A resiliência de valores democráticos sob condições difíceis. O caso da Guatemala 2012-2021
Resumo Este artigo descreve a evolução das atitudes democráticas na Guatemala entre 2012 e 2021 e identifica, no sistema político, os fatores contextuais que contribuíram para as mudanças atitudinais ao longo do tempo. Para tanto, são analisados os vínculos entre desenvolvimento político, económico e social e dados de opinião pública. Com base na análise de cluster de dados de pesquisas de opinião pública representativas a nível nacional, agrupamos os cidadãos de acordo com diferentes padrões de atitudes democráticas. Os “institucionalistas”, que expressam um apoio consistente às instituições democráticas, constituem a maior proporção de entrevistados em todos os anos, embora tenha ocorrido uma queda nas pesquisas de opinião pública mais recentes. Os valores democráticos entre os guatemaltecos são vistos como resistentes, apesar das tentativas do establishment de obstaculizar os processos anti-corrupção. As mobilizações cívicas que exigem prestação de contas, justiça e respeito aos resultados eleitorais evidenciam esta reserva democrática, apesar dos retrocessos em matéria institucional.
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Pereyra, S., Gold, T., & Gattoni, M. S. (2023). “Anti-Corruption Social Mobilization in Latin America”. The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Social Movements, 471.
Rodríguez, Mariana (ed.). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021. Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Sánchez, O. 2008. “Guatemala’s party universe: a case study in underinstitutionalization.” Latin American Politics and Society, 50(1), 123-151.
Sánchez, O. 2023. “Unpacking State Capacity in Guatemala”. In: Sánchez, Omar. State-Society Relations in Guatemala. Theory and practice Lanham: Lexington Books.
Schwartz, R. A., & Isaacs, A. (2023). How Guatemala Defied the Odds. Journal of Democracy, 34(4), 21-35.
Sieder, R. (2007). The judiciary and indigenous rights in Guatemala. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(2), 211-241.
Stuenkel, O. (2023). Guatemala’s Farcical Elections Mirror Broad Democratic Backsliding in Central America. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Azpuru, D. 2023. Can Latin American Political Culture Help Save Democracy? LASA Forum, 54(2). Spring 2023. Pittsburgh: Latin American Studies Association. https://forum.lasaweb.org/
Azpuru, D. and Zechmeister, E. (2014). Political Culture of Democracy in Guatemala and the Americas, 2014: Democratic Governance Across 10 Years of the AmericasBarometer. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Amnesty International. 2002. Guatemala’s Lethal Legacy. Past Impunity and Renewed Human Rights Violations. London: International Secretariat.
Batz, G. 2022. “State Violence and Democratic Deficiencies 25 Years After Guatemala’s Peace Accords.” In: Chamorro, L., and K. Thaler (eds). Democracy and Autocracy, 20(2), 30-35.
BBC Mundo 2018. “El expresidente de Guatemala Álvaro Colom será enjuiciado por cargos de corrupción en el plan de modernización del transporte público”. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-43254025.
Beltrán, A. 2016. “A New Era of Accountability in Guatemala?”. Current History, 115(778), 63-67.
Bennet, I. (2016). “Guatemala woke up”: A study about the social protests in Guatemala City 2015. (Thesis). Stockholm University.
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27, 5.
Burrell, J., El Kotni, M., & Calmo, R. F. (2020). The Anti/Corruption Continuum: Generation, Politics and Grassroots Anti‐Corruption Mobilization in Guatemala. The Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Anthropology, 25(4), 610-630.
Campello, R. J., Moulavi, D., and Sander, J. 2013. “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates”. In Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (p. 160-172). Springer, Berlin: Springer.
Castorena, O., and S. L. Graves. 2019. “Support for Electoral Democracy.” In Zechmeister, E. J., and N. Lupu (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Castonera, O., and A. Rosario. 2021. “Apoyo a la democracia y sus alternativas). In: Rodríguez, M. (Ed). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021: tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Donis, J. 2016. “Perfil técnico de la encuesta y sinopsis general de los hallazgos”. In: National Democratic Institute (eds.) Cifras y voces. Perspectiva de cambio en la sociedad guatemalteca. Guatemala: National Democratic Institute.
Dotson, R. 2014. “Citizen-Auditors and Visible Subjects: Mi Familia Progresa and Transparency Politics in Guatemala”. PoLAR. Political and Legal Anthropology Review, 37(2), 350-370.
Fernández Luiña, E., R. M. Argueta Velásquez, M. A. Maldonado, K. M. Panamá, A. M. Méndez Marín, and S. S. Montenegro Mejía. 2016. “Consolidación democrática y circulación de élites en el sistema político guatemalteco.” Península, 11(1), 65-84.
Gálvez, V. 2000. “Guatemala: una democracia sinuosa.” Nueva Sociedad, 167, 26-36.
González-Ocantos, E., de Jonge, C. K., Meléndez, C., Nickerson, D., and Osorio, J. 2020. “Carrots and sticks: Experimental evidence of vote-buying and voter intimidation in Guatemala.” Journal of Peace Research, 57(1), 46-61.
Gutiérrez, M. L. (2015). Justicia postransicional en Guatemala: el rol de los jueces en la protección de derechos humanos. Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 35(2), 347-370.
Human Rights Watch. 2022. Guatemala: Events of 2021.
Kitroeff, N. 2021. “Biden Faces a Trade-off: Stop Corruption or Migration?”. The New York Times, August 24.
LAPOP Lab. 2023. The AmericasBarometer. Survey data.
Lupu, N., and E. J. Zechmeister. 2021. “The Pulse of Democracy in 2021.” In Lupu, N., M. Rodríguez, and E. J. Zechmeister (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. Nashville, TN: LAPOP.
Mazariegos, A. 2018. “Los grupos surgidos en las protestas de 2015 luchan por sobrevivir ante la apatía ciudadana.” Plaza Pública. July 22, 2018.
Meléndez, C. (2022). The Post-Partisans: Anti-Partisans, Anti-Establishment Identifiers, and Apartisans in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Meléndez-Sánchez, M., & L. Gamboa (2023). “How Guatemalans Are Defending Their Democracy”. Journal of Democracy. October. Online exclusive https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-guatemalans-are-defending-their-democracy/
Meléndez-Sánchez, M. & L. Perelló (2023). “The June Guatemalan Election Wa san Outlier in Latin America”. El Faro. July 11th, 2023.
Pereyra, S., Gold, T., & Gattoni, M. S. (2023). “Anti-Corruption Social Mobilization in Latin America”. The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Social Movements, 471.
Rodríguez, Mariana (ed.). 2021. Cultura política de la democracia en Guatemala y en las Américas 2021. Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
Sánchez, O. 2008. “Guatemala’s party universe: a case study in underinstitutionalization.” Latin American Politics and Society, 50(1), 123-151.
Sánchez, O. 2023. “Unpacking State Capacity in Guatemala”. In: Sánchez, Omar. State-Society Relations in Guatemala. Theory and practice Lanham: Lexington Books.
Schwartz, R. A., & Isaacs, A. (2023). How Guatemala Defied the Odds. Journal of Democracy, 34(4), 21-35.
Sieder, R. (2007). The judiciary and indigenous rights in Guatemala. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(2), 211-241.
Stuenkel, O. (2023). Guatemala’s Farcical Elections Mirror Broad Democratic Backsliding in Central America. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Meléndez, C. (2023). A resiliência de valores democráticos sob condições difíceis. O caso da Guatemala 2012-2021. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 119–144. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31387
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