El poder de la discusión política: revelando la influencia de las redes en el voto y sus mecanismos
Evidencia de Colombia
Resumen Este trabajo explora la influencia de las redes de discusión política en las decisiones electorales. Las siguientes preguntas guían nuestra investigación: ¿qué tipo de redes de discusión afectan las decisiones electorales?, y ¿a través de qué mecanismos se da esta influencia? Argumentamos que discutir de política con otros afecta las decisiones de voto cuando las personas están rodeadas por interlocutores cuyas visiones políticas son homogéneas. Esta influencia puede darse a través de dos mecanismos, uno de información, y otro de presión social. Usando datos de panel de un estudio llevado a cabo en Bogotá antes y después de las elecciones locales de 2011 encontramos evidencia sobre los efectos electorales de las redes de discusión. La homogeneidad de las redes de discusión está correlacionada con cambios en la decisión de voto y ese vínculo parece darse tanto a través de la provisión de información como vía la presión social.
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Ames, B., García-Sánchez, M. & Smith, A. E. (2012). Keeping Up with the Souzas: Social Influence and Electoral Change in a Weak Party System, Brazil 2002–2006. Latin American Politics and Society, 54(2), 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2012.00153.x
Angulo, M. C. (2016). Intención de voto y simpatía partidista en Bogotá. Colombia Internacional, 86, 81-106. http://dx.doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint86.2016.03
Arias, E., Balán, P., Larreguy, H., Marshall, J., & Querubín, P. (2019). Information provision, voter coordination, and electoral accountability: Evidence from Mexican social networks. American Political Science Review, 113(2), 475-498. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000091
Bartels, L. (2000). Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952-1996. American Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 35-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669291
Bail, C. A., Argyle, L., Brown, T. W., Bumpus, J. P., Chen, H., Hunzaker, F., Lee, J., Merhout, M. M. & Volfovsky, A. (2018). Exposure to opposing views on social media can increase political polarization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(37), 9216-9221. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804840115
Baker, A., Ames, B. & Renno, L. (2006). Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 382-399. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00190.x
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Renno, L. (2020). Persuasive peers: social communication and voting in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
Bernstein, R., Chadha, A., & Montjoy, R. (2001). Overreporting voting: Why it happens and why it matters. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65(1), 22-44. https://doi.org/10.1086/320036
Beck, P. A., Dalton, R. J., Greene, S., & Huckfeldt, R. (2002). The social calculus of voting: Interpersonal, media, and organizational influences on presidential choices. American Political Science Review, 96(1), 57-73. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055402004239
Burt, R. S. (2000). The network structure of social capital. Research in Organizational Behavior, 22, 345-423. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-3085(00)22009-1
Campbell, D. E. (2013). Social networks and political participation. Annual Review of Political Science, 16, 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-033011-201728
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press.
Cialdini, R. B. (2007). Descriptive social norms as underappreciated sources of social control. Psychometrika, 72(2), 263.
Fowler, J. H., Heaney, M. T., Nickerson, D. W., Padgett, J. F., & Sinclair, B. (2011). Causality in political networks. American politics research, 39(2), 437-480. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X10396310
Granovetter, M. (1978). Threshold models of collective behavior. American Journal of Sociology, 83(6), 1420-1443. https://doi.org/10.1086/226707
Gordon, S. B., & Segura, G. M. (1997). Cross-national variation in the political sophistication of individuals: Capability or choice? The Journal of Politics, 59(1), 126-147. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998218
Grönlund, K., & Milner, H. (2006). The determinants of political knowledge in comparative perspective. Scandinavian Political Studies, 29(4), 386-406. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2006.00157.x
Huckfeldt, R. R. (1986). Politics in context: Assimilation and conflict in urban neighborhoods. Algora Publishing.
Huckfeldt, R., Mendez, J. M., & Osborn, T. (2004). Disagreement, ambivalence, and engagement: The political consequences of heterogeneous networks. Political Psychology, 25(1), 65-95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2004.00357.x
Huckfeldt, R., & Sprague, J. (1987). Networks in context: The social flow of political information. American Political Science Review, 81(4), 1197-1216. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962585
Ishiyama, J., & Fox, K. (2006). What Affects the Strength of Partisan Identity in Sub‐Saharan Africa?. Politics & Policy, 34(4), 748-773. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2006.00039.x
Kenny, C. (1998). The behavioral consequences of political discussion: Another look at discussant effects on vote choice. the Journal of Politics, 60(1), 231-244. https://doi.org/10.2307/2648009
Kitts, J. (2000). Mobilizing in black boxes: Social networks and participation in social movement organizations. Mobilization: An International Quarterly, 5(2), 241-257. https://doi.org/10.17813/maiq.5.2.5408016w34215787
Knoke, D. (1990). Networks of political action: Toward theory construction. Social Forces, 68(4), 1041-1063. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/68.4.1041
Klofstad, C. A., McClurg, S. D., & Rolfe, M. (2009). Measurement of political discussion networks: A comparison of two “name generator” procedures. Public Opinion Quarterly, 73(3), 462-483. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfp032
Kotler-Berkowitz, L. (2005). Friends and Politics: Linking Diverse Friendship Networks to Political Participation. In A. S. Zuckerman (Ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 152-70. Temple University Press.
