Militarism, Authoritarianism and Corruption: Post-Coup Honduras and the Decline of Democracy
Abstract This paper uses the Americas Barometer survey series, 2004-2021, consisting of national probability surveys representative of the voting age population to examine the evolution of democratic political culture in Honduras. As our analysis indicates, there has been significant democratic backsliding since 2009. Many of the events we trace in our analysis –the decline of rule of law, rising violence, illegitimate elections, the generalized environment of repression, endemic corruption, and economic decline– are largely the consequences of the 2009 coup and reflect the underlying structural and political conditions that help explain the unprecedented electoral victory of Xiomara Castro in 2021.
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Pérez, Orlando J. (2011). “Crime, Insecurity and Erosion of Democratic Values in Latin America”. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 1(1): 61-86.
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Welsh, Ericka. (2017). “The Path of Most Resistance: Resisting Gang Recruitment as a Political Opinion in Central America’s Join-or-Die Gang Culture”. Pepperdine Law Review, 44: 1083. https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/plr/vol44/iss5/4.
Applebaum, Anne. (2020). Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism. Anchor Books.
Bermeo, Sarah and David Leblang. (2021). “Climate, violence, and Honduran migration to the United States.” Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/04/01/climate-violence-and-honduran-migration-to-the-united-states/.
Blanco, Luisa, and Isabel Ruiz. (2013). “The Impact of Crime and Insecurity on Trust in Democracy and Institutions.” American Economic Review, 103(3): 284–88.
Campello, Ricardo, Davoud Moulavi, and Jörg Sander. (2013). “Density-based clustering based on hierarchical density estimates.” Pacific-Asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. Springer.
Castorena, Oscar, and Sarah L. Graves. (2019). “Support for Electoral Democracy.” In Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., and Noam Lupu (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. LAPOP.
Centro de Derechos de Mujeres. (2019). “Datos y reflexiones: violencias contra las mujeres 2017-2018.” Observatorio de derechos Humanos de las Mujeres. http://derechosdelamujer.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Boletin_v3.pdf.
Ceobanu, Alin M., Charles H. Wood, and Ludmila Ribeiro. (2011). “Crime Victimization and Public Support for Democracy: Evidence from Latin America.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23(1): 56–78.
Chayes, Sarah. (2007). When Corruption Is the Operating System: The Case of Honduras. Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
Comisión de Verdad y la Reconciliación. (2011). “Hallazgos y recomendaciones para que los hechos no se repitan. Informe de la Comision de la Verdad y la Reconciliacion.” https://www.oas.org/es/sap/docs/DSDME/2011/CVR/Honduras%20-%20Informe%20CVR %20- %20RECOMENDACIONES.pdf.
CONADEH, Reporteros de Investigación. N. d. “Su vehículo, el lugar más peligroso para periodistas.” https://reporterosdeinvestigacion.com/2020/06/02/su-vehiculo-y-su-casa-los-lugares-mas-mortales-para-periodistas-hondurenos/.
Coppedge, Michael, Amanda B. Edgell, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Staffan I. Lindberg. (2022). Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press.
Department of Justice, US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York. (2017). “Former Honduran Cabinet Official Pleads Guilty in Manhattan Federal Court To Money Laundering Charge”. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-honduran-cabinet-official-pleads-guilty-manhattan-federal-court-money-laundering.
Department of Justice, US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York. (2020). “Former Chief of Honduran National Police Charged with Drug Trafficking and Weapons Offenses”. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-chief-honduran-national-police-charged-drug-trafficking-and-weapons-offenses.
Department of Justice, US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York. (2021a). “Honduran National Convicted on Drug Trafficking and Weapons Charges”. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/honduran-national-convicted-drug-trafficking-and-weapons-charges.
Department of Justice, US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York. (2021b). “Former Honduran Congressman Tony Hernández Sentenced to Life in Prison and Ordered to Forfeit $138.5 Million for Distributing 185 Tons of Cocaine and Related Firearms and False Statements Offenses”. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-honduran-congressman-tony-hern-ndez-sentenced-life-prison-and-ordered-forfeit.
Diaz, Diana. (2019). “‘Another Teacher Has Left’: Schools, Often Safe Havens for Teenagers and Teachers, Are under Threat in Honduras”. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/stories/2019/7/5d28db684/another-teacher-has-left.html.
