Contra todo pronóstico: Pronosticando elecciones presidenciales brasileñas en tiempos de disrupción política
Resumen Cuando el número de elecciones observadas es bajo, se puede usar datos subnacionales para hacer predicciones electorales. Turgeon y Rennó (2012) aplicaron esta solución y propusieron tres modelos de predicción para analizar las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas entre 1994 y 2006. Los modelos, adaptados de los modelos de predicción de elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos y Francia, consideran factores económicos y políticos. Extendemos este análisis a las recientes elecciones presidenciales en Brasil (2010, 2014 y 2018) y demostramos que la adicción de las tres elecciones más recientes no mejora la precisión de los modelos predictivos, aunque fortalece la relación entre las variables explicativas y el voto por el titular. También concluimos que los modelos basados en la popularidad del titular superan a los basados en encuestas electorales y que los modelos de predicción electoral pueden sobrevivir a elecciones ruidosas como la de 2018, que condujo al ascenso inesperado de un candidato de la extrema derecha, Jair Bolsonaro.
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Baker, A., Ames, B., & Rennó, L. (2020). Persuasive Peers. Princeton University Press.
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Bunker, K., & Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Pronósticos Electorales y Seguimiento de Opinión Publica en Latino América: Una aplicación a Chile. Política. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Campbell, J. E. (1992). Forecasting the presidential vote in the states. American Journal of Political Science, 1, 386-407.
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Campbell, J. E. (2017). A recap of the 2016 election forecasts. PS, Political Science & Politics, 50, 331-338.
Cantu, F.; Hoyo, V. and Morales, M. A. (2016). The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28, 96-116.
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Duque, D, and Smith, A. (2019). The Establishment Upside Down: A Year of Change in Brazil. Revista de Ciencia Política, 39(2), 165-189.
Foucault, M., & Nadeau, R. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(2), 218-222.
Jastramskis, M. (2012). Election forecasting in Lithuania: The case of municipal elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 822-829.
Jérôme, B., & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2004). Forecasting the 2002 elections: Lessons from a political economy model. In M. Lewis-Beck (ed.), The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections (pp. 178-204). Palgrave Macmillan.
Jérôme, B., & Jerôme-Speziari, V. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Lessons from a region-by-region political economy model. French Politics, 10(4), 373-377.
Jerôme, B., & Jerôme-Speziari, V. (2016). State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 680-686.
Jérôme, B., Jérôme, V., Mongrain, P., & Nadeau, R. (2021). State-level forecasts for the 2020 us presidential election: Tough victory ahead for biden. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 77-80.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, É. and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2008). Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royel and the Iowa Model. French Politics, 6, 106-115.
Pereira, C. and Bertholini, F. (2018). Coalition Management in Multiparty Presidential Regimes. In B. Ames (ed.) Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics (pp. 313-330). Routledge.
Powell Jr, G. B. (2004). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L. R. (2020). The Bolsonaro voter: Issue positions and vote choice in the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 62, 1-23.
Samuels, D. and C. Zucco. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press.
Toros, E. (2012). Forecasting Turkish Local elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 813-821.
Turgeon, M. and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian presidential elections: Solving the N problem. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-812.
Auberger, A. (2010). Popularity and vote: forecasting the 2007 French presidential election. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, 43(1), 123-136.
Baker, A., Ames, B., & Rennó, L. (2020). Persuasive Peers. Princeton University Press.
Beck, N., (2001). Time-series–cross-section data: What have we learned in the past few years? Annual Review of Political Science, 4(1), 271-293.
Berry, M. J., & Bickers, K. N. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 presidential election with state-level economic indicators. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(4), 669-674.
Bunker, K., & Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Pronósticos Electorales y Seguimiento de Opinión Publica en Latino América: Una aplicación a Chile. Política. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207-233.
Campbell, J. E. (1992). Forecasting the presidential vote in the states. American Journal of Political Science, 1, 386-407.
Campbell, J. E. (2008). The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election. PS: Political Science and Politics, 41, 697-701.
Campbell, J. E. (2017). A recap of the 2016 election forecasts. PS, Political Science & Politics, 50, 331-338.
Cantu, F.; Hoyo, V. and Morales, M. A. (2016). The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28, 96-116.
Dubois, E. and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2004). Vote Functions in France and the 2002 Election Forecast. In M. Lewis-Beck (ed.), The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections (pp. 205-230). Palgrave-MacMillan.
Duque, D, and Smith, A. (2019). The Establishment Upside Down: A Year of Change in Brazil. Revista de Ciencia Política, 39(2), 165-189.
Foucault, M., & Nadeau, R. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(2), 218-222.
Jastramskis, M. (2012). Election forecasting in Lithuania: The case of municipal elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 822-829.
Jérôme, B., & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2004). Forecasting the 2002 elections: Lessons from a political economy model. In M. Lewis-Beck (ed.), The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections (pp. 178-204). Palgrave Macmillan.
Jérôme, B., & Jerôme-Speziari, V. (2012). Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Lessons from a region-by-region political economy model. French Politics, 10(4), 373-377.
Jerôme, B., & Jerôme-Speziari, V. (2016). State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 680-686.
Jérôme, B., Jérôme, V., Mongrain, P., & Nadeau, R. (2021). State-level forecasts for the 2020 us presidential election: Tough victory ahead for biden. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 77-80.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Bélanger, É. and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2008). Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royel and the Iowa Model. French Politics, 6, 106-115.
Pereira, C. and Bertholini, F. (2018). Coalition Management in Multiparty Presidential Regimes. In B. Ames (ed.) Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics (pp. 313-330). Routledge.
Powell Jr, G. B. (2004). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105.
Rennó, L. R. (2020). The Bolsonaro voter: Issue positions and vote choice in the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 62, 1-23.
Samuels, D. and C. Zucco. (2018). Partisans, antipartisans, and nonpartisans: voting behavior in Brazil. Cambridge University Press.
Toros, E. (2012). Forecasting Turkish Local elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 813-821.
Turgeon, M. and Rennó, L. (2012). Forecasting Brazilian presidential elections: Solving the N problem. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 804-812.
Bertholini, F., Rennó, L., & Turgeon, M. (2022). Contra todo pronóstico: Pronosticando elecciones presidenciales brasileñas en tiempos de disrupción política. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(1), 129–147. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25882
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