Tolerance for Postponing Elections in Crisis Conditions
Abstract Election postponements occur around the world for a variety of reasons, but they became especially widespread during the Covid-19 pandemic. Little is known how the public perceives and reacts to such democratic delays. To shed light on this topic, we included a question module in the 2021 AmericasBarometer about tolerance for alterations to democracy during periods of crisis. The data reveal that tolerance for election postponements is quite high. Further, through a wording experiment, we find that the public is more willing to accept such a delay during a health emergency vis-à-vis an alternative condition (widespread violence). We contextualize these findings by comparing them with attitudes about a more extreme anti-democratic disruption: a coup d’etat by security forces. Coups are significantly less popular than election postponements, especially during a health emergency. The results improve our understanding of public appetite for authoritarianism during periods of crisis.
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Aruguete, N., Calvo, E., Cantú, F., Ley, S., Scartascini, C. & Ventura, T. (2021). The partisan cues and perceived risks: the effect of partisan social media frames during the COVID-19 crisis in Mexico. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup. 1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924740
Bell-Martin, R. V., & Díaz Domínguez, A. (2021). The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 137–162. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26490u
Bisbee, J. & Honig, D. (2021). Flight to safety: COVID-induced changes in the intensity of status quo preference and voting behavior. American Political Science Review, 116(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000691
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5-19.
Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A., & Loewen, P.J. (2021). “The effect of COVID?19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?" European Journal of Political Research 60(2): 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401
Calvo, E. & Ventura, T. (2021). Will I get Covid-19? Partisanship, social media frames, and perceptions of health risk in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society. 63(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2020.30
Claassen, C. (2020). Does public support help democracy survive? American Journal of Political Science 64(1), 118-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12452
Dahl, R.A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and opposition. Yale University Press.
Devine, D., Gaskell, J., Jennings, W. & Stoker, G. (2020). Trust and the Coronavirus Pandemic: What are the Consequences of and for Trust? An Early Review of the Literature. Political Studies Review, 19(2), 274-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929920948684
De Vries, C.E., Bakker, B.N., Hobolt, S.B., & Arceneaux, K. (2021). Crisis signaling: how Italy's coronavirus lockdown affected incumbent support in other European countries. Political Science Research and Methods, 9(3), 451-467. 10.1017/psrm.2021.6
Esaiasson, P., Sohlberg, J., Ghersetti, M., & Johansson, B. (2021). How the coronavirus crisis affects citizen trust in institutions and in unknown others: Evidence from ‘the Swedish experiment’. European Journal of Political Research, 60(3), 748-760. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12419
Fernandez-Navia, T., Polo-Muro, E., & Tercero-Lucas, D. (2021). Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour. European Journal of Political Economy, 69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012
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Hyde, S. D., & Marinov, N. (2012). Which elections can be lost?. Political Analysis, 20(2), 191-210. 10.1093/pan/mpr040
James, T.S. & Alihodzic, S. (2020). "When is it democratic to postpone an election? Elections during natural disasters, Covid-19, and emergency situations." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 19(3): 344-362. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0642
Jennings, W. (2020). “Covid-19 and the ‘Rally-Round-the Flag’ effect, UK in a changing Europe.” Working Paper. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/covid-19-and-the-rally-round-the-flag-effect/
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Kritzinger, S., Foucault, M., Lachat, R., Partheymüller, J., Plescia, C., & Brouard, S. (2021). ‘Rally round the flag’: the COVID-19 crisis and trust in the national government. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1205-1231. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1925017
Landman, T. & Di Gennaro Splendore, L. (2020). Pandemic democracy: Elections and COVID-19. Journal of Risk Research 23(7-8): 1060-1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003
Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: How criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9): 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Lupu, N. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2021). The early Covid-19 pandemic and democratic Attitudes. PloS one 16(6): e0253485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253485
Matlosa, K. (2021). Elections in Africa during Covid-19: The tenuous balance between democracy and human security. Politikon, 48(2): 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2021.1913798
Merolla, J.L. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2009). Democracy at risk. University of Chicago Press.
