Ideological proximity in the presidential elections of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Honduras
Abstract In this article we test the theory of proximity voting in the most recent presidential elections of three Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador and Honduras. For this purpose, we specified Mixed Mutinomial Probit models and found that ideological proximity had a relevant effect on voters’ choices. Moreover, the ideological distance between those citizens and the candidates affected the latter differently, depending on the partisan context in which they were competing.
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Alcántara, Manuel. ¿Instituciones o máquinas ideológicas? Origen, programa y organización de los partidos latinoamericanos. Barcelona: icps, 2004.
Álvarez, Michael y Nagler, Jonathan. When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 1998, vol. 42 (1): 55-96. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991747
Artiga, Álvaro. Los partidos políticos frente a la plena capacidad de opción. Estudios Centroamericanos, 2014, vol. 740: 15-43.
Atkeson, Lonna Rae. «Sure, I Voted for the Winner!» Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Election Studies. Political Behavior, 1999, vol. 21 (3): 197-215. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022031432535
Azpuru, Dinorah. The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador. Latin American Politics and Society, 2010, vol. 52 (2): 103-138. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2010.00083.x
Baker, Andy y Greene, Kenneth. The Latin American Left's Mandate: Free-Market Policies and Issue Voting in New Democracies. World Politics, 2011, vol. 63 (1): 43-77. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887110000286
Baker, Andy y Greene, Kenneth. Positional Issue Voting in Latin America. En Carlin, Ryan; Singer, Matthew y Zechmeister, Elizabeth (eds.). The Latin American Voter. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2015: 173-194.
Boscán, Guillermo. Voto y competición electoral en América Latina. Tesis doctoral. Salamanca: Universidad de Salamanca, 2016.
Colomer, Josep M. y Escatel, Luis E. La dimensión izquierda-derecha en América Latina. Desarrollo Económico, 2005, vol. 45 (177): 123-136. https://doi.org/10.2307/3655894
Dow, J. K. y Endersby, W. Multinomial Probit and Multinomial Logit: A Comparison of Choice Models for Voting Research. Electoral studies, 2004, vol. 23 (1): 107-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(03)00040-4
Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Nueva York: Harper and Row, 1957.
Enelow, James y Hinich, Melvin. The Spatial Theory of Voting. An Introduction. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press, 1984.
Fazekas, Zoltan y Zsombor, Meder. Proximity and Directional Theory Compared: Taking Discriminant Positions Seriously in Multi-party Systems. Electoral Studies, 2013, vol. 32 (4): 693-707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.04.002
Grofman, Bernard. The Neglected Role of the Status Quo in Models of Issue Voting. Journal of Politics, 1985, vol. 47: 230-237. https://doi.org/10.2307/2131073
Hotelling, Harold. Stability in Competition. Economic Journal, 1929, vol. 39 (153): 41-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224214
Iversen, Torven. The Logics of Electoral Politics: Spatial, Directional, and Mobilization Effects. Comparative Political Studies, 1994, vol. 27 (1): 155-189. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414094027002001
Kedar, Orit. Voting for Policy not for Parties: How Voters Compensate for Power Sharing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511657481
Key Jr., V. O. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1936-1960. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966. https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674497764
Kinder, Donald D. y Kiewiet, D. Roderick. Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting. American Journal of Political Science, 1979, vol. 23 (3): 495-527. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111027
Lacy, Dean y Paolino, Philip. Testing Proximity versus Directional Voting using Experiments. Electoral Studies, 2010, vol. 29 (3): 460-471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.008
Lachat, Romain. The Impact of Party Polarization on Ideological Voting. Electoral Studies, 2008, 27 (4): 687-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.002
Lapop. Barómetro de las Américas 2014. Proyecto de Opinión Pública en América Latina. Universidad de Vanderbilt. Disponible en: www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop-espanol.
