023). How Guatemala Defied the Odds. Journal of Democracy, 34(4), 21-35.
Sieder, R. (2007). The judiciary and indigenous rights in Guatemala. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(2), 211-241.
Stuenkel, O. (2023). Guatemala’s Farcical Elections Mirror Broad Democratic Backsliding in Central America. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Azpuru, D. 2023. Can Latin American Political Culture Help Save Democracy? LASA Forum, 54(2). Spring 2023. Pittsburgh: Latin American Studies Association. https://forum.lasaweb.org/
Azpuru, D. and Zechmeister, E. (2014). Political Culture of Democracy in Guatemala and the Americas, 2014: Democratic Governance Across 10 Years of the AmericasBarometer. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Amnesty International. 2002. Guatemala’s Lethal Legacy. Past Impunity and Renewed Human Rights Violations. London: International Secretariat.
Batz, G. 2022. “State Violence and Democratic Deficiencies 25 Years After Guatemala’s Peace Accords.” In: Chamorro, L., and K. Thaler (eds). Democracy and Autocracy, 20(2), 30-35.
BBC Mundo 2018. “El expresidente de Guatemala Álvaro Colom será enjuiciado por cargos de corrupción en el plan de modernización del transporte público”. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-43254025.
Beltrán, A. 2016. “A New Era of Accountability in Guatemala?”. Current History, 115(778), 63-67.
Bennet, I. (2016). “Guatemala woke up”: A study about the social protests in Guatemala City 2015. (Thesis). Stockholm University.
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27, 5.
Burrell, J., El Kotni, M., & Calmo, R. F. (2020). The Anti/Corruption Continuum: Generation, Politics and Grassroots Anti‐Corruption Mobilization in Guatemala. The Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Anthropology, 25(4), 610-630.
Campello, R. J., Moulavi, D., and Sander, J. 2013. “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates”. In Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (p. 160-172). Springer, Berlin: Springer.
Castorena, O., and S. L. Graves. 2019. “Support for Electoral Democracy.” In Zechmeister, E. J., and N. Lupu (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Castonera, O., and A. Rosario. 2021. “Apoyo a la democracia y sus alternativas). In: Rodríguez, M. (Ed). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021: tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Donis, J. 2016. “Perfil técnico de la encuesta y sinopsis general de los hallazgos”. In: National Democratic Institute (eds.) Cifras y voces. Perspectiva de cambio en la sociedad guatemalteca. Guatemala: National Democratic Institute.
Dotson, R. 2014. “Citizen-Auditors and Visible Subjects: Mi Familia Progresa and Transparency Politics in Guatemala”. PoLAR. Political and Legal Anthropology Review, 37(2), 350-370.
Fernández Luiña, E., R. M. Argueta Velásquez, M. A. Maldonado, K. M. Panamá, A. M. Méndez Marín, and S. S. Montenegro Mejía. 2016. “Consolidación democrática y circulación de élites en el sistema político guatemalteco.” Península, 11(1), 65-84.
Gálvez, V. 2000. “Guatemala: una democracia sinuosa.” Nueva Sociedad, 167, 26-36.
González-Ocantos, E., de Jonge, C. K., Meléndez, C., Nickerson, D., and Osorio, J. 2020. “Carrots and sticks: Experimental evidence of vote-buying and voter intimidation in Guatemala.” Journal of Peace Research, 57(1), 46-61.
Gutiérrez, M. L. (2015). Justicia postransicional en Guatemala: el rol de los jueces en la protección de derechos humanos. Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 35(2), 347-370.
Human Rights Watch. 2022. Guatemala: Events of 2021.
Kitroeff, N. 2021. “Biden Faces a Trade-off: Stop Corruption or Migration?”. The New York Times, August 24.
LAPOP Lab. 2023. The AmericasBarometer. Survey data.
Lupu, N., and E. J. Zechmeister. 2021. “The Pulse of Democracy in 2021.” In Lupu, N., M. Rodríguez, and E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Mazariegos, A. 2018. “Los grupos surgidos en las protestas de 2015 luchan por sobrevivir ante la apatía ciudadana.” Plaza Pública. July 22, 2018.
Meléndez, C. (2022). The Post-Partisans: Anti-Partisans, Anti-Establishment Identifiers, and Apartisans in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Meléndez-Sánchez, M., & L. Gamboa (2023). “How Guatemalans Are Defending Their Democracy”. Journal of Democracy. October. Online exclusive https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-guatemalans-are-defending-their-democracy/
Meléndez-Sánchez, M. & L. Perelló (2023). “The June Guatemalan Election Wa san Outlier in Latin America”. El Faro. July 11th, 2023.
Pereyra, S., Gold, T., & Gattoni, M. S. (2023). “Anti-Corruption Social Mobilization in Latin America”. The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Social Movements, 471.
Rodríguez, Mariana (ed.). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021. Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Sánchez, O. 2008. “Guatemala’s party universe: a case study in underinstitutionalization.” Latin American Politics and Society, 50(1), 123-151.
Sánchez, O. 2023. “Unpacking State Capacity in Guatemala”. In: Sánchez, Omar. State-Society Relations in Guatemala. Theory and practice Lanham: Lexington Books.
Schwartz, R. A., & Isaacs, A. (2023). How Guatemala Defied the Odds. Journal of Democracy, 34(4), 21-35.
Sieder, R. (2007). The judiciary and indigenous rights in Guatemala. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(2), 211-241.
Stuenkel, O. (2023). Guatemala’s Farcical Elections Mirror Broad Democratic Backsliding in Central America. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Meléndez, C. (2023). The Resilience of Democratic Values Under Difficult Conditions. The Case of Guatemala 2012-2021. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 119–144. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31387
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Manuel Mora Y Araujo, Eduardo Fidanza, Marta Lagos, Carlos Meléndez, Fabián Echegaray, Ignacio Zuasnabar, Un Debate Alrededor De Las Fortalezas Y Las Debilidades De Las Encuestas Electorales En América Latina , Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública: Vol. 7 (2017)
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
+
−