Peru: Deep Political Dissatisfaction Weakens Support for Democracy

Abstract

This paper analyzes support for democratic attitudes in Peru using data from the AmericasBarometer. It finds that democratic attitudes in Peru are consistently low, when compared to regional means. It also shows that the proportion of respondents holding consistent democratic values has decreased in the last decade or so. We attribute this decline to the growing dissatisfaction with the performance of the political system, as measured by the Satisfaction with Democracy item. We argue that this discontent expresses a dual failure of political representation: presidents do not follow the mandate they were given, and voters have no opportunity to castigate them and their parties at election time. In addition, the decision of the fujimorista party in Congress in 2016 to resort to extraordinary measures in confronting the executive branch opened a period of naked power political still affecting Peru. The failed presidency of Pedro Castillo, who disappointed even his own supporters, and this failed attempt to shut down Congress have deepened the crisis of representation.
  • Referencias
  • Cómo citar
  • Del mismo autor
  • Métricas
Asencio, R. H., et al. (2021). El profe: cómo Pedro Castillo se convirtió en presidente del Perú y qué pasará a continuación. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.

Barrenechea, R., & Sosa Villagarcía, P. (2014). Perú 2013: la paradoja de la estabilidad. Revista de Ciencia Política 34(1), pp. 267-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2014000100013

Barrenechea, R., & Vergara, A. (2023). 2023. Peru: The Danger of Powerless Democracy. Journal of Democracy 34(2), 77-89. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0015

Bermeo, N. (2016). On Democratic Backsliding. Journal of Democracy 27(1), 5-19. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0012

Briceño, F. (2023, March 21). Perú: 67 muertos protestas, fallece herido con 36 perdigones. https://apnews.com/article/noticias-988f3c37f4676adb25616ce3ee98f4a3

Cameron, M. (2006). Endogenous Regime Breakdown: The Vladivideo and the Fall of Peru’s Fujimori. In J. F. Carrión (ed.), The Fujimori Legacy: The Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism in Peru, (pp. 268-293). Pennsylvania State University Press. https://doi.org/10.5325/j.ctt7v107.17

Canache, D., Mondak, J. & Seligson, M. (2001) Meaning and Measurement in Cross-National Research on Satisfaction with Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65(4), pp. 506–528. https://doi.org/10.1086/323576

Canal N. (2021). Publican ley que regula la aplicación de la cuestión de confianza. https://canaln.pe/actualidad/cuestion-confianza-publican-ley-aprobada-insistencia-congreso-n440161

Carrión, J. F. (2022a). A Dynamic Theory of Populism in Power: The Andes in Comparative Perspective. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197572290.001.0001

Carrión, J. F. (2022b). Peru: Will Democracy Outlast Political Dysfunction? In H. Kline & C. J. Wade (eds.), Latin American Politics and Development, (10th ed., pp. 201-222). Routledge.

Carrión, J. F. (2023, February 14). Dysfunctional System Struggles to Solve Peru’s Crisis. Canning House. https://www.canninghouse.org/canning-insights/dysfunctional-system-struggles-to-solve-perus-crisis

Carrión, J. F. (Ed.) (2006). The Fujimori Legacy: The Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism in Peru. Pennsylvania State University Press. https://doi.org/10.5325/j.ctt7v107

Carrión, J. F., & Balasco, L. M. (2016). The Fearful Citizen: Crime and Support for Democracy in Latin America. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (6), pp. 13-50. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22317

Carrión, J. F., & Palmer, D. S. (2014). Peru in the Twenty-First Century: Confronting the Past, Charting the Future. In H. J. Wiarda & H. F. Kline (eds.), Latin American Politics and Development, (Eight ed., pp. 181-205). Westview Press.

Carrión, J. F., Zárate, P., Boidi, F. & Zechmeister, E. J. (2020). Cultura política de la democracia en Perú y en las Américas, 2018/19: Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos-Vanderbilt University. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/peru/AB2018-19-Peru-Country-Report-Final-W-200811.pdf

Coca Pimentel, V. (2022, December 8). Los polémicos gabinetes de Pedro Castillo: nombró a 78 ministros en 495 días de gobierno. Infobae. https://www.infobae.com/america/peru/2022/12/08/los-polemicos-gabinetes-de-pedro-castillo-nombro-a-78-ministros-en-495-dias-de-gobierno/

Conaghan, C. M. (2005). Fujimori’s Peru: Deception in the Public Sphere. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.

