Respuestas a los cambios climáticos: ¿Una cuestión de innovación tecnológica o de cambio en el comportamiento individual?
Abstract El problema de los cambios climáticos ha ocupado un espacio creciente entre las preocupaciones de las diferentes sociedades, al mismo tiempo que se observa un bajo o nulo compromiso individual en acciones capaces de minimizar el problema. Esta paradoja ha sido interpretada, en gran medida, como un reflejo del desacuerdo existente sobre cómo reaccionar mejor ante el problema. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo identificar la percepción de la opinión pública internacional frente a las principales alternativas de respuesta a los cambios climáticos: innovación tecnológica versus cambios en el estilo de vida individual; y los determinantes por detrás de esa posición. La investigación utiliza datos en panel para 15 países, obtenidos en tres unidades de tiempo a lo largo del período 2007-2011, reuniendo datos primarios de surveys de opinión pública y de indicadores secundarios de desarrollo estructural, institucional y ambiental en un modelo de efectos aleatorios. Los resultados muestran el predominio de la elección de soluciones tecnológicas para resolver el problema de los cambios climáticos, especialmente en los países emergentes. Sin embargo, la creencia en la tecnología viene enfrentando una disminución en los últimos años, cediendo espacio para la percepción de que los cambios en el comportamiento individual son necesarios para hacer frente al problema. Las características estructurales, institucionales y ambientales de las naciones explican la percepción de la población sobre el tema, de manera que las naciones que presentan condiciones ambientales menos favorables, mayor desarrollo humano y un fuerte desarrollo institucional tienden a ver como menos efectivas las soluciones tecnológicas para el problema de los cambios climáticos, percibiendo como necesario que se realicen cambios en los hábitos de vida.
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Beck, U. (1992), Risk Society: Towards A New Modernity, Londres, Sage. Beriain, J. (comp.) (1995), Las consecuencias perversas de la modernidad, Barcelona, Anthropos.
Block, B. (2010), “Covering climate change”, en World Watch Magazine 23, n.2, Washington DC, Mar-Apr.
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Chan, N., D. Parker (1996), “Response to dynamic flood hazard factors in peninsular Malaysia”, en The Geographic Journal 162, n. 3, pp. 313-325, Nov.
Dosman, D., W.L. Adamowicz y S. Hrudey (2001), “Socioeconomic determinants of health ?and food safety? related risk perception”, en Risk Analysis 21, n. 2, pp. 307-317, Apr. Dow, K. (1992), “Exploring the differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change”, en Geoforum 23, n. 3, pp. 417-436.
Fankhauser, S., R.S.J. Tol (1997), “The social costs of climate change: the IPCC second assessment report and beyond”, en Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change 1, n. 4, pp. 385-403.
Giddens, A. (2010), A política da mudança climática, Rio de Janeiro, Zahar.
Gourevitch, P. (1993), “Democracy and economic policy: elective affinities and circumstantial conjunctures”, en World Development 21, n. 8, pp. 1271-1280, Aug.
Graham, J.D., B. Chang, J.S. Evans (1992), “Poorer is riskier”, en Risk Analysis 12, n. 3, pp. 333-337, Sep. Hertin, J. et al. (2002), “Business and climate change: measuring and enhancing adaptive capacity”, Progress report: Preliminary Results From The House Building And Water Sector, Brighton, SPRU/Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
Hoffman, A.J. (2007), Carbon Strategies: How Leading Companies Are Reducing Their Climate Change Footprint, Ann Arbor, MI, University of Michigan Press.
Jackson, T. (2005), “Motivating sustainable consumption - a review of evidence on consumer behavior and behavioural change”, en A Report To The Sustainable Development Research Network, Guildford, Centre for Environmental Strategies, University of Surrey.
Jackson, T. (2009), Prosperity Without Growth? The Ttransition To A Sustainable Economy, Londres, Earthscan.
Kim, S., S. Choi (2011), “Individual perception vs. structural context: searching for multilevel determinants of science-technology acceptance across 34 countries” (UnderReview). Disponible en: <http://ajou. ac.kr/~seoyong/paper/Individual%20perception%20 vs.%20structural%20context-with%20Changok%20 Choi.pdf>. Acceso en: 1 ago, 2012.
Lord, C.G., L. Ross, M.R. Lepper (1979), “Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: the effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence”, en Journal Of Personality And Social Psychology 37, n. 11, pp. 2098- 2109, Nov.
Mont, O. et al. (2012), “Exploring pathways towards sustainable lifestyles 2050”, en Global Research Forum On Sustainable Consumption And Production Workshop, Rio de Janeiro, Global Research Forum on SCP. Disponible en: <http://grfscp.files.wordpress. com/2012/05/grf-2012-rio-mont-et-al.pdf>. Acceso en: 6 ago, 2012. O’Brien, K.L. et al. (2006), “Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway”, en Ambio: A Journal Of The Human Environment 35, n. 2, pp.50-56, Mar.
O’Riordan, T., A. Jordan (1999) “Institutions, climate change and cultural theory: towards a common analytical framework”, en Global Environmental Change 9, n.2, pp. 81-93.
Rajan, S.C. (2006), “Climate change dilemma: technology, social change, or both? An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States”, en Energy Policy 34, n. 6, pp. 664-679, Apr.
Rachlinski, J.J. (2000), “The psychology of global climate change”, en University Of Illinois Law Review 2000, n.1, pp. 299-319.
Rayner, S., E.L. Malone (Eds.) (1998), Human Choice And Climate Change, Volume 3: The Tools For Policy Analysis, Columbus, OH, USA, Battelle Press.
Scheraga, J., A. Grambsch (1998), “Risks, opportunities, and adaptation to climate change”, en Climate Research 10, n. 1, pp. 85-95.
Slovic, P. (1999), “Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield”, en Risk Analysis 19, n. 4, pp. 689-701, Aug.
Smith, J.B. y S.S. Lenhart (1996), “Climate change adaptation policy options”, en Climate Research 6, n. 2, pp. 193-201.
Smit, B. y O. Pilifosov (2001), “Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity”, en McCarthy, J.J. et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation And Vulnerability, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, p. 877-912.
UNEP (2009), Global Green New Deal: Policy Brief, United Nations Environment Programme, Mar.
WBCSD (2010), Vision 2050: The New Agenda For Business, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Feb.
Webb, J. (2012), “Climate change and society: the chimera of behaviour change technologies”, en Sociology 46, n. 1, pp. 109-125, Feb.
Whitmarsh, L. (2008), “Are flood victims more concerned about climate change than other people? The role of direct experience in risk perception and behavioural response”, en Journal Of Risk Research 11, n. 3, pp. 351-374.
Winkler, H. y A. Marquard (2009), “Changing development paths: from an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa”, en Climate And Development 1, n. 1, pp. 47-65.
Echegaray, F., & Afonso, M. H. F. (2013). Respuestas a los cambios climáticos: ¿Una cuestión de innovación tecnológica o de cambio en el comportamiento individual?. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 3, 81–111. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22291
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