PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IN CHILE, 1990-2018: VARIANCE IN U-SHAPED CURVES
Abstract Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average.
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Weyland, Kurt, (1998). “Peasants or Bankers in Venezuela? Presidential Popularity and Economic Reform Approval, 1989-1993.” Political Research Quarterly 51 (2):341-362.
Cabezas, José M. (2015). “Presidential Support in Latin America 2010-2012: Economic Vote and Political Preferences.” Política. Revista de Ciencia Política 53 (1):15-35.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Scott de Marchi (2002). “Presidential Approval and Legislative Success.” Journal of Politics 64 (2):491-509.
Carlin, Ryan E., Jonathan Hartlyn, Timothy Hellwig, Gregory J. Love, Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo, & Matthew M. Singer (2016). Executive Approval Database 1.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Carlin, Ryan E., Matthew M. Singer, & Elizabeth J. Zechmeister (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts: University of Michigan Press.
Duch, Raymond M. & Randolph T. Stevenson (2008). The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Edwards III, George C. William Mitchell, & Reed Welch (1995). “Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1):108-134.
Erikson, Robert S. Michael B. MacKuen, & James Stimson (2002). The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge.
Erikson, Robert S. Michael B. MacKuen, & James A. Stimson (2000). “Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval.” Electoral Studies 19:295-312.
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, & James A. Stimson (1989). “Macropartisanship.” The American Political Science Review: 1125-1142.
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, & James A. Stimson (1992). “Peasants or bankers? The American electorate and the US economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (3):597-611.
Manzetti, Luigi & Guillermo Rosas (2015). “Corruption and the Latin American Voter.” In Latin American Voter, 300-323. University of Michigan Press.
Morales, Mauricio & Patricio Navia (2008). “Aprobación al gobierno y a Michelle Bachelet ¿Dónde está la diferencia?” En: Encuesta Nacional UDP. Tercera Versión, edited by Universidad Diego Portales, 25-36. Santiago: Universidad Diego Portales.
Morales, Mauricio & Jorge Saldaña (2009). “Aprobación presidencial en Chile. Los ricos por Lagos, los pobres por Bachelet.” En: Chile 2008. Percepciones y actitudes Sociales, edited by ICSOUDP. Santiago: Universidad Diego Portales.
Murillo, M. Victoria & Giancarlo Visconti (2017). “Economic performance and incumbents’ support in Latin America.” Electoral Studies 45:180-190.
Nannestad, Peter & Martin Paldam (1994). “The VP-function: A survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years.” Public Choice 79 (3-4):213-245.
Navia, Patricio (2006). “La aprobación presidencial en el sexenio de Lagos.” En: El gobierno de Ricardo Lagos. La nueva vía chilena hacia el socialismo, edited by Robert L. Funk. Santiago: Editorial Universidad Diego Portales.
Navia, Patricio & Ignacio Soto Castro (2015). “It’s not the economy, stupid.¿ Qué tanto explica el voto económico los resultados en elecciones presidenciales en Chile, 1999-2013?” Política 53 (1).
Singer, Matthew (2015). “Electoral accountability for the economy in Latin America.” Política. Revista de Ciencia Política 53 (1):37- 72.
Stokes, Susan C. (2001). Public Support for Market Reforms in New Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Weyland, Kurt, (1998). “Peasants or Bankers in Venezuela? Presidential Popularity and Economic Reform Approval, 1989-1993.” Political Research Quarterly 51 (2):341-362.
Cabezas, J. M., & Navia, P. (2019). PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IN CHILE, 1990-2018: VARIANCE IN U-SHAPED CURVES. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 8(2), 63–87. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22354
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