Moraski, B.J. & Reisinger, W.M. (2007). Eroding democracy: Federal intervention in Russia's gubernatorial elections. Democratization, 14(4), 603-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701398303
Morley, M. T. (2017). Election Emergencies: Voting in the Wake of Natural Disasters and Terrorist Attacks. Emory Law Journal, 67(3), 545. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol67/iss3/6
Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610
Noury, A., François, A., Gergaud, O., & Garel, A. (2021). How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections. PloS one, 16(2), e0247026. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247026
Rapeli, L. & Saikkonen, I. (2020). "How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect democracy?" Democratic Theory, 7(2): 25-32. https://doi.org/10.3167/dt.2020.070204
Repucci, S. & Slipowitz, A. (2020). Democracy under lockdown. Freedom House Organization. https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-report/2020/democracy-under-lockdown
Sales, S. M. (1973). Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 28(1), 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0035588
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid?19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research, 60(4), 1007-1017. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12425
Seligson, M. A., & Booth, J. A. (2009). Predicting coups? Democratic vulnerabilities, the AmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran crisis. Latin American Public Opinion Project “Insights” Series. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/I0821en.pdf
Seligson, M. A., & Carrión, J. F. (2002). Political support, political skepticism, and political stability in new democracies: An empirical examination of mass support for coups d’etat in Peru. Comparative political studies, 35(1), 58-82.
Shapiro, R.Y. (2011). "Public opinion and American democracy." Public Opinion Quarterly 75(5): 982-1017. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfr053
Sobral, F., Carvalho, J., ?agowska, U., Furtado, L. M. G. P., & Grobman, M. (2020). Better safe than sorry: Leadership sensemaking in the time of Covid-19. Revista de Administração Pública, 54(4), 758-781. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-761220200262x
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2020). “Covid-19 and presidential popularity in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71-91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X1200400204
Aruguete, N., Calvo, E., Cantú, F., Ley, S., Scartascini, C. & Ventura, T. (2021). The partisan cues and perceived risks: the effect of partisan social media frames during the COVID-19 crisis in Mexico. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup. 1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924740
Bell-Martin, R. V., & Díaz Domínguez, A. (2021). The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 10(2), 137–162. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26490u
Bisbee, J. & Honig, D. (2021). Flight to safety: COVID-induced changes in the intensity of status quo preference and voting behavior. American Political Science Review, 116(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000691
Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5-19.
Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A., & Loewen, P.J. (2021). “The effect of COVID?19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?" European Journal of Political Research 60(2): 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401
Calvo, E. & Ventura, T. (2021). Will I get Covid-19? Partisanship, social media frames, and perceptions of health risk in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society. 63(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2020.30
Claassen, C. (2020). Does public support help democracy survive? American Journal of Political Science 64(1), 118-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12452
Dahl, R.A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and opposition. Yale University Press.
