PERSONALITY AND AN INTERNAL ENEMY: UNDERSTANDING THE POPULARITY OF ÁLVARO URIBE, 2002-2010
Abstract During two terms in office, Álvaro Uribe enjoyed very high approval ratings. This deviates from the typical approval patterns exhibited by most executives in the region and from prior Colombian presidents. In this paper we give elements to understand what explains Uribe’s eight-year honeymoon. Here we argue that Uribe’s popularity was the interplay of three factors: A ruling style that allowed him to build an affective link with citizens. Uribe’s ability to create a rally-around-the-flag atmosphere regarding the internal armed conflict. And a booming economy. Using regression models based on cross-national and survey data results indicate that: Uribe exhibited high approval ratings because he was part of a group of Latin American executives who developed a government style based on an emotional link with people, and that those citizens who saw the internal conflict as the main problem in Colombia and were more exposed to Uribe’s messages about the insurgent threat were more likely to support him.
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MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, & James A. Stimson (1992). “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the US Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (3): 597–611.
Matanock, Aila M. & Miguel García-Sánchez (2017). “The Colombian Paradox: Peace Processes, Elite Divisions & Popular Plebiscites.” Daedalus 146 (4): 152–166.
Merolla, Jennifer L. & Elizabeth J. Zechmeister (2009). “Las percepciones de liderazgo en el contexto de las elecciones mexicanas de 2006.” Política y Gobierno 16 (1).
Mueller, John E. (1973). War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. John Wiley & Sons.
Nadeau, Richard, Richard G. Niemi, & Antoine Yoshinaka (2002). “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context across Time and Nations.” Electoral Studies 21 (3): 403–423.
Ortiz-Ayala, Alejandra & Miguel García-Sánchez (2014). “‘Porque te quiero te apoyo’. Estilo de gobierno y aprobación presidencial en América Latina.” Revista de Ciencia Política 34 (2).
Powell Jr, G. Bingham & Guy D. Whitten (1993). “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science, 391–414.
Rettberg, Angelika (2010). “Colombia 2009, Progress and Uncertainty.” Revista de Ciencia Política 30 (2): 249–273.
Sierra, Luz María (2015). “Álvaro Uribe: un presidente de teflón. La estrategia de opinión pública que lo hizo inmune a las crisis.” En: De Uribe, Santos y otras especies políticas. Comunicación de gobierno en Colombia, Argentina y Brasil. Bogotá: Ediciones Uniandes.
Singer, Matthew M. & Ryan E. Carlin (2013). “Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting.” The Journal of Politics 75 (3): 730–742.
Sullivan, John L., John H. Aldrich, Eugene Borgida, & Wendy Rahn (1990). “Candidate Appraisal and Human Nature: Man and Superman in the 1984 Election.” Political Psychology, 459–484.
Weber, Max (1977). Economía y sociedad. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Zaller, John R. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press.
Aldrich, John H., Paul Gronke, & Jeff Grynaviski (1999). “Policy, Personality, and Presidential Performance.” In: Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, at Chicago, Illinois. Citeseer.
Anderson, Christopher J. (1996). “Economics, Politics, and Foreigners: Populist Party Support in Denmark and Norway.” Electoral Studies 15 (4): 497–511.
Anderson, Christopher J. (2000). “Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective.” Electoral Studies 19 (2): 151–170.
Anderson, Christopher J. (2007). “The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability.” Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 10: 271–296. Arce, Moisés (2003). “Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru.” Journal of Politics 65 (2): 572–583.
Bartels, Larry M. (2000). “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952- 1996.” American Journal of Political Science, 35–50.
Bonilla, Jorge Iván (2015). “Los años en los que tuvimos presidente: Comunicación política presidencial en Colombia: 2002- 2010.” En: De Uribe, Santos y otras especies políticas. Comunicación de gobierno en Colombia, Argentina y Brasil, Ediciones Uniandes. Bogotá.
Botero, Felipe & María Lucía Méndez (2008). “¿Reir o llorar?: El drama del conflicto y la resiliencia de la economía en Colombia, 2007.” Revista de Ciencia Política 28 (1): 121–145.
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, & Donald E. Stokes (1960). The American Voter. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Carlin, Ryan E., Gregory J. Love, & Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo (2015). “Security, Clarity of Responsibility, and Presidential Approval.” Comparative Political Studies 48 (4): 438–463.
Carlin, Ryan E., Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo, & Jonathan Hartlyn (2012). “Executive Approval Dynamics under Alternative DemREVISTA ocratic Regime Types.” In: Douglas Chalmers & Scott Mainwaring, Institutions and Democracy: Essays in Honor of Alfred Stepan, South Bend: University of Notre Dame Press. https:// static1.squarespace.com/static/54b81429e4b0ac034b1a5b24/t/5 4bc3360e4b096702d470662/1421620064339/Chalmers-07_ CarlinMartinez-Gallardo%26Hartlyn2012.pdf.
