Club de la lucha: competición electoral en la disputa por los gobiernos estatales brasileños (2006-2018)
Resumen ¿Cuál es el efecto recursos económicos disponibles por los partidos desafiantes en los votos? La literatura asume que los desafiantes son más eficientes cuando se trata de transformar el dinero en votos (Jacobson, 1978). Nuestro objetivo es analizar empíricamente esa relación, defendiendo la hipótesis de que los candidatos desafiantes son más eficientes a la hora de transformar recursos en votos. Para probar nuestra hipótesis analizaremos los datos de las elecciones para gobernadores de los años 2006, 2010, 2014 y 2018. Utilizaremos el Modelo de Regresión Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO) para estimar el efecto de los recursos disponibles sobre el voto. Nuestro objetivo se centra en los candidatos a las administraciones estatales brasileñas, cuyos resultados indican que: 1) hubo una caída significativa en los gastos de campaña electoral tras la ley que prohíbe la financiación privada; 2) El coste medio del voto en el año 2018 es de R$ 8, 84; y 3) los partidos desafiantes son más eficientes a la hora de transformar los recursos económicos en votos.
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Abramowitza, A. (1988). Explaining Senate election outcomes. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 82, 385-403. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1957392
Ansolabehere, S., & Gerber A. (1994). The mismeasure of campaign spending: evidence from the 1990 U.S. House elections. J. Polit., 56,1106-1118. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2132077
Avelino, G., Biderman, C., & Barone, L. S. (2011). "Articulações intrapartidárias e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(2), 319-347. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582011000200004
Bardwell, K. (2003). Not all money is equal: the differential effect of spending by incumbents and challengers in gubernatorial primaries. State Polit. Policy Q., 3, 294-308. - https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000300300304
Bartels, LM. (1991). Instrumental and "quasi-instrumental" variables. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 35, 777-800. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111566
Bonneau, C. W. (2007). The effects of campaign spending in state supreme court elections. Polit. Res. Q., 60, 489-99. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907305680
Bonneau, C. W., & Cann D. M. (2011). Campaign spending, diminishing marginal returns, and campaign finance restrictions in judicial elections. J. Polit., 73, 1267-1280. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000934
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2006). O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política, 1982-2002. Ed. Humanitas.
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2008). Organizações partidárias e seleção de candidatos no estado de São Paulo. Opinião Pública, 14(2), 454-485. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762008000200008
Dawson, P. A., & James E. Z. (1976). Political Finance and Participation in Congressual Elections. American Academy of Political and Social Science Annals, 425, 59-73. - https://doi.org/10.1177/000271627642500105
Donnay, P. B., & Ramsden, G. P. (1995). Public financing of legislative election in Minnesota. Legis. Stud. Q., 30, 351-364. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440225
Erikson, R. S., & Palfrey T. (1998). Campaign spending and incumbency: an alternative simultaneous equation approach. J. Polit., 60, 355-373. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2647913
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. (2009). O Elo corporativo? Grupos de Interesse, financiamento de campanha e regulação eleitoral. Dissertação de mestrado, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil.
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. et al. (2015). Financiamento de Campanha: nível de regulamentação em perspectiva comparada. E-Legis, 7, 36-50.
Financiamento corporativo de campanhas no Brasil (2014). 40 Encontro Anual da Anpocs. Caxambu: Minas Gerais.
Gierzynski, A., & Breaux, D. A. (1996). Legislative elections and the importance of money. Legis. Stud. Q., 21, 337-357. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440248
Giles, M. W., & Pritchard, A. (1985). Campaign expenditures and legislative election in Florida. Legis. Stud. Q., 10,71-88. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440116
Goidel, R. K., & Gross D. A. (1994). A systems approach to campaign finance in U.S. House elections. Am. Polit. Q., 22,125-153. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9402200201
Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2000). New evidence for new arguments: money and advertising in 1996 Senate elections. J. Polit., 62, 1087-1108. - https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00047
Green, D. P., & Krasno, JS. (1990). Rebuttal to Jacobson's "New evidence for old arguments." Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 363-372. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111451
Green, D. P., & Krasno, J. S. (1988). Salvation for the spendthrift incumbent: reestimating the effects of campaign spending in House elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 32, 884-907. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111193
Guimarães, F., Nascimento, W, Paranhos, R, Silva Júnior, J. A, & Silva, D. (2019). Meu dinheiro, minhas regras: tipos de gastos de campanha para prefeito no Brasil (2008-2016). RIEM, n° 19, año IX, enero-julio, 29-57.
