Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública <p>The Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (RLOP) is the official publication of the&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Association for Public Opinion Research Latinoamérica</a> (WAPOR Latam). Since 2020 it is edited by the <a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instituto de Iberoamérica</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca</a>. It was previously edited by the <a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero</a>.</p> <p>Two issues are published a year, in Open Access format. The journal admits and publishes articles and research notes in Spanish, English and Portuguese.</p> <p>RLOP has initiated a new stage in which it will focus on the publication and dissemination of:</p> <ul> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-public opinion studies that contribute to the theoretical development and empirical verification of current social and political aspects and issues;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-studies that address these issues from a national, sub-national, transnational or more global research perspective;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-studies that address the role of public opinion in political decisions, the development of public policies, electoral behavior and communication;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-evaluations and improvements in the methodology of public opinion polls, and big data and in the analysis of these types of data</span></li> </ul> <p>The journal is aimed at public opinion scholars in Latin America, whether from the academic or professional world.</p> en-US <p>Authors who publish in RLOP will accept the following conditions:</p> <p>The authors retain the copyright and assign to the Journal the right of the first publication, with the work registered with the Creative Commons attribution license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).</p> (Ryan E. Carlin & Mariano Torcal) (Ángel Redero (Universidad de Salamanca)) Mon, 30 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200 OJS 60 Argentinian Elections <p>Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in less established democratic systems, such as those in Latin America, scientific election forecasting by opinion polls is irregular and by statistical models is almost non-existent. Here we attempt to ameliorate this situation by exploring the leading case of Argentina, where democratic elections have prevailed for the last thirty-eight years. We demonstrate the strengths—and the weaknesses—of the two approaches, finally giving the nod to structural models based political and economic fundamentals. Investigating the presidential and legislative elections there, 1983 to 2019, our political economy model performs rather better than the more popular vote intention method from polling.</p> Maria Celeste Ratto, Michael S. Lewis-Beck Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Tue, 31 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru <p>The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.</p> Moisés Arce, Sofía Vera Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error <p>The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error (how the forecast deviates from perfect accuracy/precision). The article finds that while the TSM does appear to be a stable estimator, its accuracy and precision is affected under certain conditions. Using the difference in the results for each of the two questions, the article discusses how sharp and unexpected shifts in electoral preferences can affect forecasts.</p> Kenneth Bunker Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica <p>Three econometric models were built between January and March 2020 to predict the September 3, 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. A Jack-knife resampling was performed for cross validation. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcomes, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in the Anglophone Caribbean because the</p> <p>Jamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For example, increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. This work should be replicated in the Caribbean and Latin America using panel data.</p> Christopher A. D. Charles, Dalkeith Dempster, Trevaun Welcome Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Against all Odds: Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections in times of political disruption <p>When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Brazil (2010, 2014 and 2018) and find that the addition of the three recent elections does not improve the accuracy of our forecast models although it strengthens the relationship between the explanatory variables and vote for the incumbent. We also find that models based on the popularity of the incumbent outperform those based on trial-heat polls and that electoral forecast models can survive earthquake elections like the 2018 election that led to the unexpected rise of “outsider” and extremist candidate Jair Bolsonaro.</p> Frederico Bertholini, Lucio Rennó, Mathieu Turgeon Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Preserving and making public thirty years of public opinion: lessons learned from the uruguayan case <p>Latin America has a long history of public opinion studies, surveys are a frequently used tool to understand citizens’ opinions, attitudes and behaviors. However, these are often private information, being inaccessible to researchers and policymakers. In addition, pollesters face particular challenges in making data available. This article shows a possible path by describing the experience of the Laboratory of Public Opinion and Social Networks (LOPReS) of Uruguay. The LOPReS is an example of colaboration between academia, the private sector and public financing, which allowed the dissemination of more than 200 public opinion surveys carried out among 1993 and 2020. We reflect on three important lessons learned from the project: the relevance of building trusting bonds, the generation of incentives for collaboration, and the importance of financing. The case serves as an example to analyze strategies that allow the openness of information, with the collaboration of various actors working together and the research opportunities that emerge from the results.</p> Eliana Álvarez, Juan Bogliaccini, Martín Opertti, Rosario Queirolo Velasco Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Forecasting Elections in Latin America: an Overview María Celeste Ratto, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Éric Bélanger Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Tue, 31 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Carew Boulding and Claudio A. Holzner (2021). Voice and Inequality: Poverty and Political Participation in Latin American Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 244 pages. ISBN: 9780197542149. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197542149.001.0001 Rosario Aguilar Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco. The Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 240 pages. ISBN: 978-1-108-84197-5. Yoonyoung Cho Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Index Secretaría de Redacción RLOP Copyright (c) 2022 Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200 Staff Secretaría de Redacción RLOP Copyright (c) 2022 Wed, 22 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0200