Lazarsfeld, P., Berelson, B., & Gaudet, H. (1948). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. Columbia University Press.
Lazer, D., Rubineau, B., Chetkovich, C., Katz, N., & Neblo, M. A. (2008). Networks and political attitudes: Structure, influence, and co-evolution. HKS Working Paper No. RWP08-044.
Lewis‐Beck, M., & Stegmaier, M., (2007). Economic models of voting. In R. J. Dalton & H. Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford University Press.
Levine, J. (2005). Choosing Alone? The Social Network Basis of Modern Political Choice. In A. S. Zuckerman (Ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 132-151. Temple University Press.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press.
McPherson, M., Smith-Lovin, L., & Cook, J. M. (2001). Birds of a feather: Homophily in social networks. Annual Review of Sociology, 27(1), 415-444. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.27.1.415
Molano, A. & Jones, J. (2014). The Causal Effect of Peer Aggression when “Birds of a Feather Flock Together”: Network Structure as Identification Strategy of Peers Effects Unpublished Manuscript.
Mutz, D. C. (2002). The consequences of cross-cutting networks for political participation. American Journal of Political Science, 46(4), 838-855. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088437
Nir, L. (2011). Disagreement and opposition in social networks: Does disagreement discourage turnout? Political Studies, 59(3), 674-692. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.2010.00873.x
Passy, F. (2003). Social Networks Matter. But how? In M. Diani & D. McAdam (Eds.), Social Movements and Networks: Relational Approaches to Collective Action, Oxford University Press.
Resultados Finales Alcaldía. 2011. Escrutinios 30 de octubre de 2011, Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. Retreived from: https://w3.registraduria.gov.co/escrutinio/resultados
Rosenstone Steven, J., & Hansen, J. M. (1993). Mobilization. Participation and Democracy in America New York Macmillan Publishing.
Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. E. (2011). The person and the situation: Perspectives of social psychology. Pinter & Martin Publishers.
Sinclair, B. (2012). The Social Citizen. The University of Chicago Press.
Small, M L. (2017). Someone to Talk To. Oxford University Press.
Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Harvard University Press.
Zuckerman, A. S. (2005). Returning to the Social Logic of Political Behavior. In A. S. Zuckerman (ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 3-20. Temple University Press.
Ames, B., García-Sánchez, M. & Smith, A. E. (2012). Keeping Up with the Souzas: Social Influence and Electoral Change in a Weak Party System, Brazil 2002–2006. Latin American Politics and Society, 54(2), 51–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2012.00153.x
Angulo, M. C. (2016). Intención de voto y simpatía partidista en Bogotá. Colombia Internacional, 86, 81-106. http://dx.doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint86.2016.03
Arias, E., Balán, P., Larreguy, H., Marshall, J., & Querubín, P. (2019). Information provision, voter coordination, and electoral accountability: Evidence from Mexican social networks. American Political Science Review, 113(2), 475-498. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000091
Bartels, L. (2000). Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952-1996. American Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 35-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669291
Bail, C. A., Argyle, L., Brown, T. W., Bumpus, J. P., Chen, H., Hunzaker, F., Lee, J., Merhout, M. M. & Volfovsky, A. (2018). Exposure to opposing views on social media can increase political polarization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(37), 9216-9221. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804840115
Baker, A., Ames, B. & Renno, L. (2006). Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 382-399. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00190.x
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Renno, L. (2020). Persuasive peers: social communication and voting in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
Bernstein, R., Chadha, A., & Montjoy, R. (2001). Overreporting voting: Why it happens and why it matters. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65(1), 22-44. https://doi.org/10.1086/320036
Beck, P. A., Dalton, R. J., Greene, S., & Huckfeldt, R. (2002). The social calculus of voting: Interpersonal, media, and organizational influences on presidential choices. American Political Science Review, 96(1), 57-73. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055402004239
Burt, R. S. (2000). The network structure of social capital. Research in Organizational Behavior, 22, 345-423. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-3085(00)22009-1
Campbell, D. E. (2013). Social networks and political participation. Annual Review of Political Science, 16, 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-033011-201728
Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American Voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press.
Cialdini, R. B. (2007). Descriptive social norms as underappreciated sources of social control. Psychometrika, 72(2), 263.