Heiler, J. G., Viana, J. P. S., & Santos, R. D. (2016). O custo da política subnacional: a forma como o dinheiro é gasto importa? Relação entre receita, despesas e sucesso eleitoral. Opinião Pública, 22(1). - https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0191201622156
Holbrook, T., & Von Dunk, E. (1993). Electoral Competition in American States. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 955-962. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2938827
Holbrook, T., & Weinschenk, A. C. (2014). Campaigns, mobilization, and turnout in mayoral elections. Polit. Res. Q., 67, 42-55. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912913494018
Jacobson, G. C. (1978). The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1978.) The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1980). Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (2006a). Measuring campaign spending effects in U.S. House elections. See Brady & Johnston, 199-220.
Jacobson, G. C. (2006b). Campaign spending effects in U.S. Senate elections: evidence from the National Annenberg Election Survey. Elect. Stud., 25, 195-226. - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.05.005
Jacobson, G. C. (2011). A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. Nova York: Longman.
Jacobson, G. C. (2013). The Politics of Congressional Elections. Nova York: Pearson.
Jacobson, G. C. (2014). It's nothing personal: the decline of the incumbency advantage in congressional elections. Annu. Meet. Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., Chicago.
Kahn, K. F., & Kenney, P. J. (1999). The Spectacle of U.S. Senate Campaigns. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
Kenney, C., & MCburnett, M. (1994). An individual-level, multi-equation model of expenditure effects in contested House elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 88, 699-707. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2944804
King, G. (1995). Replication, Replication. PS: Political Science and Politics, 28, 443-499. Recuperado de [http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/replication.pdf]. - https://doi.org/10.2307/420301
Krebs, T. B. (1998). The determinants of candidates' vote share and the advantages of incumbency in city council elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 42, 921-35. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2991735
Lemos, L. B., Marcelino, D., & Pederiva, J. H. (2010). Por que dinheiro importa: a dinâmica das contribuições eleitorais para o Congresso Nacional em 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública, 16,(2,), 366-393. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000200004
Lott, W. F., & Warner III, P. D. (1974). The Relative Importance of Campaign Expenditures: An Application of Production Theory. Quality and Quantity, 8, 99-105. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00205867
Mancuso, W. P., & Speck, B. W. (2015). Financiamento Empresarial na Eleição Para Deputado Federal (2002 - 2010): Determinantes e Consequências. Teoria & Sociedade, Minas Gerais, 23.2, 103-125.
Mancuso, W. P. (2015). Investimento Eleitoral no Brasil balanço da literatura (2001-2012) e agenda de pesquisa. Sociologia Política, 23(54), 155-183. - https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-987315235409
Nicolau. (2006). O Sistema Eleitoral de Lista Aberta no Brasil. DADOS - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(4), 689-720. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582006000400002
Palda, F., & Palda, K. S. (1998). The Impact of Campaign Expenditures on Political Competition in the Frenc Lesgislative Elections of 1993. Public Choice, 94, 157-174. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004942118179
Palda, K. S. (1973). Does Adversating INfluence Votes? An Aanalysis of the 1966 and 1970 Quebec Elections. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 6, 638-55. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900040488
Palda, K. S. (1975). The Effect of Expenditure on Political Sucess. Jornal of Law and Economics, 18, 745-771. - https://doi.org/10.1086/466837
Palda, K. S. (1994). Desirability and Effects of Campaign Spending Limits. Crime, Law, and Social Change, 21(1), 295-317. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01307797
Paranhos, R., Figueiredo Filho, D. B., & Santos, D. S. (2016). Quem paga a conta? Página web. Grupo de pesquisa Cidadania & políticas públicas. Recuperado de [http://www.gcpp.com.br/quem-paga-a-conta/].
Poiré, A. (2006). From the Public INterest to the Poisoned Subsidy: Public funding of political parties in democratizing countries. In WWICS Post-Electoral Fellow in the Study of Democracy Competition. Santiago, Chile: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Samuels, D. J. (2001). When Does Every Penny Count?: Intra-party Competition and Campaign fiance in Brazil. Parti Politics, 7(1), 89-102. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068801007001005
Santos, R. D. (2014). Partidos na arena eleitoral: o financiamento das listas de candidatos a deputado federal no Rio de Janeiro em 2010. Paraná Eleitoral: revista brasileira de direito eleitoral e ciência política, 3(1).