Lewis, Jeffrey y King, Gary. No Evidence on Directional vs. Proximity Voting. Political Analysis, 1999, vol. 8: 21-33. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029803
Long, J. S. y Freese, J. Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. College Station: Stata Press, 2014.
Luna, Juan Pablo. Segmented Representation. Political Party Strategies in Unequal Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199642649.001.0001
Luna, Juan Pablo y Zechmeister, Elizabeth. Political Representation in Latin America. A Study of Elite-Mass Congruence in Nine Countries. Comparative Political Studies, 2005, vol. 38 (4): 388-416. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004273205
Mainwaring, Scott y Torcal, Mariano. La institucionalización de los sistemas de partidos y la teoría del sistema partidista después de la tercera ola democratizadora. América Latina Hoy, 2005, vol. 41: 141-173.
Menéndez, Carlos. Honduras. Elecciones 2013: compra de votos y democracia. Honduras: Centro de Estudios y Documentación de Honduras, 2014.
Otero Felipe, Patricia. El sistema de partidos de Honduras tras la crisis política del 2009: ¿el fin del bipartidismo? Colombia Internacional, 2013, vol. 79: 249-287. https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint79.2013.09
Otero Felipe, Patricia y Rodríguez Zepeda, Juan Antonio. Vínculos ideológicos y rendimiento electoral en América Latina. Política y Gobierno, 2014, vol. 21 (1): 159-200.
Pardos-Prado, Sergi y Dinas, Elías. Systemic Polarization and Spatial Voting. European Journal of Political Research, 2010, 49 (6): 759-786. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01918.x
Pela. Base de datos del Proyecto Elites Parlamentarias de América Latina. Universidad de Salamanca. Disponible en: americo.usal.es/oir/elites/bases_de_datos-htm.
Quinn, Kevin M.; Martin, Andrew, D., y Whitford, Andrew B. Voter Choice in Multi-Party Democracies: A Test of Competing Theories and Models. American Journal of Political Science, 1999, vol. 43: 1231-1247. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991825
Rabinowitz, G. y McDonald, S. E. A Directional Theory of Issue Voting. American Political Science Review, 1989, vol. 83: 93-121. https://doi.org/10.2307/1956436
Réserve, Roody. El Salvador: Un a-o político y social convulso. Revista de Ciencia Política, 2016, vol. 36 (1): 177-194. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2016000100008
Rosas, Guillermo. The Ideological Organization of Latin American Legislative Parties: An Empirical Analysis of Elite Policy Preferences. Comparative Political Studies, 2005, vol. 38 (7): 824-849. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004274386
Ruiz Rodríguez, Leticia y Otero Felipe, Patricia. Indicadores de Partidos y Sistemas de Partidos. Madrid: cis, 2013.
Sánchez, Fernando. Cambio en la dinámica electoral en Costa Rica: un caso de Desalineamiento. América Latina Hoy, 2003, vol. 35: 115-146.
Seligson, Mitchell A. The Rise of Populism and the Left in Latin America. Journal of Democracy, 2007, vol. 18 (3): 81-95. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2007.0057
Thurner, Paul W. The Empirical Application of the Spatial Theory of Voting in Multiparty Systems with Random Utility Models. Electoral Studies, 2000, vol. 19: 493-517. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00025-6
Tomz, Michael y Van Houweling, Robert P. Candidate Positioning and Voter Choice. American Political Science Review, 2008, vol. 102 (3): 303-318. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055408080301
Train, Kenneth E. Discrete choice methods with simulation. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511805271
Tremi-o, Ilka. El pac al poder: Elecciones 2014 y los principales cambios en el sistema político costarricense. Península, 2016, vol. 11 (1): 103-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnsla.2016.01.005
Westholm, Anders. Distance versus Direction: The Illusory Defeat of the Proximity Theory of Electoral Choice. American Political Science Association, 1997, vol. 91 (4): 865-883. https://doi.org/10.2307/2952170
Zoco, Edurne. Legislators' Positions and Party System Competition in Central America: A Comparative Analysis. Party Politics, 2006, vol. 12 (2): 257-280. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068806061340
Álvarez, Michael y Nagler, Jonathan. When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 1998, vol. 42 (1): 55-96. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991747
Artiga, Álvaro. Los partidos políticos frente a la plena capacidad de opción. Estudios Centroamericanos, 2014, vol. 740: 15-43.