Devine, D., Gaskell, J., Jennings, W. & Stoker, G. (2020). Trust and the Coronavirus Pandemic: What are the Consequences of and for Trust? An Early Review of the Literature. Political Studies Review, 19(2), 274-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929920948684
De Vries, C.E., Bakker, B.N., Hobolt, S.B., & Arceneaux, K. (2021). Crisis signaling: how Italy's coronavirus lockdown affected incumbent support in other European countries. Political Science Research and Methods, 9(3), 451-467. 10.1017/psrm.2021.6
Esaiasson, P., Sohlberg, J., Ghersetti, M., & Johansson, B. (2021). How the coronavirus crisis affects citizen trust in institutions and in unknown others: Evidence from ‘the Swedish experiment’. European Journal of Political Research, 60(3), 748-760. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12419
Fernandez-Navia, T., Polo-Muro, E., & Tercero-Lucas, D. (2021). Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour. European Journal of Political Economy, 69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012
Hawkins, K., Read, M., & Pauwels, T. (2017). Populism and its causes. In Kaltwasser, C. R., Taggart, P. A., Espejo, P. O., & Ostiguy, P. (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of populism (pp. 267-286). Oxford University Press. 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.001.0001
Hyde, S. D., & Marinov, N. (2012). Which elections can be lost?. Political Analysis, 20(2), 191-210. 10.1093/pan/mpr040
James, T.S. & Alihodzic, S. (2020). "When is it democratic to postpone an election? Elections during natural disasters, Covid-19, and emergency situations." Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 19(3): 344-362. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0642
Jennings, W. (2020). “Covid-19 and the ‘Rally-Round-the Flag’ effect, UK in a changing Europe.” Working Paper. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/covid-19-and-the-rally-round-the-flag-effect/
Klobovs, L. (2020). “El impacto del Coronavirus en la figura presidencial Argentina.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 15-38. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23517
Kritzinger, S., Foucault, M., Lachat, R., Partheymüller, J., Plescia, C., & Brouard, S. (2021). ‘Rally round the flag’: the COVID-19 crisis and trust in the national government. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1205-1231. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1925017
Landman, T. & Di Gennaro Splendore, L. (2020). Pandemic democracy: Elections and COVID-19. Journal of Risk Research 23(7-8): 1060-1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003
Ley, S. (2018). To vote or not to vote: How criminal violence shapes electoral participation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9): 1963-1990. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717708600
Lupu, N. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2021). The early Covid-19 pandemic and democratic Attitudes. PloS one 16(6): e0253485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253485
Matlosa, K. (2021). Elections in Africa during Covid-19: The tenuous balance between democracy and human security. Politikon, 48(2): 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2021.1913798
Merolla, J.L. & Zechmeister, E.J. (2009). Democracy at risk. University of Chicago Press.
Moraski, B.J. & Reisinger, W.M. (2007). Eroding democracy: Federal intervention in Russia's gubernatorial elections. Democratization, 14(4), 603-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701398303
Morley, M. T. (2017). Election Emergencies: Voting in the Wake of Natural Disasters and Terrorist Attacks. Emory Law Journal, 67(3), 545. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol67/iss3/6
Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610
Noury, A., François, A., Gergaud, O., & Garel, A. (2021). How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections. PloS one, 16(2), e0247026. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247026
Rapeli, L. & Saikkonen, I. (2020). "How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect democracy?" Democratic Theory, 7(2): 25-32. https://doi.org/10.3167/dt.2020.070204
Repucci, S. & Slipowitz, A. (2020). Democracy under lockdown. Freedom House Organization. https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-report/2020/democracy-under-lockdown
Sales, S. M. (1973). Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 28(1), 44-57. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0035588
Schraff, D. (2020). Political trust during the Covid?19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects? European Journal of Political Research, 60(4), 1007-1017. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12425
Seligson, M. A., & Booth, J. A. (2009). Predicting coups? Democratic vulnerabilities, the AmericasBarometer and the 2009 Honduran crisis. Latin American Public Opinion Project “Insights” Series. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/I0821en.pdf
Seligson, M. A., & Carrión, J. F. (2002). Political support, political skepticism, and political stability in new democracies: An empirical examination of mass support for coups d’etat in Peru. Comparative political studies, 35(1), 58-82.
Shapiro, R.Y. (2011). "Public opinion and American democracy." Public Opinion Quarterly 75(5): 982-1017. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfr053
Sobral, F., Carvalho, J., ?agowska, U., Furtado, L. M. G. P., & Grobman, M. (2020). Better safe than sorry: Leadership sensemaking in the time of Covid-19. Revista de Administração Pública, 54(4), 758-781. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-761220200262x
Sosa-Villagarcia, P. & Hurtado Lozada, V. (2020). “Covid-19 and presidential popularity in Latin America.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública, 10(2), 71-91. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23664
Trelles, A., & Carreras, M. (2012). Bullets and votes: Violence and electoral participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4(2), 89-123. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X1200400204
Plutowski, L., & Zechmeister, E. J. (2022). Tolerance for Postponing Elections in Crisis Conditions. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 11(2), 135–151. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26934
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