Silberman, J. (1976). A Comment on the Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 25, 69-73. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01726334
Silva, G. P. (2013). Uma avaliação empírica da competição eleitoral na Câmara Federal no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 19(2), 403-429. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762013000200007
Welch, W. P. (1974). The Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 20, 83-97. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01718179
Welch, W. P. (1976). The Effectiviness of Expenditures in State Legislative Races. American Politics Quarterly, 4, 333-356. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X7600400303
Ansolabehere, S., & Gerber A. (1994). The mismeasure of campaign spending: evidence from the 1990 U.S. House elections. J. Polit., 56,1106-1118. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2132077
Avelino, G., Biderman, C., & Barone, L. S. (2011). "Articulações intrapartidárias e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(2), 319-347. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582011000200004
Bardwell, K. (2003). Not all money is equal: the differential effect of spending by incumbents and challengers in gubernatorial primaries. State Polit. Policy Q., 3, 294-308. - https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000300300304
Bartels, LM. (1991). Instrumental and "quasi-instrumental" variables. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 35, 777-800. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111566
Bonneau, C. W. (2007). The effects of campaign spending in state supreme court elections. Polit. Res. Q., 60, 489-99. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907305680
Bonneau, C. W., & Cann D. M. (2011). Campaign spending, diminishing marginal returns, and campaign finance restrictions in judicial elections. J. Polit., 73, 1267-1280. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000934
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2006). O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política, 1982-2002. Ed. Humanitas.
Braga, M. D. S. S. (2008). Organizações partidárias e seleção de candidatos no estado de São Paulo. Opinião Pública, 14(2), 454-485. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762008000200008
Dawson, P. A., & James E. Z. (1976). Political Finance and Participation in Congressual Elections. American Academy of Political and Social Science Annals, 425, 59-73. - https://doi.org/10.1177/000271627642500105
Donnay, P. B., & Ramsden, G. P. (1995). Public financing of legislative election in Minnesota. Legis. Stud. Q., 30, 351-364. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440225
Erikson, R. S., & Palfrey T. (1998). Campaign spending and incumbency: an alternative simultaneous equation approach. J. Polit., 60, 355-373. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2647913
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. (2009). O Elo corporativo? Grupos de Interesse, financiamento de campanha e regulação eleitoral. Dissertação de mestrado, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil.
Figueiredo Filho, D. B. et al. (2015). Financiamento de Campanha: nível de regulamentação em perspectiva comparada. E-Legis, 7, 36-50.
Financiamento corporativo de campanhas no Brasil (2014). 40 Encontro Anual da Anpocs. Caxambu: Minas Gerais.
Gierzynski, A., & Breaux, D. A. (1996). Legislative elections and the importance of money. Legis. Stud. Q., 21, 337-357. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440248
Giles, M. W., & Pritchard, A. (1985). Campaign expenditures and legislative election in Florida. Legis. Stud. Q., 10,71-88. - https://doi.org/10.2307/440116
Goidel, R. K., & Gross D. A. (1994). A systems approach to campaign finance in U.S. House elections. Am. Polit. Q., 22,125-153. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9402200201
Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2000). New evidence for new arguments: money and advertising in 1996 Senate elections. J. Polit., 62, 1087-1108. - https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00047
Green, D. P., & Krasno, JS. (1990). Rebuttal to Jacobson's "New evidence for old arguments." Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 363-372. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111451
Green, D. P., & Krasno, J. S. (1988). Salvation for the spendthrift incumbent: reestimating the effects of campaign spending in House elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 32, 884-907. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111193
Guimarães, F., Nascimento, W, Paranhos, R, Silva Júnior, J. A, & Silva, D. (2019). Meu dinheiro, minhas regras: tipos de gastos de campanha para prefeito no Brasil (2008-2016). RIEM, n° 19, año IX, enero-julio, 29-57.
Heiler, J. G., Viana, J. P. S., & Santos, R. D. (2016). O custo da política subnacional: a forma como o dinheiro é gasto importa? Relação entre receita, despesas e sucesso eleitoral. Opinião Pública, 22(1). - https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0191201622156
Holbrook, T., & Von Dunk, E. (1993). Electoral Competition in American States. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 955-962. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2938827
Holbrook, T., & Weinschenk, A. C. (2014). Campaigns, mobilization, and turnout in mayoral elections. Polit. Res. Q., 67, 42-55. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912913494018
Jacobson, G. C. (1978). The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1978.) The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 72, 469-491. - https://doi.org/10.2307/1954105
Jacobson, G. C. (1980). Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1985). Money and votes reconsidered: congressional elections, 1972-1982. Public Choice, 47, 7-62. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00119352
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (1990). The effects of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 34, 334-362. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450
Jacobson, G. C. (2006a). Measuring campaign spending effects in U.S. House elections. See Brady & Johnston, 199-220.