Drug Enforcement Administration. (2018). “DEA Announces Arrest of Former Honduran Congressman and Brother of Current President of Honduras for Drug Trafficking and Weapons Charges”. https://www.dea.gov/press-releases/2018/11/26/dea-announces-arrest-former-honduran-congressman-and-brother-current.
Evans, Claire Q. (2020). “Spotlight on Corruption Victimization in Latin America and the Caribbean”. LAPOP Spotlight Series. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/spotlights/Spotlight-Evans-CORVIC-eng_final.pdf.
Fernandez, Kenneth E. and Michele Kuenzi. (2010). “Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America”. Political Studies, 58(3): 450-71.
Frank, Dana. (2013). “A High-Stakes Election in Honduras”. The Nation.
Global Witness. (2017). “Honduras: The Deadliest Country in the World for Environmental Activism”. November 25, 2013. https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-activists/honduras-deadliest-country-world-environmental-activism/.
InSight Crime. n. d. “Honduras Profile”. Accessed Aug. 1, 2021. hhttps://insightcrime.org/honduras-organized-crime-news/honduras/.
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. (2009). “Preliminary Observations on the IACHR Visit to Honduras”. http://www.cidh.org/Comunicados/English/2009/60-09eng.Preliminary.Observations.htm.
Levitsky, Steven and Norman Ziblatt. (2018). How Democracies Die. Viking.
Lürhmann, A. and Staffan Lindberg. (2019). “A Third Wave of Autocratization is Here: What is New About It?”, Democratization, 26(7): 1095-1113.
Lupu, Noam, and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister. (2021). “The Pulse of Democracy in 2021”. In Lupu, Noam, Mariana Rodríguez, and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister (Eds.). Pulse of Democracy. LAPOP.
Montalvo, Daniel. (2019). “Resultados preliminares 2019: Barómetro de las Américas en Honduras”. LAPOP. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/honduras/AB2018-19_Honduras_RRR_W_09.25.19.pdf.
Palmer, Emily, and Kirk Semple. (2021). “A Damning Portrait of Presidential Corruption, But Hondurans Sound Resigned”. New York Times, March 23, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/23/world/americas/honduras-juan-orlando-hernandez-drug-trial.html.
Panting, César Andrés. (2014). “Reducir la delincuencia, el mayor logro del presidente de Honduras”. La Prensa, May 27, 2014. https://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/reducir-la-delincuencia-el-mayor-logro-del-presidente-de-honduras-HBLP713224.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2004). “Democratic Legitimacy and Public Insecurity: Crime and Democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala”. Political Science Quarterly, 118(4): 627–44.
Pérez, Orlando J. (2011). “Crime, Insecurity and Erosion of Democratic Values in Latin America”. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 1(1): 61-86.
Pérez, Orlando J., Georgina Pizzolitto y Luke Plutowski. (Eds.) (2021). Cultura política de la democracia en Honduras y en las Américas 2021: Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. LAPOP. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/honduras/AB2021HND-Country-Report-Spanish-Final-220615.pdf.
Ruhl, Mark. (2018). “Honduras: Democracy in Peril”. In Harvey F. Kline, Christine J. Wade, and Howard Wiarda (Eds.). Latin American Politics and Development. Westview Press.
Seligson, Mitchell A. (2003). “Public Support for Due Process Rights: The Case of Guatemala”. Journal of the Southwest, 45(4): 557–94.
TransGender Europe e. V. (2015). “Trans Murder Monitoring 2015”. May 8, 2015. https://tgeu.org/tmm-idahot-update-2015/.
Wade, Christine J. (2015). “By Design Honduras’ Anti-Graft Mission Won’t Actually Fight Corruption”. World Politics Review, November 4, 2015. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/17124/by-design-honduras-anti-graft-mission-won-t-actually-fight-corruption.
Wade, Christine J. (2017). “Is a Resolution to Honduras’ Turbulent Elections Anywhere in Sight?” World Politics Review, December 8, 2017. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23787/is-a-resolution-to-honduras-turbulent-elections-anywhere-in-sight.
Welsh, Ericka. (2017). “The Path of Most Resistance: Resisting Gang Recruitment as a Political Opinion in Central America’s Join-or-Die Gang Culture”. Pepperdine Law Review, 44: 1083. https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/plr/vol44/iss5/4.
Pérez, O. J., & Wade, C. J. (2023). Militarism, Authoritarianism and Corruption: Post-Coup Honduras and the Decline of Democracy. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 147–177. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31391
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