Accuracy of the 2024 Mexican Presidential Pre-Election Polls by Approach Method
Abstract
This essay presents the results of an analysis of national surveys published to measure voting intentions for the 2024 Mexican Presidency election.
Two hypotheses are proposed: one, that the accuracy of the surveys should have been greater when they were conducted closer to the election; and two, that the accuracy of the surveys should have been greater when they were conducted in person.
The data presented refute the hypotheses: one, the accuracy of the surveys regarding the outcome of the election was greater when they were conducted before the start of the campaigns and not close to the election; and two, the accuracy of the surveys was greater in surveys conducted by telephone and with a human operator than when they were conducted in person.
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Gelman, A., & Little, T. C. (1997). Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression. Survey Methodology, 23(2), 127–135. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/12-001-X19970023769
Habermas, J. (1984). The theory of communicative action: Vol. 1. Reason and the rationalization of society (T. McCarthy, Trans.). Beacon Press. https://archive.org/details/theoryofcommunic01habe
INE Instituto Nacional Electoral. (2024). Cómputos distritales 2024: Elecciones federales. México. https://computos2024.ine.mx/
Mitofsky, W. J. (1998). Review: Was 1996 a Worse Year for Polls than 1948? The Public Opinion Quarterly. Vol. 62, No. 2 (Summer). https://www.jstor.org/stable/2749624
Mosteller, F. (1949). Measuring the error. En: Mosteller, F., Hyman, H., McCarthy, P. J., Marks, E. S., & Truman, D. B. (1949). The pre-election polls of 1948: Report of the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts (Bulletin 60). Social Science Research Council. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2745396
Myerson, R. B., & Weber, R. J. (1993). A theory of voting equilibria. The American Political Science Review, 87(1), 102–114. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938959
Noelle-Neumann, E. (1984). The spiral of silence: Public opinion, our social skin. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo3621758.html
Valdés, L. (1993). Reformas electorales en México: Consecuencias políticas (1978-1991). [Tesis doctoral inédita]. El Colegio de México. https://repositorio.colmex.mx/concern/theses/000000396?locale=es
CEDE Colegio de Especialistas en Demoscopia y Encuestas (2024). Observatorio electoral 2024. México. http://cede.org.mx/web2016/observatorio-electoral-2024/
Cochran, W. G. (1977). Sampling techniques (3rd Ed.). Wiley. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Sampling+Techniques%2C+3rd+Edition-p-9780471162407https://hwbdocs.env.nm.gov/Los%20Alamos%20National%20Labs/General/14447.pdf
Cox, G. W. (1997). Making votes count: Strategic coordination in the world’s electoral systems. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/making-votes-count/2D77BBF3B293B5D0B7D0B6C4A9F6D4C4
Cox, G. W., & Katz, J. N. (1996). Why did the incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections grow? American Journal of Political Science, 40(2), 478-497. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111633
De la Peña, R. (2025). Base de datos de encuestas nacionales sobre preferencias para la elección por la Presidencia de la República en México, 2024. Harvard Dataverse, V2. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/27PSQ1,
Fey, M. (1997). Stability and coordination in Duverger’s law: A formal model of preelection polls and strategic voting. The American Political Science Review, 91(1), 135-147. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2952263
GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados e ISA Investigaciones Sociales Aplicadas (GEA-ISA). (2024a). Encuesta nacional simultánea a las elecciones federales 2024 a votantes a la salida de casillas (2 de junio de 2024). Reporte de resultados. https://www.precisa90.com/contenido/GIMX2406p.pdf
GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados e ISA Investigaciones Sociales Aplicadas (GEA-ISA). (2024b). Encuesta nacional simultánea a las elecciones federales 2024 a votantes a la salida de casillas (2 de junio de 2024). Base de datos. Harvard Dataverse, V1. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KVWXE1
Gelman, A., & Little, T. C. (1997). Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression. Survey Methodology, 23(2), 127–135. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/12-001-X19970023769
Habermas, J. (1984). The theory of communicative action: Vol. 1. Reason and the rationalization of society (T. McCarthy, Trans.). Beacon Press. https://archive.org/details/theoryofcommunic01habe
INE Instituto Nacional Electoral. (2024). Cómputos distritales 2024: Elecciones federales. México. https://computos2024.ine.mx/
Mitofsky, W. J. (1998). Review: Was 1996 a Worse Year for Polls than 1948? The Public Opinion Quarterly. Vol. 62, No. 2 (Summer). https://www.jstor.org/stable/2749624
Mosteller, F. (1949). Measuring the error. En: Mosteller, F., Hyman, H., McCarthy, P. J., Marks, E. S., & Truman, D. B. (1949). The pre-election polls of 1948: Report of the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts (Bulletin 60). Social Science Research Council. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2745396
Myerson, R. B., & Weber, R. J. (1993). A theory of voting equilibria. The American Political Science Review, 87(1), 102–114. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938959
Noelle-Neumann, E. (1984). The spiral of silence: Public opinion, our social skin. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo3621758.html
Valdés, L. (1993). Reformas electorales en México: Consecuencias políticas (1978-1991). [Tesis doctoral inédita]. El Colegio de México. https://repositorio.colmex.mx/concern/theses/000000396?locale=es
de la Peña, R. (2026). Accuracy of the 2024 Mexican Presidential Pre-Election Polls by Approach Method. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 15, e32479. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.32479
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