Peru: Deep Political Dissatisfaction Weakens Support for Democracy
Abstract This paper analyzes support for democratic attitudes in Peru using data from the AmericasBarometer. It finds that democratic attitudes in Peru are consistently low, when compared to regional means. It also shows that the proportion of respondents holding consistent democratic values has decreased in the last decade or so. We attribute this decline to the growing dissatisfaction with the performance of the political system, as measured by the Satisfaction with Democracy item. We argue that this discontent expresses a dual failure of political representation: presidents do not follow the mandate they were given, and voters have no opportunity to castigate them and their parties at election time. In addition, the decision of the fujimorista party in Congress in 2016 to resort to extraordinary measures in confronting the executive branch opened a period of naked power political still affecting Peru. The failed presidency of Pedro Castillo, who disappointed even his own supporters, and this failed attempt to shut down Congress have deepened the crisis of representation.
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Dargent, E., & Muñoz, P. (2012). Perú 2011: Continuidades y cambios en la política sin partidos. Revista de Ciencia Política 32(1), pp. 245-268. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2012000100013
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Canache, D., Mondak, J. & Seligson, M. (2001) Meaning and Measurement in Cross-National Research on Satisfaction with Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65(4), pp. 506–528. https://doi.org/10.1086/323576
Canal N. (2021). Publican ley que regula la aplicación de la cuestión de confianza. https://canaln.pe/actualidad/cuestion-confianza-publican-ley-aprobada-insistencia-congreso-n440161
Carrión, J. F. (2022a). A Dynamic Theory of Populism in Power: The Andes in Comparative Perspective. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197572290.001.0001
Carrión, J. F. (2022b). Peru: Will Democracy Outlast Political Dysfunction? In H. Kline & C. J. Wade (eds.), Latin American Politics and Development, (10th ed., pp. 201-222). Routledge.
Carrión, J. F. (2023, February 14). Dysfunctional System Struggles to Solve Peru’s Crisis. Canning House. https://www.canninghouse.org/canning-insights/dysfunctional-system-struggles-to-solve-perus-crisis
Carrión, J. F. (Ed.) (2006). The Fujimori Legacy: The Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism in Peru. Pennsylvania State University Press. https://doi.org/10.5325/j.ctt7v107
Carrión, J. F., & Balasco, L. M. (2016). The Fearful Citizen: Crime and Support for Democracy in Latin America. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (6), pp. 13-50. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22317
Carrión, J. F., & Palmer, D. S. (2014). Peru in the Twenty-First Century: Confronting the Past, Charting the Future. In H. J. Wiarda & H. F. Kline (eds.), Latin American Politics and Development, (Eight ed., pp. 181-205). Westview Press.
Carrión, J. F., Zárate, P., Boidi, F. & Zechmeister, E. J. (2020). Cultura política de la democracia en Perú y en las Américas, 2018/19: Tomándole el pulso a la democracia. Instituto de Estudios Peruanos-Vanderbilt University. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/peru/AB2018-19-Peru-Country-Report-Final-W-200811.pdf
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Conaghan, C. M. (2005). Fujimori’s Peru: Deception in the Public Sphere. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Crabtree, J. (2010). Democracy without parties? Some lessons from Peru. Journal of Latin American Studies, 42(2), pp. 357-382. doi:10.1017/S0022216X10000477
Dahl, R. (1971). Polyarchy. Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press.
Daoust, J-F., & Nadeau, R. (2021). Context Matters: Economics, Politics, and Satisfaction with Democracy. Electoral Studies (74). 102133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102133
Dargent, E. (2011). Lo que nos deja la elección (y lo que se viene). In C. Meléndez (ed), Post-candidatos, (pp. 339-358). Mitin.
Dargent, E., & Muñoz, P. (2012). Perú 2011: Continuidades y cambios en la política sin partidos. Revista de Ciencia Política 32(1), pp. 245-268. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2012000100013
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Ferrín, M. (2016). An Empirical Assessment of Satisfaction with Democracy. In M. Ferrín & H. Kriesi (eds.), How Europeans View and Evaluate Democracy, (pp. 283-306). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198766902.003.0013
Foa, R. S., Klassen, A., Slade, M., Rand, A., & Collins, R. (2020). The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020. Centre for the Future of Democracy. https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/DemocracyReport2020.pdf
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Freedom House. (2022). Freedom in the World. Peru. https://freedomhouse.org/country/peru/freedom-world/2022.
