Apoio à democracia liberal no Brasil contemporâneo: Um estudo exploratório descritivo
Resumo Como as atitudes democráticas se relacionam com os resultados democráticos? Examinamos essa questão com uma década de dados de alta qualidade sobre a opinião pública e a qualidade democrática no Brasil. A partir dessa base empírica, analisamos as implicações observáveis de quatro perspectivas teóricas – cultura democrática, instrumentalidade baseada na performance, consentimento dos vencedores e dinâmica termostática. Nossos resultados sugerem que as teorias culturais democráticas não podem explicar as tendências que observamos no Brasil. Durante os períodos de crescimento e recessão econômica, as perspectivas baseadas no desempenho instrumental parecem válidas. Mas durante a era recente de retrocesso democrático, a evidência é mais compatível com modelos nos quais os apoiadores do governante toleram a erosão das liberdades civis e dos direitos políticos. Há evidências preliminares de uma reação negativa iniciada nos últimos anos do governo Bolsonaro, mas mais dados são necessários para substanciar essa afirmação.
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Bratton, Michael, and Mattes, Robert. 2001. Support for Democracy in Africa: In-trinsic or Instrumental? British Journal of Political Science, 31(3): 447–74.
Borba, Julian, and Gabriela Ribeiro Cardoso. 2021. Legitimidade democrática e apoio político: inovações recentes no debate internacional. Opinião Pública, (27): 333–59.
Borges, Andre and Lucio Rennó. 2021. Brazilian Response to Covid-19: Polarization and Conflict. In: Fernandez, M.; Machado, C. (ed.). COVID-19’s political challenges in Latin America. Switzerland: Springer, p. 9-22.
Campello, Daniela, and Zucco, Cesar. 2021. The volatility curse: Exogenous shocks and representation in resource-rich democracies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Campello, R. J., Moulavi, D., and Sander, J. (2013). “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates.” In Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (pp. 160-172).
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, Ryan E., & Singer, Matthew M. (2011). Support for Polyarchy in the Americas. Comparative Political Studies, 44(11), 1500-1526.
Castanho Silva, Bruno, Mario Fuks, and Eduardo Ryô Tamaki. So thin it’s almost invisible: Populist attitudes and voting behavior in Brazil. Electoral Studies, 75 (2022): 102434.
Claassen, Christopher. 2020. In the mood for democracy? Democratic support as thermostatic opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1): 36–53.
Claassen, Christopher, and Magalhães, Pedro. 2022. Effective Government and Evaluations of Democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 55(5): 869–94.
Cohen, Mollie, et al. 2022. Winners’ Consent? Citizen Commitment to Democracy When Illiberal Candidates Win Elections. American Journal of Political Science.
Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and opposition, 67(2). New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Easton, David. 1965. A systems analysis of political life. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Easton, David. 1975. A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4): 435–57.
Easton, David, and Dennis, Jack. 1967. The child’s acquisition of regime norms: Po-litical efficacy. American Political Science Review, 61 (1): 25–38.
Foa, Roberto, and Mounk, Yascha. 2016. The danger of deconsolidation: the democratic disconnect. Journal of Democracy, 27(3): 5–17.
Fuks, Mario, Gabriel Casalecchi, and Ednaldo Ribeiro. 2019. Determinantes contextuais da coesão do sistema de crenças democrático: evidências a partir da América Latina. Revista Brasileira de Ciência Política, 28: 7–32.
Fuks, Mario, Ednaldo Ribeiro and Julian Borba. 2021. From Antipetismo to Generalized Antipartisanship: The Impact of Rejection of Political Parties on the 2018 Vote for Bolsonaro. Brazilian Political Science Review, 15(1), e0005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3821202100010003.
Haggard, Stephan, and Robert Kaufman. 2021. Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hawkins, Kirk A. Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser, and Ioannis Andreadis. 2018. The Activation of Populist Attitudes. Government and Opposition, 55(2).
Hunter, Wendy, and Timothy Power. 2019. Bolsonaro and Brazil’s Illiberal Back-lash. Journal of Democracy, 30(1): 68–82.
Kaltwasser, Rovira, and Steven Van Hauwaert. 2020. The populist citizen: Empirical evidence from Europe and Latin America. European Political Science Review, 12(1): 1–18.
Katz, Gabriel, and Ines Levin. 2016. The Dynamics of Political Support in Emerging Democracies: Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Peru. International Journal of Op-erational Research, 28: 173–95.
