Análisis de convergencia económica en el interior de Chiapas: municipios, regiones e inconsistencias aparentes

Abstract

The data of annual per capita income estimated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for the municipal human development index in Mexico shows that, in Chiapas, during the period 2000-2005, there was a strong convergence at the municipal level while there was no regional convergence. To explain this apparent inconsistency, the article «Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature», published by Galton in 1886, is examined, concluding that the clustering level of the data (municipal or regional) determines the convergence analysis results, because the grouping of municipalities in regions causes loss of information that can generate phenomena of «regression towards the mean» or just the opposite, as is the case. In Chiapas, the municipal convergence would have led to convergence within the regions but not between regions.