Accuracy of the 2024 Mexican Presidential Pre-Election Polls by Approach Method
Abstract
This essay presents the results of an analysis of national surveys published to measure voting intentions for the 2024 Mexican Presidency election.
Two hypotheses are proposed: one, that the accuracy of the surveys should have been greater when they were conducted closer to the election; and two, that the accuracy of the surveys should have been greater when they were conducted in person.
The data presented refute the hypotheses: one, the accuracy of the surveys regarding the outcome of the election was greater when they were conducted before the start of the campaigns and not close to the election; and two, the accuracy of the surveys was greater in surveys conducted by telephone and with a human operator than when they were conducted in person.
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