Freedom House. (2023). Freedom in the World 2023. Peru. https://freedomhouse.org/country/peru/freedom-world/2023
Gestión. (2022, December 7). Golpe de Estado: Pedro Castillo anuncia cierre del Congreso. https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/pedro-castillo-anuncia-que-disuelve-temporalmente-el-congreso-para-un-gobierno-de-emergencia-rmmn-noticia/
Howell, P., & Justman, F. (2013). Nail-Biters and No-Contests: The Effect of Electoral Margins on Satisfaction with Democracy in Winners and Losers. Electoral Studies (32), pp. 334-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.02.004
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2020). IEP Informe de Opinión—Noviembre 2020. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Informe-Especial-IEP-OP-Noviembre-2020-v2.pdf.
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Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. (2023a). Informe de Opinión–Enero. https://iep.org.pe/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Informe-IEP-OP-Enero-I-2023.-Informe-completo-version-final.pdf
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Kenney, Charles. (2004). Fujimori’s Coup and the Breakdown of Democracy in Latin America. Notre Dame University Press.
Kim, M. (2009). Cross-National Analysis of Satisfaction with Democracy and Ideologica Congruence. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 19(1), pp. 49-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457280802568402
Levitsky, S. (2011). Peru’s 2011 Elections: A Surprising Left Turn. Journal of Democracy 22(4), pp. 84-94. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0064
Levitsky, S., & Cameron, M. (2003). Democracy Without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru. Latin American Politics and Society 45(3), pp. 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2003.tb00248.x
Levitsky, S., & Zavaleta, M. (2016). Why No Party-Building in Peru? In S. Levitsky, J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, & J. I. Domínguez (eds.), Challenges of Party Building in Latin America, (pp. 412-439). Cambridge University Press. https://doi:10.1017/CBO9781316550564.015
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How Democracies Die. Crown.
Levitt, B. S. (2012). Power in the Balance. Presidents, Parties, and Legislatures in Peru and Beyond. University of Notre Dame Press.
Linde, J. & Ekman, J. (2003). Satisfaction with Democracy: A Note on a Frequently Used Indicator in Comparative Politics. European Journal of Political Research, 42(3), pp. 391-408. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00089.
Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. (2019). A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It? Democratization 26(7), pp. 1095-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
Mainwaring, S. (2006). The Crisis of Representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy 17(3), pp. 13-27. DOI:10.1353/jod.2006.0048
Manin, B., Przeworski, A., & Stokes, S. (1999). Elections and Representation. In A. Przeworski, S. Stokes, & B. Manin (eds.), Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, (pp. 29-54. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139175104
McClintock, C. (2006). A ‘Left Turn’ in Latin America: An Unlikely Comeback in Peru. Journal of Democracy 17(4), pp. 95-109. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2006.0066
McNulty, S. (2017). Perú 2016: Continuity and Change in an Electoral Year. Revista de Ciencia Política 37(2), pp. 563-587. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2017000200563
Meléndez, C., & Sosa Villagarcía, P. (2013). Perú 2012: ¿atrapados por la historia? Revista de Ciencia Política 33(1), pp. 325-350. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2013000100016
Muñoz, P., & Guibert, Y. (2016). Perú: el fin del optimismo. Revista de Ciencia Política 36(1), pp. 313-338. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2016000100014
Perú–Ministerio de Desarrollo e Inclusión Social (MIDIS). (2012). Una política para el desarrollo y la inclusión social en el Perú. https://www.mesadeconcertacion.org.pe/sites/default/files/archivos/2015/documentos/11/midis_politicas_desarrollo.pdf
Pitkin, H. F. (1967). The Concept of Representation. University of California Press.
Ramos, José Luis. (2022). La democracia no es un derecho a elegir, sino a decidir. A propósito de la crisis de representatividad. In E. Ballón (ed.), Perú Hoy: tiempos de incertidumbre, (pp. 55-74). Desco–Centro de Estudios y Promoción del Desarrollo.
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