Clube da luta: competição eleitoral na disputa para os governos estaduais brasileiros (2006-2018)
Resumo Qual o efeito da receita nos votos dos desafiantes? A literatura assume que os desafiantes são mais eficientes em transformar receita em votos (Jacobson, 1978). Nosso objetivo é analisar empiricamente essa relação, defendendo a hipótese de que candidatos desafiantes são mais eficientes em transformar receita em votos. Para testar nossa hipótese analisaremos os dados para governadores de 2006, 2010, 2014 e 2018. Utilizamos Modelo de Regressão Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) para estimar o efeito da receita sobre o voto. Nosso foco está direcionado a candidatos aos governos estaduais brasileiros, cujos resultados indicam que: 1) houve uma queda significativa nos gastos de campanha após a lei que proíbe financiamento privado; 2) O custo médio do voto em 2018 é de R$ 8, 84; e 3) os desafiantes são mais eficientes ao transformar receita em votos.
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Abramowitza, A. (1988). Explaining Senate election outcomes. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 82, 385-403. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1957392
Ansolabehere, S., & Gerber A. (1994). The mismeasure of campaign spending: evidence from the 1990 U.S. House elections. J. Polit., 56,1106-1118. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2132077
Avelino, G., Biderman, C., & Barone, L. S. (2011). "Articulações intrapartidárias e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(2), 319-347. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582011000200004
Bardwell, K. (2003). Not all money is equal: the differential effect of spending by incumbents and challengers in gubernatorial primaries. State Polit. Policy Q., 3, 294-308. - https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000300300304
Bartels, LM. (1991). Instrumental and "quasi-instrumental" variables. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 35, 777-800. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111566
Bonneau, C. W. (2007). The effects of campaign spending in state supreme court elections. Polit. Res. Q., 60, 489-99. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907305680
Bonneau, C. W., & Cann D. M. (2011). Campaign spending, diminishing marginal returns, and campaign finance restrictions in judicial elections. J. Polit., 73, 1267-1280. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000934
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2006). O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política, 1982-2002. Ed. Humanitas.
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2008). Organizações partidárias e seleção de candidatos no estado de São Paulo. Opinião Pública, 14(2), 454-485. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762008000200008
Dawson, P. A., & James E. Z. (1976). Political Finance and Participation in Congressual Elections. American Academy of Political and Social Science Annals, 425, 59-73. - https://doi.org/10.1177/000271627642500105
Donnay, P. B., & Ramsden, G. P. (1995). Public financing of legislative election in Minnesota. Legis. Stud. Q., 30, 351-364. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440225
Erikson, R. S., & Palfrey T. (1998). Campaign spending and incumbency: an alternative simultaneous equation approach. J. Polit., 60, 355-373. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2647913
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. (2009). O Elo corporativo? Grupos de Interesse, financiamento de campanha e regulação eleitoral. Dissertação de mestrado, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil.
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. et al. (2015). Financiamento de Campanha: nível de regulamentação em perspectiva comparada. E-Legis, 7, 36-50.
Financiamento corporativo de campanhas no Brasil (2014). 40 Encontro Anual da Anpocs. Caxambu: Minas Gerais.
Gierzynski, A., & Breaux, D. A. (1996). Legislative elections and the importance of money. Legis. Stud. Q., 21, 337-357. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440248
Giles, M. W., & Pritchard, A. (1985). Campaign expenditures and legislative election in Florida. Legis. Stud. Q., 10,71-88. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440116
Goidel, R. K., & Gross D. A. (1994). A systems approach to campaign finance in U.S. House elections. Am. Polit. Q., 22,125-153. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9402200201
Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2000). New evidence for new arguments: money and advertising in 1996 Senate elections. J. Polit., 62, 1087-1108. - https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00047
Green, D. P., & Krasno, JS. (1990). Rebuttal to Jacobson's "New evidence for old arguments." Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 363-372. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111451
Green, D. P., & Krasno, J. S. (1988). Salvation for the spendthrift incumbent: reestimating the effects of campaign spending in House elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 32, 884-907. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111193
Guimarães, F., Nascimento, W, Paranhos, R, Silva Júnior, J. A, & Silva, D. (2019). Meu dinheiro, minhas regras: tipos de gastos de campanha para prefeito no Brasil (2008-2016). RIEM, n° 19, año IX, enero-julio, 29-57.