Atkeson, Lonna Rae. «Sure, I Voted for the Winner!» Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Election Studies. Political Behavior, 1999, vol. 21 (3): 197-215. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022031432535
Azpuru, Dinorah. The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador. Latin American Politics and Society, 2010, vol. 52 (2): 103-138. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2010.00083.x
Baker, Andy y Greene, Kenneth. The Latin American Left's Mandate: Free-Market Policies and Issue Voting in New Democracies. World Politics, 2011, vol. 63 (1): 43-77. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887110000286
Baker, Andy y Greene, Kenneth. Positional Issue Voting in Latin America. En Carlin, Ryan; Singer, Matthew y Zechmeister, Elizabeth (eds.). The Latin American Voter. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2015: 173-194.
Boscán, Guillermo. Voto y competición electoral en América Latina. Tesis doctoral. Salamanca: Universidad de Salamanca, 2016.
Colomer, Josep M. y Escatel, Luis E. La dimensión izquierda-derecha en América Latina. Desarrollo Económico, 2005, vol. 45 (177): 123-136. https://doi.org/10.2307/3655894
Dow, J. K. y Endersby, W. Multinomial Probit and Multinomial Logit: A Comparison of Choice Models for Voting Research. Electoral studies, 2004, vol. 23 (1): 107-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(03)00040-4
Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Nueva York: Harper and Row, 1957.
Enelow, James y Hinich, Melvin. The Spatial Theory of Voting. An Introduction. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press, 1984.
Fazekas, Zoltan y Zsombor, Meder. Proximity and Directional Theory Compared: Taking Discriminant Positions Seriously in Multi-party Systems. Electoral Studies, 2013, vol. 32 (4): 693-707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.04.002
Grofman, Bernard. The Neglected Role of the Status Quo in Models of Issue Voting. Journal of Politics, 1985, vol. 47: 230-237. https://doi.org/10.2307/2131073
Hotelling, Harold. Stability in Competition. Economic Journal, 1929, vol. 39 (153): 41-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224214
Iversen, Torven. The Logics of Electoral Politics: Spatial, Directional, and Mobilization Effects. Comparative Political Studies, 1994, vol. 27 (1): 155-189. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414094027002001
Kedar, Orit. Voting for Policy not for Parties: How Voters Compensate for Power Sharing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511657481
Key Jr., V. O. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1936-1960. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966. https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674497764
Kinder, Donald D. y Kiewiet, D. Roderick. Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting. American Journal of Political Science, 1979, vol. 23 (3): 495-527. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111027
Lacy, Dean y Paolino, Philip. Testing Proximity versus Directional Voting using Experiments. Electoral Studies, 2010, vol. 29 (3): 460-471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.008
Lachat, Romain. The Impact of Party Polarization on Ideological Voting. Electoral Studies, 2008, 27 (4): 687-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.002
Lapop. Barómetro de las Américas 2014. Proyecto de Opinión Pública en América Latina. Universidad de Vanderbilt. Disponible en: www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop-espanol.
Lewis, Jeffrey y King, Gary. No Evidence on Directional vs. Proximity Voting. Political Analysis, 1999, vol. 8: 21-33. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029803
Long, J. S. y Freese, J. Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. College Station: Stata Press, 2014.