König, P. D., Siewert, M. B., & Ackermann, K. (2022). Conceptualizing and measuring citizens’ preferences for democracy: Taking stock of three decades of research in a fragmented field. Comparative Political Studies, 55(12), 2015-2049.
Lapper, Richard. 2021. Beef, bible and bullets: Brazil in the age of Bolsonaro. Manchester University Press.
Limongi, Fernando. 2023. Operação Impeachment: Dilma Rousseff e o Brasil da Lava-Jato. São Paulo: Todavia.
Lipset, Seymour. 1959. Some social requisites of democracy: economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review, 53 (1): 69–105.
Magalhães, Pedro. 2014. Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53: 77–97.
Mainwaring, Scott, and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán. 2014. Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University.
Mattes, Robert, and Michael Bratton. 2007. Learning about Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience. American Journal of Political Science, 51(1): 192–217.
Paiva, Denise, Silvana Kruase and Adriana Lameirão. 2016. O eleitor antipetista: partidarismo e avaliação retrospectiva. Opinião Pública, 22(3): 638-674.
Rennó, Lucio. 2020. The Bolsonaro Voter: Issue Positions and Vote Choice in the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 62(4): 1-23.
Rocha, C., E. Solano, and J. Medeiros. (2021). The Bolsonaro Paradox: The Public Sphere and Right-Wing Counterpublicity in Contemporary Brazil. Springer International Publishing.
Schedler, A., & Sarsfield, R. (2007). Democrats with adjectives: Linking direct and indirect measures of democratic support. European Journal of Political Research, 46(5), 637-659.
Singer, Matthew M. 2021. Fiddling while Democracy Burns: Partisan Reactions to Weak Democracy in Latin America. Perspectives on Politics, 21(1): 1–18.
Solano, Esther and Camila Rocha. 2019. As direitas nas redes e nas ruas: a crise política no Brasil. São Paulo: Expressão Popular.
Tai, Yuehong C., Yue Hu, and Frederick Solt. 2022. Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty. American Political Science Review, Fisrt View: 1–7. doi:10.1017/S0003055422000429.
Tamaki, Eduardo, Cezar Braga, and Mario Fuks. 2021. A Drop in the Ocean or a Change in the Weather? Populism in Bolsonaro’s Campaign Revisited. Team Populism—Leader Profile Series.
Tatagiba, Luciana. 2018. Entre as ruas e as instituições: os protestos e o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. Lusotopie, 17(1):112-135.
Bratton, Michael, and Mattes, Robert. 2001. Support for Democracy in Africa: In-trinsic or Instrumental? British Journal of Political Science, 31(3): 447–74.
Borba, Julian, and Gabriela Ribeiro Cardoso. 2021. Legitimidade democrática e apoio político: inovações recentes no debate internacional. Opinião Pública, (27): 333–59.
Borges, Andre and Lucio Rennó. 2021. Brazilian Response to Covid-19: Polarization and Conflict. In: Fernandez, M.; Machado, C. (ed.). COVID-19’s political challenges in Latin America. Switzerland: Springer, p. 9-22.
Campello, Daniela, and Zucco, Cesar. 2021. The volatility curse: Exogenous shocks and representation in resource-rich democracies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Campello, R. J., Moulavi, D., and Sander, J. (2013). “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates.” In Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (pp. 160-172).
Carlin, Ryan E. (2011). Distrusting democrats and political participation in new democracies: Lessons from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 668-687.
Carlin, Ryan E., & Singer, Matthew M. (2011). Support for Polyarchy in the Americas. Comparative Political Studies, 44(11), 1500-1526.
Castanho Silva, Bruno, Mario Fuks, and Eduardo Ryô Tamaki. So thin it’s almost invisible: Populist attitudes and voting behavior in Brazil. Electoral Studies, 75 (2022): 102434.
Claassen, Christopher. 2020. In the mood for democracy? Democratic support as thermostatic opinion. American Political Science Review, 114(1): 36–53.
Claassen, Christopher, and Magalhães, Pedro. 2022. Effective Government and Evaluations of Democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 55(5): 869–94.
Cohen, Mollie, et al. 2022. Winners’ Consent? Citizen Commitment to Democracy When Illiberal Candidates Win Elections. American Journal of Political Science.
Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and opposition, 67(2). New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Easton, David. 1965. A systems analysis of political life. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Easton, David. 1975. A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4): 435–57.
Easton, David, and Dennis, Jack. 1967. The child’s acquisition of regime norms: Po-litical efficacy. American Political Science Review, 61 (1): 25–38.
Foa, Roberto, and Mounk, Yascha. 2016. The danger of deconsolidation: the democratic disconnect. Journal of Democracy, 27(3): 5–17.
Fuks, Mario, Gabriel Casalecchi, and Ednaldo Ribeiro. 2019. Determinantes contextuais da coesão do sistema de crenças democrático: evidências a partir da América Latina. Revista Brasileira de Ciência Política, 28: 7–32.
Fuks, Mario, Ednaldo Ribeiro and Julian Borba. 2021. From Antipetismo to Generalized Antipartisanship: The Impact of Rejection of Political Parties on the 2018 Vote for Bolsonaro. Brazilian Political Science Review, 15(1), e0005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3821202100010003.
Haggard, Stephan, and Robert Kaufman. 2021. Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hawkins, Kirk A. Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser, and Ioannis Andreadis. 2018. The Activation of Populist Attitudes. Government and Opposition, 55(2).
Hunter, Wendy, and Timothy Power. 2019. Bolsonaro and Brazil’s Illiberal Back-lash. Journal of Democracy, 30(1): 68–82.
Kaltwasser, Rovira, and Steven Van Hauwaert. 2020. The populist citizen: Empirical evidence from Europe and Latin America. European Political Science Review, 12(1): 1–18.
Katz, Gabriel, and Ines Levin. 2016. The Dynamics of Political Support in Emerging Democracies: Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Peru. International Journal of Op-erational Research, 28: 173–95.
König, P. D., Siewert, M. B., & Ackermann, K. (2022). Conceptualizing and measuring citizens’ preferences for democracy: Taking stock of three decades of research in a fragmented field. Comparative Political Studies, 55(12), 2015-2049.
Lapper, Richard. 2021. Beef, bible and bullets: Brazil in the age of Bolsonaro. Manchester University Press.
Limongi, Fernando. 2023. Operação Impeachment: Dilma Rousseff e o Brasil da Lava-Jato. São Paulo: Todavia.
Lipset, Seymour. 1959. Some social requisites of democracy: economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review, 53 (1): 69–105.
Magalhães, Pedro. 2014. Government effectiveness and support for democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 53: 77–97.
Mainwaring, Scott, and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán. 2014. Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University.
Mattes, Robert, and Michael Bratton. 2007. Learning about Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience. American Journal of Political Science, 51(1): 192–217.
Paiva, Denise, Silvana Kruase and Adriana Lameirão. 2016. O eleitor antipetista: partidarismo e avaliação retrospectiva. Opinião Pública, 22(3): 638-674.
Rennó, Lucio. 2020. The Bolsonaro Voter: Issue Positions and Vote Choice in the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 62(4): 1-23.
Rocha, C., E. Solano, and J. Medeiros. (2021). The Bolsonaro Paradox: The Public Sphere and Right-Wing Counterpublicity in Contemporary Brazil. Springer International Publishing.
Schedler, A., & Sarsfield, R. (2007). Democrats with adjectives: Linking direct and indirect measures of democratic support. European Journal of Political Research, 46(5), 637-659.
Singer, Matthew M. 2021. Fiddling while Democracy Burns: Partisan Reactions to Weak Democracy in Latin America. Perspectives on Politics, 21(1): 1–18.
Solano, Esther and Camila Rocha. 2019. As direitas nas redes e nas ruas: a crise política no Brasil. São Paulo: Expressão Popular.
Tai, Yuehong C., Yue Hu, and Frederick Solt. 2022. Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty. American Political Science Review, Fisrt View: 1–7. doi:10.1017/S0003055422000429.
Tamaki, Eduardo, Cezar Braga, and Mario Fuks. 2021. A Drop in the Ocean or a Change in the Weather? Populism in Bolsonaro’s Campaign Revisited. Team Populism—Leader Profile Series.
Tatagiba, Luciana. 2018. Entre as ruas e as instituições: os protestos e o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. Lusotopie, 17(1):112-135.
Carlin, R. E., Fuks, M., & Ribeiro, E. (2023). Apoio à democracia liberal no Brasil contemporâneo: Um estudo exploratório descritivo. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 205–234. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31567
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