Tolerancia a Posponer Elecciones en Tiempos de Crisis
Resumen Los aplazamientos de elecciones ocurren alrededor del mundo por diferentes motivos. Sin embargo, éstos se generalizaron particularmente durante la pandemia de Covid-19. Poco se conoce sobre cómo el público percibe y reacciona ante tales retrasos democráticos. Para brindar luces sobre este tema, se incluyó un módulo de preguntas en el Barómetro de las Américas 2021 sobre la tolerancia a las alteraciones de la democracia durante períodos de crisis. Los datos revelan que la tolerancia a los aplazamientos de las elecciones es bastante alta. Además, a través de un experimento de redacción, se encuentra que el público está más dispuesto a aceptar retrasos electorales durante una emergencia de salud que durante una condición alternativa (violencia generalizada). El artículo contextualiza estos hallazgos comparándolos con actitudes sobre una ruptura antidemocrática más extrema: un golpe de estado por parte de las fuerzas del orden. Los golpes de Estado son significativamente menos populares que los aplazamientos de elecciones, especialmente durante una emergencia sanitaria. Los resultados incrementan nuestra comprensión sobre la demanda pública por autoritarismo durante períodos de crisis.
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Amat, F., Arenas, A., Falcó-Gimeno, A., & Muñoz, J. (2020). Pandemics meet democracy: experimental evidence from the Covid-19 crisis in Spain. Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/dkusw
Aruguete, N., Calvo, E., Cantú, F., Ley, S., Scartascini, C. & Ventura, T. (2021). The partisan cues and perceived risks: the effect of partisan social media frames during the COVID-19 crisis in Mexico. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup. 1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924740
Bell-Martin, R. V., & Díaz Domínguez, A. (2021). The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 137–162. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26490u
Bisbee, J. & Honig, D. (2021). Flight to safety: COVID-induced changes in the intensity of status quo preference and voting behavior. American Political Science Review, 116(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000691
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5-19.
Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A., & Loewen, P.J. (2021). “The effect of COVID?19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?" European Journal of Political Research 60(2): 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401
Calvo, E. & Ventura, T. (2021). Will I get Covid-19? Partisanship, social media frames, and perceptions of health risk in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society. 63(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2020.30
Claassen, C. (2020). Does public support help democracy survive? American Journal of Political Science 64(1), 118-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12452
Dahl, R.A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and opposition. Yale University Press.
Devine, D., Gaskell, J., Jennings, W. & Stoker, G. (2020). Trust and the Coronavirus Pandemic: What are the Consequences of and for Trust? An Early Review of the Literature. Political Studies Review, 19(2), 274-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929920948684
De Vries, C.E., Bakker, B.N., Hobolt, S.B., & Arceneaux, K. (2021). Crisis signaling: how Italy's coronavirus lockdown affected incumbent support in other European countries. Political Science Research and Methods, 9(3), 451-467. 10.1017/psrm.2021.6
Esaiasson, P., Sohlberg, J., Ghersetti, M., & Johansson, B. (2021). How the coronavirus crisis affects citizen trust in institutions and in unknown others: Evidence from ‘the Swedish experiment’. European Journal of Political Research, 60(3), 748-760. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12419
Fernandez-Navia, T., Polo-Muro, E., & Tercero-Lucas, D. (2021). Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour. European Journal of Political Economy, 69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012
Hawkins, K., Read, M., & Pauwels, T. (2017). Populism and its causes. In Kaltwasser, C. R., Taggart, P. A., Espejo, P. O., & Ostiguy, P. (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of populism (pp. 267-286). Oxford University Press. 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.001.0001
Hyde, S. D., & Marinov, N. (2012). Which elections can be lost?. Political Analysis, 20(2), 191-210. 10.1093/pan/mpr040
James, T.S. & Alihodzic, S. (2020). "When is it democratic to postpone an election? Elections during natural disasters, Covid-19, and emergency situations." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 19(3): 344-362. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0642
Jennings, W. (2020). “Covid-19 and the ‘Rally-Round-the Flag’ effect, UK in a changing Europe.” Working Paper. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/covid-19-and-the-rally-round-the-flag-effect/
Klobovs, L. (2020). “El impacto del Coronavirus en la figura presidencial Argentina.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 15-38. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23517
Kritzinger, S., Foucault, M., Lachat, R., Partheymüller, J., Plescia, C., & Brouard, S. (2021). ‘Rally round the flag’: the COVID-19 crisis and trust in the national government. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1205-1231. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1925017
Landman, T. & Di Gennaro Splendore, L. (2020). Pandemic democracy: Elections and COVID-19. Journal of Risk Research 23(7-8): 1060-1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003
Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: How criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9): 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Lupu, N. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2021). The early Covid-19 pandemic and democratic Attitudes. PloS one 16(6): e0253485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253485
Matlosa, K. (2021). Elections in Africa during Covid-19: The tenuous balance between democracy and human security. Politikon, 48(2): 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2021.1913798
Merolla, J.L. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2009). Democracy at risk. University of Chicago Press.
