Why Emigration Is Costly for Incumbents: the Case of El Salvador
Abstract El Salvador has the most popular president in Latin America, even as Salvadorans continue to migrate to the United States in high numbers. While emigration can serve as a safety valve that benefits incumbents, it also reflects a rejection of the status quo, producing a signal that negatively affects presidential popularity. This paper uses a survey of a nationally represented sample of Salvadorans with an embedded experiment. Respondents are primed on the number of apprehensions of Salvadorans attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, which highlights the costly decision to leave El Salvador. The survey results show that emigration reduces presidential approval and generates pessimism about the status quo. Information about migrant apprehensions also negatively affects prospective outlooks over one’s personal economy. The study underscores how emigration can negatively affect incumbents despite the long-term political and economic benefits emigration may bring.
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Druckman, J. N.; & Leeper, T. J. (2012). Learning more from political communication experiments: Pretreatment and its effects. American Journal of Political Science, 56(4):875-896.
Díaz, M. (2023). Salvadoreños siguen migrando por factores de inseguridad, económico y reunificación familiar. Technical report, Instituto de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación de la Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG). https://www.disruptiva.media/salvadorenos-siguen-migrando-por-factores-de-inseguridad-economico-y-reunificacion-familiar/
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Escribà-Folch, A.; Meseguer, C.; & Wright, J. (2022). Migration and Democracy: How Remittances Undermine Dictatorships. Princeton University Press.
Ferwerda, J.; & Gest, J. (2021). Pull factors and migration preferences: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa. International Migration Review, 55(2):431-459.
Fitzgerald, J.; Leblang, D.; & Teets, J. C. (2014). Defying the Law of Gravity: The Political Economy of International Migration. World Politics, 66(3):406-445.
Flores-Yeffal, N. Y.; & Pren, K. A. (2018). Predicting Unauthorized Salvadoran Mi- grants’ First Migration to the United States between 1965 and 2007. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 6(2):131-144. Publisher: SAGE Publications Inc.
Gaines, B. J.; Kuklinski, J. H.; & Quirk, P. J. (2007). The logic of the survey experiment reexamined. Political analysis, 15(1):1-20.
Germano, R. (2013). Migrants’ remittances and economic voting in the Mexican countryside. Electoral Studies, 32(4):875-885.
Gessler, T., Tóth, G.; & Wachs, J. (2021). No Country for Asylum Seekers? How Short-Term Exposure to Refugees Influences Attitudes and Voting Behavior in Hungary. Political Behavior.
Girón, G. (2023). Bukele, ese fenómeno de Twitter que se expande por Latinoamérica. Malayerba. 16 de julio 2023. https://mala-yerba.com/bukele-ese-fenomeno-de-twitter-que-se-expande-por-latinoamerica
Goodman, G. L. and Hiskey, J. T. (2008). Exit without Leaving: Political Disengagement in High Migration Municipalities in Mexico. Comparative Politics, 40(2):169-188.
Guachalla, V. X. V., Hummel, C., Handlin, S., and Smith, A. E. (2021). Latin America erupts: When does competitive authoritarianism take root? Journal of Democracy, 32(3):63-77.
Guriev, S.; & Treisman, D. (2019). Informational autocrats. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4):100-127.
Guzman, J. (2022). FMI recomienda a El Salvador reestructurar salarios públicos y orientar mejor los subsidios. El Diario de Hoy. 29 de enero 2022. https://historico.elsalvador.com/historico/922161/fmi-recomendaciones-el-salvador-salarios-subsidios.html
Hirschman, A. O. (1972). Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Hirschman, A. O. (1993). Exit, Voice, and the Fate of the German Democratic Republic: An Essay in Conceptual History. World Politics, 45(2):173-202.
Hiskey, J.; Montalvo, J. D.; & Orcés, D. (2014). Democracy, governance, and emigration intentions in Latin America and the Caribbean. Studies in Comparative International Development, 49:89-111.
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