Heiler, J. G., Viana, J. P. S., & Santos, R. D. (2016). O custo da política subnacional: a forma como o dinheiro é gasto importa? Relação entre receita, despesas e sucesso eleitoral. Opinião Pública, 22(1). - https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0191201622156
Holbrook, T., & Von Dunk, E. (1993). Electoral Competition in American States. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 955-962. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2938827
Holbrook, T., & Weinschenk, A. C. (2014). Campaigns, mobilization, and turnout in mayoral elections. Polit. Res. Q., 67, 42-55. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912913494018
Jacobson, G. C. (1978). The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1978.) The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1980). Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (2006a). Measuring campaign spending effects in U.S. House elections. See Brady & Johnston, 199-220.
Jacobson, G. C. (2006b). Campaign spending effects in U.S. Senate elections: evidence from the National Annenberg Election Survey. Elect. Stud., 25, 195-226. - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.05.005
Jacobson, G. C. (2011). A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. Nova York: Longman.
Jacobson, G. C. (2013). The Politics of Congressional Elections. Nova York: Pearson.
Jacobson, G. C. (2014). It's nothing personal: the decline of the incumbency advantage in congressional elections. Annu. Meet. Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., Chicago.
Kahn, K. F., & Kenney, P. J. (1999). The Spectacle of U.S. Senate Campaigns. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
Kenney, C., & MCburnett, M. (1994). An individual-level, multi-equation model of expenditure effects in contested House elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 88, 699-707. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2944804
King, G. (1995). Replication, Replication. PS: Political Science and Politics, 28, 443-499. Recuperado de [http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/replication.pdf]. - https://doi.org/10.2307/420301
Krebs, T. B. (1998). The determinants of candidates' vote share and the advantages of incumbency in city council elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 42, 921-35. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2991735
Lemos, L. B., Marcelino, D., & Pederiva, J. H. (2010). Por que dinheiro importa: a dinâmica das contribuições eleitorais para o Congresso Nacional em 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública, 16,(2,), 366-393. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000200004
Lott, W. F., & Warner III, P. D. (1974). The Relative Importance of Campaign Expenditures: An Application of Production Theory. Quality and Quantity, 8, 99-105. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00205867
Mancuso, W. P., & Speck, B. W. (2015). Financiamento Empresarial na Eleição Para Deputado Federal (2002 - 2010): Determinantes e Consequências. Teoria & Sociedade, Minas Gerais, 23.2, 103-125.
Mancuso, W. P. (2015). Investimento Eleitoral no Brasil balanço da literatura (2001-2012) e agenda de pesquisa. Sociologia Política, 23(54), 155-183. - https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-987315235409
Nicolau. (2006). O Sistema Eleitoral de Lista Aberta no Brasil. DADOS - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(4), 689-720. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582006000400002
Palda, F., & Palda, K. S. (1998). The Impact of Campaign Expenditures on Political Competition in the Frenc Lesgislative Elections of 1993. Public Choice, 94, 157-174. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004942118179
Palda, K. S. (1973). Does Adversating INfluence Votes? An Aanalysis of the 1966 and 1970 Quebec Elections. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 6, 638-55. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900040488
Palda, K. S. (1975). The Effect of Expenditure on Political Sucess. Jornal of Law and Economics, 18, 745-771. - https://doi.org/10.1086/466837
Palda, K. S. (1994). Desirability and Effects of Campaign Spending Limits. Crime, Law, and Social Change, 21(1), 295-317. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01307797
Paranhos, R., Figueiredo Filho, D. B., & Santos, D. S. (2016). Quem paga a conta? Página web. Grupo de pesquisa Cidadania & políticas públicas. Recuperado de [http://www.gcpp.com.br/quem-paga-a-conta/].
Poiré, A. (2006). From the Public INterest to the Poisoned Subsidy: Public funding of political parties in democratizing countries. In WWICS Post-Electoral Fellow in the Study of Democracy Competition. Santiago, Chile: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Samuels, D. J. (2001). When Does Every Penny Count?: Intra-party Competition and Campaign fiance in Brazil. Parti Politics, 7(1), 89-102. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068801007001005
Santos, R. D. (2014). Partidos na arena eleitoral: o financiamento das listas de candidatos a deputado federal no Rio de Janeiro em 2010. Paraná Eleitoral: revista brasileira de direito eleitoral e ciência política, 3(1).