Moraski, B.J. & Reisinger, W.M. (2007). Eroding democracy: Federal intervention in Russia's gubernatorial elections. Democratization, 14(4), 603-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701398303
Morley, M. T. (2017). Election Emergencies: Voting in the Wake of Natural Disasters and Terrorist Attacks. Emory Law Journal, 67(3), 545. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol67/iss3/6
Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610
Noury, A., François, A., Gergaud, O., & Garel, A. (2021). How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections. PloS one, 16(2), e0247026. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247026
Rapeli, L. & Saikkonen, I. (2020). "How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect democracy?" Democratic Theory, 7(2): 25-32. https://doi.org/10.3167/dt.2020.070204
Repucci, S. & Slipowitz, A. (2020). Democracy under lockdown. Freedom House Organization. https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-report/2020/democracy-under-lockdown
Sales, S. M. (1973). Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 28(1), 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0035588
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid?19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research, 60(4), 1007-1017. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12425
Seligson, M. A., & Booth, J. A. (2009). Predicting coups? Democratic vulnerabilities, the AmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran crisis. Latin American Public Opinion Project “Insights” Series. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/I0821en.pdf
Seligson, M. A., & Carrión, J. F. (2002). Political support, political skepticism, and political stability in new democracies: An empirical examination of mass support for coups d’etat in Peru. Comparative political studies, 35(1), 58-82.
Shapiro, R.Y. (2011). "Public opinion and American democracy." Public Opinion Quarterly 75(5): 982-1017. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfr053
Sobral, F., Carvalho, J., ?agowska, U., Furtado, L. M. G. P., & Grobman, M. (2020). Better safe than sorry: Leadership sensemaking in the time of Covid-19. Revista de Administração Pública, 54(4), 758-781. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-761220200262x
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2020). “Covid-19 and presidential popularity in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71-91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X1200400204
Aruguete, N., Calvo, E., Cantú, F., Ley, S., Scartascini, C. & Ventura, T. (2021). The partisan cues and perceived risks: the effect of partisan social media frames during the COVID-19 crisis in Mexico. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup. 1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924740
Bell-Martin, R. V., & Díaz Domínguez, A. (2021). The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 137–162. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26490u
Bisbee, J. & Honig, D. (2021). Flight to safety: COVID-induced changes in the intensity of status quo preference and voting behavior. American Political Science Review, 116(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000691
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5-19.
Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A., & Loewen, P.J. (2021). “The effect of COVID?19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?" European Journal of Political Research 60(2): 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401
Calvo, E. & Ventura, T. (2021). Will I get Covid-19? Partisanship, social media frames, and perceptions of health risk in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society. 63(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2020.30
Claassen, C. (2020). Does public support help democracy survive? American Journal of Political Science 64(1), 118-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12452
Dahl, R.A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and opposition. Yale University Press.