Fowler, J. H., Heaney, M. T., Nickerson, D. W., Padgett, J. F., & Sinclair, B. (2011). Causality in political networks. American politics research, 39(2), 437-480. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X10396310
Granovetter, M. (1978). Threshold models of collective behavior. American Journal of Sociology, 83(6), 1420-1443. https://doi.org/10.1086/226707
Gordon, S. B., & Segura, G. M. (1997). Cross-national variation in the political sophistication of individuals: Capability or choice? The Journal of Politics, 59(1), 126-147. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998218
Grönlund, K., & Milner, H. (2006). The determinants of political knowledge in comparative perspective. Scandinavian Political Studies, 29(4), 386-406. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2006.00157.x
Huckfeldt, R. R. (1986). Politics in context: Assimilation and conflict in urban neighborhoods. Algora Publishing.
Huckfeldt, R., Mendez, J. M., & Osborn, T. (2004). Disagreement, ambivalence, and engagement: The political consequences of heterogeneous networks. Political Psychology, 25(1), 65-95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2004.00357.x
Huckfeldt, R., & Sprague, J. (1987). Networks in context: The social flow of political information. American Political Science Review, 81(4), 1197-1216. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962585
Ishiyama, J., & Fox, K. (2006). What Affects the Strength of Partisan Identity in Sub‐Saharan Africa?. Politics & Policy, 34(4), 748-773. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2006.00039.x
Kenny, C. (1998). The behavioral consequences of political discussion: Another look at discussant effects on vote choice. the Journal of Politics, 60(1), 231-244. https://doi.org/10.2307/2648009
Kitts, J. (2000). Mobilizing in black boxes: Social networks and participation in social movement organizations. Mobilization: An International Quarterly, 5(2), 241-257. https://doi.org/10.17813/maiq.5.2.5408016w34215787
Knoke, D. (1990). Networks of political action: Toward theory construction. Social Forces, 68(4), 1041-1063. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/68.4.1041
Klofstad, C. A., McClurg, S. D., & Rolfe, M. (2009). Measurement of political discussion networks: A comparison of two “name generator” procedures. Public Opinion Quarterly, 73(3), 462-483. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfp032
Kotler-Berkowitz, L. (2005). Friends and Politics: Linking Diverse Friendship Networks to Political Participation. In A. S. Zuckerman (Ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 152-70. Temple University Press.
Lazarsfeld, P., Berelson, B., & Gaudet, H. (1948). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. Columbia University Press.
Lazer, D., Rubineau, B., Chetkovich, C., Katz, N., & Neblo, M. A. (2008). Networks and political attitudes: Structure, influence, and co-evolution. HKS Working Paper No. RWP08-044.
Lewis‐Beck, M., & Stegmaier, M., (2007). Economic models of voting. In R. J. Dalton & H. Klingemann (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford University Press.
Levine, J. (2005). Choosing Alone? The Social Network Basis of Modern Political Choice. In A. S. Zuckerman (Ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 132-151. Temple University Press.
Lupu, N. (2015). Partisanship in Latin America. In Carlin, R. E., Singer, M. M., & Zechmeister, E. J. (Eds.). (2015). The Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts. University of Michigan Press.
McPherson, M., Smith-Lovin, L., & Cook, J. M. (2001). Birds of a feather: Homophily in social networks. Annual Review of Sociology, 27(1), 415-444. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.27.1.415
Molano, A. & Jones, J. (2014). The Causal Effect of Peer Aggression when “Birds of a Feather Flock Together”: Network Structure as Identification Strategy of Peers Effects Unpublished Manuscript.
Mutz, D. C. (2002). The consequences of cross-cutting networks for political participation. American Journal of Political Science, 46(4), 838-855. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088437
Nir, L. (2011). Disagreement and opposition in social networks: Does disagreement discourage turnout? Political Studies, 59(3), 674-692. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.2010.00873.x
Passy, F. (2003). Social Networks Matter. But how? In M. Diani & D. McAdam (Eds.), Social Movements and Networks: Relational Approaches to Collective Action, Oxford University Press.
Resultados Finales Alcaldía. 2011. Escrutinios 30 de octubre de 2011, Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. Retreived from: https://w3.registraduria.gov.co/escrutinio/resultados
Rosenstone Steven, J., & Hansen, J. M. (1993). Mobilization. Participation and Democracy in America New York Macmillan Publishing.
Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. E. (2011). The person and the situation: Perspectives of social psychology. Pinter & Martin Publishers.
Sinclair, B. (2012). The Social Citizen. The University of Chicago Press.
Small, M L. (2017). Someone to Talk To. Oxford University Press.
Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Harvard University Press.
Zuckerman, A. S. (2005). Returning to the Social Logic of Political Behavior. In A. S. Zuckerman (ed.), The Social Logic of Politics. Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior, 3-20. Temple University Press.
García Sánchez, M., & Botero, F. (2023). El poder de la discusión política: revelando la influencia de las redes en el voto y sus mecanismos : Evidencia de Colombia. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(1), 159–201. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.28163
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