Silberman, J. (1976). A Comment on the Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 25, 69-73. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01726334
Silva, G. P. (2013). Uma avaliação empírica da competição eleitoral na Câmara Federal no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 19(2), 403-429. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762013000200007
Welch, W. P. (1974). The Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 20, 83-97. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01718179
Welch, W. P. (1976). The Effectiviness of Expenditures in State Legislative Races. American Politics Quarterly, 4, 333-356. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X7600400303
Ansolabehere, S., & Gerber A. (1994). The mismeasure of campaign spending: evidence from the 1990 U.S. House elections. J. Polit., 56,1106-1118. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2132077
Avelino, G., Biderman, C., & Barone, L. S. (2011). "Articulações intrapartidárias e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(2), 319-347. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582011000200004
Bardwell, K. (2003). Not all money is equal: the differential effect of spending by incumbents and challengers in gubernatorial primaries. State Polit. Policy Q., 3, 294-308. - https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000300300304
Bartels, LM. (1991). Instrumental and "quasi-instrumental" variables. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 35, 777-800. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111566
Bonneau, C. W. (2007). The effects of campaign spending in state supreme court elections. Polit. Res. Q., 60, 489-99. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907305680
Bonneau, C. W., & Cann D. M. (2011). Campaign spending, diminishing marginal returns, and campaign finance restrictions in judicial elections. J. Polit., 73, 1267-1280. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000934
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2006). O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política, 1982-2002. Ed. Humanitas.
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2008). Organizações partidárias e seleção de candidatos no estado de São Paulo. Opinião Pública, 14(2), 454-485. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762008000200008
Dawson, P. A., & James E. Z. (1976). Political Finance and Participation in Congressual Elections. American Academy of Political and Social Science Annals, 425, 59-73. - https://doi.org/10.1177/000271627642500105
Donnay, P. B., & Ramsden, G. P. (1995). Public financing of legislative election in Minnesota. Legis. Stud. Q., 30, 351-364. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440225
Erikson, R. S., & Palfrey T. (1998). Campaign spending and incumbency: an alternative simultaneous equation approach. J. Polit., 60, 355-373. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2647913
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. (2009). O Elo corporativo? Grupos de Interesse, financiamento de campanha e regulação eleitoral. Dissertação de mestrado, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil.
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. et al. (2015). Financiamento de Campanha: nível de regulamentação em perspectiva comparada. E-Legis, 7, 36-50.
Financiamento corporativo de campanhas no Brasil (2014). 40 Encontro Anual da Anpocs. Caxambu: Minas Gerais.
Gierzynski, A., & Breaux, D. A. (1996). Legislative elections and the importance of money. Legis. Stud. Q., 21, 337-357. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440248
Giles, M. W., & Pritchard, A. (1985). Campaign expenditures and legislative election in Florida. Legis. Stud. Q., 10,71-88. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440116
Goidel, R. K., & Gross D. A. (1994). A systems approach to campaign finance in U.S. House elections. Am. Polit. Q., 22,125-153. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9402200201
Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2000). New evidence for new arguments: money and advertising in 1996 Senate elections. J. Polit., 62, 1087-1108. - https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00047
Green, D. P., & Krasno, JS. (1990). Rebuttal to Jacobson's "New evidence for old arguments." Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 363-372. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111451
Green, D. P., & Krasno, J. S. (1988). Salvation for the spendthrift incumbent: reestimating the effects of campaign spending in House elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 32, 884-907. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111193
Guimarães, F., Nascimento, W, Paranhos, R, Silva Júnior, J. A, & Silva, D. (2019). Meu dinheiro, minhas regras: tipos de gastos de campanha para prefeito no Brasil (2008-2016). RIEM, n° 19, año IX, enero-julio, 29-57.
Heiler, J. G., Viana, J. P. S., & Santos, R. D. (2016). O custo da política subnacional: a forma como o dinheiro é gasto importa? Relação entre receita, despesas e sucesso eleitoral. Opinião Pública, 22(1). - https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0191201622156
Holbrook, T., & Von Dunk, E. (1993). Electoral Competition in American States. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 955-962. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2938827
Holbrook, T., & Weinschenk, A. C. (2014). Campaigns, mobilization, and turnout in mayoral elections. Polit. Res. Q., 67, 42-55. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912913494018
Jacobson, G. C. (1978). The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1978.) The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1980). Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (2006a). Measuring campaign spending effects in U.S. House elections. See Brady & Johnston, 199-220.