Jacobson, G. C. (2006b). Campaign spending effects in U.S. Senate elections: evidence from the National Annenberg Election Survey. Elect. Stud., 25, 195-226. - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.05.005
Jacobson, G. C. (2011). A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. Nova York: Longman.
Jacobson, G. C. (2013). The Politics of Congressional Elections. Nova York: Pearson.
Jacobson, G. C. (2014). It's nothing personal: the decline of the incumbency advantage in congressional elections. Annu. Meet. Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., Chicago.
Kahn, K. F., & Kenney, P. J. (1999). The Spectacle of U.S. Senate Campaigns. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
Kenney, C., & MCburnett, M. (1994). An individual-level, multi-equation model of expenditure effects in contested House elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 88, 699-707. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2944804
King, G. (1995). Replication, Replication. PS: Political Science and Politics, 28, 443-499. Recuperado de [http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/replication.pdf]. - https://doi.org/10.2307/420301
Krebs, T. B. (1998). The determinants of candidates' vote share and the advantages of incumbency in city council elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci., 42, 921-35. - https://doi.org/10.2307/2991735
Lemos, L. B., Marcelino, D., & Pederiva, J. H. (2010). Por que dinheiro importa: a dinâmica das contribuições eleitorais para o Congresso Nacional em 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública, 16,(2,), 366-393. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000200004
Lott, W. F., & Warner III, P. D. (1974). The Relative Importance of Campaign Expenditures: An Application of Production Theory. Quality and Quantity, 8, 99-105. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00205867
Mancuso, W. P., & Speck, B. W. (2015). Financiamento Empresarial na Eleição Para Deputado Federal (2002 - 2010): Determinantes e Consequências. Teoria & Sociedade, Minas Gerais, 23.2, 103-125.
Mancuso, W. P. (2015). Investimento Eleitoral no Brasil balanço da literatura (2001-2012) e agenda de pesquisa. Sociologia Política, 23(54), 155-183. - https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-987315235409
Nicolau. (2006). O Sistema Eleitoral de Lista Aberta no Brasil. DADOS - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 49(4), 689-720. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582006000400002
Palda, F., & Palda, K. S. (1998). The Impact of Campaign Expenditures on Political Competition in the Frenc Lesgislative Elections of 1993. Public Choice, 94, 157-174. - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004942118179
Palda, K. S. (1973). Does Adversating INfluence Votes? An Aanalysis of the 1966 and 1970 Quebec Elections. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 6, 638-55. - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900040488
Palda, K. S. (1975). The Effect of Expenditure on Political Sucess. Jornal of Law and Economics, 18, 745-771. - https://doi.org/10.1086/466837
Palda, K. S. (1994). Desirability and Effects of Campaign Spending Limits. Crime, Law, and Social Change, 21(1), 295-317. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01307797
Paranhos, R., Figueiredo Filho, D. B., & Santos, D. S. (2016). Quem paga a conta? Página web. Grupo de pesquisa Cidadania & políticas públicas. Recuperado de [http://www.gcpp.com.br/quem-paga-a-conta/].
Poiré, A. (2006). From the Public INterest to the Poisoned Subsidy: Public funding of political parties in democratizing countries. In WWICS Post-Electoral Fellow in the Study of Democracy Competition. Santiago, Chile: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Samuels, D. J. (2001). When Does Every Penny Count?: Intra-party Competition and Campaign fiance in Brazil. Parti Politics, 7(1), 89-102. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068801007001005
Santos, R. D. (2014). Partidos na arena eleitoral: o financiamento das listas de candidatos a deputado federal no Rio de Janeiro em 2010. Paraná Eleitoral: revista brasileira de direito eleitoral e ciência política, 3(1).
Silberman, J. (1976). A Comment on the Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 25, 69-73. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01726334
Silva, G. P. (2013). Uma avaliação empírica da competição eleitoral na Câmara Federal no Brasil. Opinião Pública, 19(2), 403-429. - https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762013000200007
Welch, W. P. (1974). The Economics of Campaign Funds. Public Choice, 20, 83-97. - https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01718179
Welch, W. P. (1976). The Effectiviness of Expenditures in State Legislative Races. American Politics Quarterly, 4, 333-356. - https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X7600400303
Calheiros, E., GuimarÃes, F., Pequeno, M., Rodrigues, Q., & Gomes, T. (2020). Club de la lucha: competición electoral en la disputa por los gobiernos estatales brasileños (2006-2018). Revista De Estudios Brasileños, 6(13), 149–168. https://doi.org/10.14201/reb2019613149168
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