Devine, D., Gaskell, J., Jennings, W. & Stoker, G. (2020). Trust and the Coronavirus Pandemic: What are the Consequences of and for Trust? An Early Review of the Literature. Political Studies Review, 19(2), 274-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929920948684
De Vries, C.E., Bakker, B.N., Hobolt, S.B., & Arceneaux, K. (2021). Crisis signaling: how Italy's coronavirus lockdown affected incumbent support in other European countries. Political Science Research and Methods, 9(3), 451-467. 10.1017/psrm.2021.6
Esaiasson, P., Sohlberg, J., Ghersetti, M., & Johansson, B. (2021). How the coronavirus crisis affects citizen trust in institutions and in unknown others: Evidence from ‘the Swedish experiment’. European Journal of Political Research, 60(3), 748-760. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12419
Fernandez-Navia, T., Polo-Muro, E., & Tercero-Lucas, D. (2021). Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour. European Journal of Political Economy, 69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012
Hawkins, K., Read, M., & Pauwels, T. (2017). Populism and its causes. In Kaltwasser, C. R., Taggart, P. A., Espejo, P. O., & Ostiguy, P. (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of populism (pp. 267-286). Oxford University Press. 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.001.0001
Hyde, S. D., & Marinov, N. (2012). Which elections can be lost?. Political Analysis, 20(2), 191-210. 10.1093/pan/mpr040
James, T.S. & Alihodzic, S. (2020). "When is it democratic to postpone an election? Elections during natural disasters, Covid-19, and emergency situations." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 19(3): 344-362. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0642
Jennings, W. (2020). “Covid-19 and the ‘Rally-Round-the Flag’ effect, UK in a changing Europe.” Working Paper. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/covid-19-and-the-rally-round-the-flag-effect/
Klobovs, L. (2020). “El impacto del Coronavirus en la figura presidencial Argentina.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 15-38. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23517
Kritzinger, S., Foucault, M., Lachat, R., Partheymüller, J., Plescia, C., & Brouard, S. (2021). ‘Rally round the flag’: the COVID-19 crisis and trust in the national government. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1205-1231. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1925017
Landman, T. & Di Gennaro Splendore, L. (2020). Pandemic democracy: Elections and COVID-19. Journal of Risk Research 23(7-8): 1060-1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003
Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: How criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9): 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Lupu, N. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2021). The early Covid-19 pandemic and democratic Attitudes. PloS one 16(6): e0253485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253485
Matlosa, K. (2021). Elections in Africa during Covid-19: The tenuous balance between democracy and human security. Politikon, 48(2): 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2021.1913798
Merolla, J.L. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2009). Democracy at risk. University of Chicago Press.
Moraski, B.J. & Reisinger, W.M. (2007). Eroding democracy: Federal intervention in Russia's gubernatorial elections. Democratization, 14(4), 603-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701398303
Morley, M. T. (2017). Election Emergencies: Voting in the Wake of Natural Disasters and Terrorist Attacks. Emory Law Journal, 67(3), 545. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol67/iss3/6
Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610
Noury, A., François, A., Gergaud, O., & Garel, A. (2021). How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections. PloS one, 16(2), e0247026. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247026
Rapeli, L. & Saikkonen, I. (2020). "How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect democracy?" Democratic Theory, 7(2): 25-32. https://doi.org/10.3167/dt.2020.070204
Repucci, S. & Slipowitz, A. (2020). Democracy under lockdown. Freedom House Organization. https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-report/2020/democracy-under-lockdown
Sales, S. M. (1973). Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 28(1), 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0035588
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid?19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research, 60(4), 1007-1017. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12425
Seligson, M. A., & Booth, J. A. (2009). Predicting coups? Democratic vulnerabilities, the AmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran crisis. Latin American Public Opinion Project “Insights” Series. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/I0821en.pdf
Seligson, M. A., & Carrión, J. F. (2002). Political support, political skepticism, and political stability in new democracies: An empirical examination of mass support for coups d’etat in Peru. Comparative political studies, 35(1), 58-82.
Shapiro, R.Y. (2011). "Public opinion and American democracy." Public Opinion Quarterly 75(5): 982-1017. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfr053
Sobral, F., Carvalho, J., ?agowska, U., Furtado, L. M. G. P., & Grobman, M. (2020). Better safe than sorry: Leadership sensemaking in the time of Covid-19. Revista de Administração Pública, 54(4), 758-781. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-761220200262x
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2020). “Covid-19 and presidential popularity in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71-91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X1200400204
Plutowski, L., & Zechmeister, E. J. (2022). Tolerancia a Posponer Elecciones en Tiempos de Crisis. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(2), 135–151. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26934
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