Jacobson, G. C. (2006b). Campaign spending effects in U.S. Senate elections: evidence from the National Annenberg Election Survey. Elect. Stud., 25, 195-226. - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.05.005
Jacobson, G. C. (2011). A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. Nova York: Longman.
Jacobson, G. C. (2013). The Politics of Congressional Elections. Nova York: Pearson.
Jacobson, G. C. (2014). It's nothing personal: the decline of the incumbency advantage in congressional elections. Annu. Meet. Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., Chicago.
Kahn, K. F., & Kenney, P. J. (1999). The Spectacle of U.S. Senate Campaigns. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
Kenney, C., & MCburnett, M. (1994). An individual-level, multi-equation model of expenditure effects in contested House elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 88, 699-707. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2944804
King, G. (1995). Replication, Replication. PS: Political Science and Politics, 28, 443-499. Recuperado de [http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/replication.pdf]. - https://doi.org/10.2307/420301
Krebs, T. B. (1998). The determinants of candidates' vote share and the advantages of incumbency in city council elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 42, 921-35. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2991735
Lemos, L. B., Marcelino, D., & Pederiva, J. H. (2010). Por que dinheiro importa: a dinâmica das contribuições eleitorais para o Congresso Nacional em 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública, 16,(2,), 366-393. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000200004
Lott, W. F., & Warner III, P. D. (1974). The Relative Importance of Campaign Expenditures: An Application of Production Theory. Quality and Quantity, 8, 99-105. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00205867
Mancuso, W. P., & Speck, B. W. (2015). Financiamento Empresarial na Eleição Para Deputado Federal (2002 - 2010): Determinantes e Consequências. Teoria & Sociedade, Minas Gerais, 23.2, 103-125.
Mancuso, W. P. (2015). Investimento Eleitoral no Brasil balanço da literatura (2001-2012) e agenda de pesquisa. Sociologia Política, 23(54), 155-183. - https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-987315235409
Nicolau. (2006). O Sistema Eleitoral de Lista Aberta no Brasil. DADOS - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(4), 689-720. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582006000400002
Palda, F., & Palda, K. S. (1998). The Impact of Campaign Expenditures on Political Competition in the Frenc Lesgislative Elections of 1993. Public Choice, 94, 157-174. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004942118179
Palda, K. S. (1973). Does Adversating INfluence Votes? An Aanalysis of the 1966 and 1970 Quebec Elections. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 6, 638-55. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900040488
Palda, K. S. (1975). The Effect of Expenditure on Political Sucess. Jornal of Law and Economics, 18, 745-771. - https://doi.org/10.1086/466837
Palda, K. S. (1994). Desirability and Effects of Campaign Spending Limits. Crime, Law, and Social Change, 21(1), 295-317. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01307797
Paranhos, R., Figueiredo Filho, D. B., & Santos, D. S. (2016). Quem paga a conta? Página web. Grupo de pesquisa Cidadania & políticas públicas. Recuperado de [http://www.gcpp.com.br/quem-paga-a-conta/].
Poiré, A. (2006). From the Public INterest to the Poisoned Subsidy: Public funding of political parties in democratizing countries. In WWICS Post-Electoral Fellow in the Study of Democracy Competition. Santiago, Chile: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Samuels, D. J. (2001). When Does Every Penny Count?: Intra-party Competition and Campaign fiance in Brazil. Parti Politics, 7(1), 89-102. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068801007001005
Santos, R. D. (2014). Partidos na arena eleitoral: o financiamento das listas de candidatos a deputado federal no Rio de Janeiro em 2010. Paraná Eleitoral: revista brasileira de direito eleitoral e ciência política, 3(1).
Silberman, J. (1976). A Comment on the Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 25, 69-73. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01726334
Silva, G. P. (2013). Uma avaliação empírica da competição eleitoral na Câmara Federal no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 19(2), 403-429. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762013000200007
Welch, W. P. (1974). The Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 20, 83-97. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01718179
Welch, W. P. (1976). The Effectiviness of Expenditures in State Legislative Races. American Politics Quarterly, 4, 333-356. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X7600400303
Calheiros, E., GuimarÃes, F., Pequeno, M., Rodrigues, Q., & Gomes, T. (2020). Clube da luta: competição eleitoral na disputa para os governos estaduais brasileiros (2006-2018). Revista De Estudios Brasileños, 6(13), 149–168. https://doi.org/10.14201/reb2019613149168
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