Carlin, Ryan E., Jonathan Hartlyn, Timothy Hellwig, Gregory J. Love, Cecilia Martinez-Gallardo, & Matthew M. Singer (2016). Executive Approval Database 1.0. Available for download at www.executiveapproval.org.
Druckman, James N. (2004). “Priming the Vote: Campaign Effects in a US Senate Election.” Political Psychology 25 (4): 577–594.
Eichenberg, Richard C., Richard J. Stoll, & Matthew Lebo (2006). “War President: The Approval Ratings of George W. Bush.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (6): 783–808.
Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. Mackuen, & James A. Stimson (2002). The Macro Polity. Cambridge University Press.
Fiorina, Morris P. (2002). “Parties and Partisanship: A 40-Year Retrospective.” Political Behavior 24 (2): 93–115.
Franzese, Robert J. & Cindy Kam (2009). Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. University of Michigan Press.
Funk, Carolyn L. (1996). “The Impact of Scandal on Candidate Evaluations: An Experimental Test of the Role of Candidate Traits.” Political Behavior 18 (1): 1–24.
García-Sánchez, Miguel & Laura Wills (2011). “El Poder de la televisión. Medios de comunicación y aprobación presidencial en Colombia.” Medios, democracia y poder. Una mirada comparada desde Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela y Argentina, 135–57.
Gélineau, François & Matthew M. Singer (2015). “The Economy and Incumbent Support in Latin America.” In: The Latin America Voter. Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Gronke, Paul & Brian Newman (2003). “FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval.” Political Research Quarterly 56 (4): 501–512.
Hellwig, Timothy & David Samuels (2007). “Voting in Open Economies: The Electoral Consequences of Globalization.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (3): 283–306.
Holmberg, Sören (1994). “Party Identification Compared across the Atlantic.” Elections at Home and Abroad: Essays in Honor of Warren E. Miller, 93–121.
Hoskin, Gary, Rodolfo Macías, & Miguel García-Sánchez (2003). Colombia 2002: Elecciones, comportamiento electoral y democracia. Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales- Ceso.
Kinder, Donald R. & D. Roderick Kiewiet (1981). “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science 11 (2): 129–161.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & Mary Stegmaier (2009). “American Voter to Economic Voter: Evolution of an Idea.” Electoral Studies 28 (4): 625–631.
Lyons, Michael (1997). “Presidential Character Revisited.” Political Psychology 18 (4): 791–811.
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, & James A. Stimson (1992). “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the US Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (3): 597–611.
Matanock, Aila M. & Miguel García-Sánchez (2017). “The Colombian Paradox: Peace Processes, Elite Divisions & Popular Plebiscites.” Daedalus 146 (4): 152–166.
Merolla, Jennifer L. & Elizabeth J. Zechmeister (2009). “Las percepciones de liderazgo en el contexto de las elecciones mexicanas de 2006.” Política y Gobierno 16 (1).
Mueller, John E. (1973). War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. John Wiley & Sons.
Nadeau, Richard, Richard G. Niemi, & Antoine Yoshinaka (2002). “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context across Time and Nations.” Electoral Studies 21 (3): 403–423.
Ortiz-Ayala, Alejandra & Miguel García-Sánchez (2014). “‘Porque te quiero te apoyo’. Estilo de gobierno y aprobación presidencial en América Latina.” Revista de Ciencia Política 34 (2).
Powell Jr, G. Bingham & Guy D. Whitten (1993). “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science, 391–414.
Rettberg, Angelika (2010). “Colombia 2009, Progress and Uncertainty.” Revista de Ciencia Política 30 (2): 249–273.
Sierra, Luz María (2015). “Álvaro Uribe: un presidente de teflón. La estrategia de opinión pública que lo hizo inmune a las crisis.” En: De Uribe, Santos y otras especies políticas. Comunicación de gobierno en Colombia, Argentina y Brasil. Bogotá: Ediciones Uniandes.
Singer, Matthew M. & Ryan E. Carlin (2013). “Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting.” The Journal of Politics 75 (3): 730–742.
Sullivan, John L., John H. Aldrich, Eugene Borgida, & Wendy Rahn (1990). “Candidate Appraisal and Human Nature: Man and Superman in the 1984 Election.” Political Psychology, 459–484.
Weber, Max (1977). Economía y sociedad. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Zaller, John R. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press.
García-Sánchez, M., & Rodríguez-Raga, J. C. (2019). PERSONALITY AND AN INTERNAL ENEMY: UNDERSTANDING THE POPULARITY OF ÁLVARO URIBE, 2002-2010. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 8(2), 89–123. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22355
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