Luna, Juan Pablo. Segmented Representation. Political Party Strategies in Unequal Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199642649.001.0001
Luna, Juan Pablo y Zechmeister, Elizabeth. Political Representation in Latin America. A Study of Elite-Mass Congruence in Nine Countries. Comparative Political Studies, 2005, vol. 38 (4): 388-416. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004273205
Mainwaring, Scott y Torcal, Mariano. La institucionalización de los sistemas de partidos y la teoría del sistema partidista después de la tercera ola democratizadora. América Latina Hoy, 2005, vol. 41: 141-173.
Menéndez, Carlos. Honduras. Elecciones 2013: compra de votos y democracia. Honduras: Centro de Estudios y Documentación de Honduras, 2014.
Otero Felipe, Patricia. El sistema de partidos de Honduras tras la crisis política del 2009: ¿el fin del bipartidismo? Colombia Internacional, 2013, vol. 79: 249-287. https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint79.2013.09
Otero Felipe, Patricia y Rodríguez Zepeda, Juan Antonio. Vínculos ideológicos y rendimiento electoral en América Latina. Política y Gobierno, 2014, vol. 21 (1): 159-200.
Pardos-Prado, Sergi y Dinas, Elías. Systemic Polarization and Spatial Voting. European Journal of Political Research, 2010, 49 (6): 759-786. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01918.x
Pela. Base de datos del Proyecto Elites Parlamentarias de América Latina. Universidad de Salamanca. Disponible en: americo.usal.es/oir/elites/bases_de_datos-htm.
Quinn, Kevin M.; Martin, Andrew, D., y Whitford, Andrew B. Voter Choice in Multi-Party Democracies: A Test of Competing Theories and Models. American Journal of Political Science, 1999, vol. 43: 1231-1247. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991825
Rabinowitz, G. y McDonald, S. E. A Directional Theory of Issue Voting. American Political Science Review, 1989, vol. 83: 93-121. https://doi.org/10.2307/1956436
Réserve, Roody. El Salvador: Un a-o político y social convulso. Revista de Ciencia Política, 2016, vol. 36 (1): 177-194. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2016000100008
Rosas, Guillermo. The Ideological Organization of Latin American Legislative Parties: An Empirical Analysis of Elite Policy Preferences. Comparative Political Studies, 2005, vol. 38 (7): 824-849. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004274386
Ruiz Rodríguez, Leticia y Otero Felipe, Patricia. Indicadores de Partidos y Sistemas de Partidos. Madrid: cis, 2013.
Sánchez, Fernando. Cambio en la dinámica electoral en Costa Rica: un caso de Desalineamiento. América Latina Hoy, 2003, vol. 35: 115-146.
Seligson, Mitchell A. The Rise of Populism and the Left in Latin America. Journal of Democracy, 2007, vol. 18 (3): 81-95. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2007.0057
Thurner, Paul W. The Empirical Application of the Spatial Theory of Voting in Multiparty Systems with Random Utility Models. Electoral Studies, 2000, vol. 19: 493-517. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00025-6
Tomz, Michael y Van Houweling, Robert P. Candidate Positioning and Voter Choice. American Political Science Review, 2008, vol. 102 (3): 303-318. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055408080301
Train, Kenneth E. Discrete choice methods with simulation. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511805271
Tremi-o, Ilka. El pac al poder: Elecciones 2014 y los principales cambios en el sistema político costarricense. Península, 2016, vol. 11 (1): 103-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnsla.2016.01.005
Westholm, Anders. Distance versus Direction: The Illusory Defeat of the Proximity Theory of Electoral Choice. American Political Science Association, 1997, vol. 91 (4): 865-883. https://doi.org/10.2307/2952170
Zoco, Edurne. Legislators' Positions and Party System Competition in Central America: A Comparative Analysis. Party Politics, 2006, vol. 12 (2): 257-280. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068806061340
Otero Felipe, P., & Rodríguez Zepeda, J. A. (2017). Ideological proximity in the presidential elections of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Honduras. América Latina Hoy, 77, 17–45. https://doi.org/10.14201/alh201771745
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