Pre-Election Poll Estimations in Mexico: In Search for the Main Sources of Error

Abstract

In this paper we test different hypotheses that reflect some of the most common sources of estimation error in pre-election polls. We test for questionnaire design effects, sampling effects, interviewer effects, spiral of silence effects, and several contextual effects (such as the perception of safety or danger in a polling point in face-to-face polls). We analyze data from a state-level pre-election poll conducted in the State of Mexico on June 2011, two weeks prior to election-day. This poll included an embedded experiment about the placement of the voting question and recorded several contextual variables that allow us to test for different possible sources of estimation error. In addition, this paper offers a brief review of preelection polling in Mexico during the last two decades, evaluating the polls’ performance in both national and state-level elections. This analysis is part (and certainly the first formal step) of a larger effort by polling firms and public opinion researchers, as well as by the Federal Elections Institute, to determine the most common causes of estimation error in Mexican pre-election polls.
  • Referencias
  • Cómo citar
  • Del mismo autor
  • Métricas
American National Election Studies, ANES (2007), Time of presidential election vote decision1948–2004, retrieved September 8, 2011, from http://www.electionstudies. org/nesguide/toptable/tab9a_3.htm.

Basáñez, Miguel (1995), “Public Opinion Polling in Mexico”, In Peter H. Smith (ed.), Latin America In Comparative Perspective: New Approaches To Methods And Analysis. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Brambor, Thomas, William R. Clark, and Matt Golder (2006), “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses”, Political Analysis, vol. 14 no. 1:63-82.

Kam, Cindy K. and Robert J. Franzese, Jr. (2007), Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.

Magalhães, Pedro (2005), “Pre-Election Polls in Portugal: Accuracy, Bias, and Sources of Error, 1991-2004”, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, vol. 17, no. 4: 399-421.

Moreno, Alejandro (2009a), “Encuestas y elecciones en México: La precisión de estimaciones preelectorales en un contexto de cambio” [Polls and elections in Mexico: The accuracy of pre-election estimates in a changing context], paper presented at the Second WAPOR Latin American Congress, Lima, Peru, 22-24 April.

Moreno, Alejandro (2009b), La decisión electoral: votantes, partidos y democracia en México [Electoral Choice: Voters, Parties and Democracy in Mexico], Mexico City, Miguel Angel Porrua.

Nir, Lilach and James Druckman (2008), “Campaign Mixed Message Flows and Timing of Vote Decision”, International Journal of Public Opinion, vol. 20, nr. 3: 326-346.

Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth (1993 [1984]), The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion, Our Social Skin, 2nd edition, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.

Przeworski, Adam (1991), Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Reuters, 17 April 2007, Poll: Nearly half of French voters undecided. [URL: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/ europe/04/09/france.election. poll.reut/index.html.]

Romero, Vidal, and Carlo Varela (2011), “La precisión de las encuestas preelectorales” [Pree-election poll accuracy (in Mexico)], Última Instancia: Revista de Estudios Jurídico Electorales, Vol. 2, No. 0, Summer. Pp: 30-37.

Romero, Vidal (Forthcoming), “Notas para la evaluación de las encuestas preelectorales: Las elecciones para gobernador de 2010 en México”, Política y Gobierno. Sartori, Giovanni (1976), Parties and Party Systems, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Schmitt-Beck, R. and T. Faas (2006), “The campaign and its dynamics at the 2005 German general election”, German Politics, nr. 15: 393–419.

Scheufele, Dietram A. (2008), “Spiral of Silence Theory”, in Wolfgang Donsbach y Michael W. Traugott (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Public Opinion Research. London, Sage.

Traugott, Michael (2005), “The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election”, Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 69, no. 5, special issue: 642-54.

Traugott, Michael, and Christopher Wlezien (2011), “Media Coverage as a Contextual Explanation for Estimation Errors in Pre-Primary Polls in the United States”, paper presented at the 64th Annual Conference of the World Association for Public Opinion Research, WAPOR, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, September 21-23.

Weisberg, Herbert (2008), “The Methodological Strengths and Weaknesses of Survey Research”, in Wolfgang Donsbach and Michael Traugott (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Public Opinion Research, London, Sage.

Zaller, John (2004), “Floating voters in U.S. Presidential elections, 1948-2000”, in P. M. Sniderman and W. E. Saris (eds.), Studies in Public Opinion, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.
Moreno, A., Aguilar, R., & Romero, V. (2014). Pre-Election Poll Estimations in Mexico: In Search for the Main Sources of Error. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 4, 49–93. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22299

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
+