Crabtree, J. (2010). Democracy without parties? Some lessons from Peru. Journal of Latin American Studies, 42(2), pp. 357-382. doi:10.1017/S0022216X10000477

Dahl, R. (1971). Polyarchy. Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press.

Daoust, J-F., & Nadeau, R. (2021). Context Matters: Economics, Politics, and Satisfaction with Democracy. Electoral Studies (74). 102133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102133

Dargent, E. (2011). Lo que nos deja la elección (y lo que se viene). In C. Meléndez (ed), Post-candidatos, (pp. 339-358). Mitin.

Dargent, E., & Muñoz, P. (2012). Perú 2011: Continuidades y cambios en la política sin partidos. Revista de Ciencia Política 32(1), pp. 245-268. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2012000100013

El Comercio. (2016. July 28). Keiko: ‘Convertiremos propuestas del plan de gobierno en leyes’ https://elcomercio.pe/politica/actualidad/keiko-convertiremos-propuestas-plan-gobierno-leyes-397999-noticia/?ref=ecr

Ferrín, M. (2016). An Empirical Assessment of Satisfaction with Democracy. In M. Ferrín & H. Kriesi (eds.), How Europeans View and Evaluate Democracy, (pp. 283-306). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198766902.003.0013

Foa, R. S., Klassen, A., Slade, M., Rand, A., & Collins, R. (2020). The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020. Centre for the Future of Democracy. https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/DemocracyReport2020.pdf

Freedom House. (2021). Freedom in the World. Peru. https://freedomhouse.org/country/peru/freedom-world/2021.

Freedom House. (2022). Freedom in the World. Peru. https://freedomhouse.org/country/peru/freedom-world/2022.

Freedom House. (2023). Freedom in the World 2023. Peru. https://freedomhouse.org/country/peru/freedom-world/2023

Gestión. (2022, December 7). Golpe de Estado: Pedro Castillo anuncia cierre del Congreso. https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/pedro-castillo-anuncia-que-disuelve-temporalmente-el-congreso-para-un-gobierno-de-emergencia-rmmn-noticia/

Howell, P., & Justman, F. (2013). Nail-Biters and No-Contests: The Effect of Electoral Margins on Satisfaction with Democracy in Winners and Losers. Electoral Studies (32), pp. 334-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.02.004

Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2020). IEP Informe de Opinión—Noviembre 2020. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Informe-Especial-IEP-OP-Noviembre-2020-v2.pdf.

Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2022a). Informe de Opinión–Noviembre 2022. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Informe-IEP-OP-Noviembre-2022-completo.pdf

Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2022b). Informe de Opinión–Diciembre 2022. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Informe-IEP-OP-Diciembre-2022-completo-1.pdf

Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2023a). Informe de Opinión–Enero. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Informe-IEP-OP-Enero-I-2023.-Informe-completo-version-final.pdf

Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2023b). Informe de Opinión–Febrero. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Informe-IEP-OP-Febrero-2023.-Informe-completo.pdf

Kenney, Charles. (2004). Fujimori’s Coup and the Breakdown of Democracy in Latin America. Notre Dame University Press.

Kim, M. (2009). Cross-National Analysis of Satisfaction with Democracy and Ideologica Congruence. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 19(1), pp. 49-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457280802568402

Levitsky, S. (2011). Peru’s 2011 Elections: A Surprising Left Turn. Journal of Democracy 22(4), pp. 84-94. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0064

Levitsky, S., & Cameron, M. (2003). Democracy Without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society 45(3), pp. 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2003.tb00248.x

Levitsky, S., & Zavaleta, M. (2016). Why No Party-Building in Peru? In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Domínguez (eds.), Challenges of Party Building in Latin America, (pp. 412-439). Cambridge University Press. https://doi:10.1017/CBO9781316550564.015

Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How Democracies Die. Crown.

Levitt, B. S. (2012). Power in the Balance. Presidents, Parties, and Legislatures in Peru and Beyond. University of Notre Dame Press.

Linde, J. & Ekman, J. (2003). Satisfaction with Democracy: A Note on a Frequently Used Indicator in Comparative Politics. European Journal of Political Research, 42(3), pp. 391-408. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00089.

Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. (2019). A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It? Democratization 26(7), pp. 1095-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029

Mainwaring, S. (2006). The Crisis of Representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy 17(3), pp. 13-27. DOI:10.1353/jod.2006.0048

Manin, B., Przeworski, A., & Stokes, S. (1999). Elections and Representation. In A. Przeworski, S. Stokes, & B. Manin (eds.), Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, (pp. 29-54. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139175104

McClintock, C. (2006). A ‘Left Turn’ in Latin America: An Unlikely Comeback in Peru. Journal of Democracy 17(4), pp. 95-109. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2006.0066

McNulty, S. (2017). Perú 2016: Continuity and Change in an Electoral Year. Revista de Ciencia Política 37(2), pp. 563-587. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2017000200563

Meléndez, C., & Sosa Villagarcía, P. (2013). Perú 2012: ¿atrapados por la historia? Revista de Ciencia Política 33(1), pp. 325-350. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2013000100016

Muñoz, P., & Guibert, Y. (2016). Perú: el fin del optimismo. Revista de Ciencia Política 36(1), pp. 313-338. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2016000100014

Perú–Ministerio de Desarrollo e Inclusión Social (MIDIS). (2012). Una política para el desarrollo y la inclusión social en el Perú. https://www.mesadeconcertacion.org.pe/sites/default/files/archivos/2015/documentos/11/midis_politicas_desarrollo.pdf

Pitkin, H. F. (1967). The Concept of Representation. University of California Press.

Ramos, José Luis. (2022). La democracia no es un derecho a elegir, sino a decidir. A propósito de la crisis de representatividad. In E. Ballón (ed.), Perú Hoy: tiempos de incertidumbre, (pp. 55-74). Desco–Centro de Estudios y Promoción del Desarrollo.

Ridge, H. (2022). Enemy Mine: Negative Partisanship and Satisfaction with Democracy. Political Behavior (44), pp. 1271-1295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09658-7

Schmidt, G. (2002). The 2001 Presidential and Congressional Elections in Peru. Electoral Studies (22), pp. 344-351. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00053-7

Singh, S. & Mayne, Q. (2023) Satisfaction with Democracy: A Review of a Major Public Opinion Indicator. Public Opinion Quarterly, 87(1), pp. 187–218. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad003

Stokes, S. (2001). Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612978

Tanaka, M. (2005). Democracia sin partidos. Perú 2000-2005: los problemas de representación y las propuestas de reforma política. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.

Tanaka, M., Barrenechea, R., & Vera, S. (2011). Cambios y continuidades en las elecciones presidenciales de 2011. Revista Argumentos 5(2), pp. 1-8.

Tribunal Constitucional del Perú. (2023). Pleno. Sentencia 307/2023. https://tc.gob.pe/jurisprudencia/2023/00004-2022-CC.pdf

Vergara, A. (2007). Ni Amnésicos ni irracionales. Las elecciones peruanas de 2006 en perspectiva histórica. Solar.

Vergara, A., & Encinas, D. (2016). Continuity by Surprise. Explaining Institutional Stability in Contemporary Peru. Latin American Research Review 51(1), pp. 159-180. https://doi.org/10.1353/lar.2016.0006

Vergara, A., & Watanabe, A. (2016). Peru Since Fujimori. Journal of Democracy 27(3), pp. 148-157. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0054

Vergara, A., & Watanabe, A. (2019). Presidents without Roots. Understanding the Peruvian Paradox. Latin American Perspectives 46(5), pp. 25-43. https://doi.org/10.1177/0094582X19854097

Wagner, A., Schneider, F., & Hall, M. (2009). The Quality of Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy in Western Europe-A Panel Analysis. European Journal of Political Economy 25(1), pp. 30-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.08.001

Zacharias, D., Sulmont, D., & Garibotti, G. (2015). Elecciones presidenciales Perú 2011: Análisis comparativo de la asociación entre los resultados de la primera y la segunda vuelta a nivel mesa de sufragio. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (5), pp. 173-197. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22310

Zárate, P. (2020, November 18). Renovar la política, en serio. La República. https://iep.org.pe/noticias/columna-renovar-la-politica-en-serio-por-patricia-zarate/

Zavaleta, M. (2014). Coaliciones de independientes. Las reglas no escritas de la política electoral. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.
Carrión, J., & Zárate, P. (2023). Peru: Deep Political Dissatisfaction Weakens Support for Democracy. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 12(2), 25–54. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31378

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Patricia Zárate

,
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos
Investigador principal y directora del Grupo de Opinion Publica del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos
+