Democratic survival in Latin America (1945-2005)

  • Aníbal Pérez-Liñán
    University of Pittsburgh asp27[at]pitt.edu
  • Scott Mainwaring
    University of Notre Dam

Abstract

Why do democracies survive or break down? In this paper, it returns to this classic question with an empirical focus on Latin America from 1945 to 2005. The argument deviates from the quantitative literature and a good part of the qualitative literature on democratic survival and breakdown. It is argued that structural variables such as the level of development and inequalities have not shaped prospects for democratic survival in Latin America. Nor, contrary to findings in some of the literature, has economic performance affected the survival of competitive regimes. Instead, it is focused on the regional political environment and on actors’ normative preferences about democracy and dictatorship and their policy radicalism or moderation. It is argued that 1) a higher level of development did not increase the likelihood of democratic survival in Latin America over this long time; 2) if actors have a normative preference for democracy, it is more likely to survive; and 3) policy moderation facilitates democratic survival.
  • Referencias
  • Cómo citar
  • Del mismo autor
  • Métricas
Acemoglu, Daron y Robinson, James A. The Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.

Bellin, Eva. Contingent Democrats: Industrialists, Labor, and Democratization in Late Developing Countries. World Politics, 2000, vol. 52 (1): 175-205.

Berman, Sheri. The Social Democratic Movement: Ideas and Politics in the Making of Interwar Europe. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998.

Bermeo, Nancy. Myths of Moderation: Confrontation and Conflict during Democratic Transitions. Comparative Politics, 1997, vol. 29 (3): 305-322.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/422123

Boix, Carles. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

Brown, Archie. Transnational Influences in the Transition from Communism. Post-Soviet Affairs, 2000, vol. 16 (2): 177-200.

Carter, David B. y Signorino, Curtis S. Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data [citado en 2009]. Disponible en: http://www.rochester.edu/college/psc/signo- rino/research/Carter_Signorino_2009.pdf. 2009.

Cheibub, José Antonio. Minority Governments, Deadlock Situations, and the Survival of Presidential Democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 2002, vol. 35 (3): 284-312.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414002035003002

Collier, Ruth Berins. Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511625626

Dahl, Robert A. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971.

Dahl, Robert A. Democracy and Its Critics. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989.

Diamond, Larry. Economic Development and Democracy Reconsidered. En Marks, Gary y Diamond, Larry (eds.). Reexamining Democracy: Essays in Honor of Seymour Martin Lipset. Newbury Park: Sage, 1992: 93-139.

Diamond, Larry. Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999.

Diamond, Larry y Linz, Juan J. Introduction: Politics, Society, and Democracy in Latin America. En Diamond, Larry; Linz, Juan J. y Lipset, Seymour Martin (eds.). Democracy in Developing Countries: Latin America. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1989: 1-58.

Epstein, David L.; Bates, Robert; Goldstone, Jack; Kristensen, Ida y O’halloran, Sharyn. Democratic Transitions. American Journal of Political Science, 2006, vol. 50 (3): 551-569.

Figueiredo, Angelina Cheibub. Democracia ou Reformas: Alternativas Democráticas à Crise Política. Río de Janeiro: Paz e Terra, 1993.

Gasiorowski, Mark J. Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis. American Political Science Review, 1995, vol. 89 (4): 882-897.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2082515

Geddes, Barbara. What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science, 1999, 2: 115-144.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. All International Politics is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002.

Gómez, José María y Viola, Eduardo. Transición desde el autoritarismo y potencialidades de invención democrática en la Argentina de 1983. En Oszlak, Oscar (coord.). «Proceso», crisis y transición democrática. Buenos Aires: Centro Editor de América Latina, 1984, vol. 2: 29-42.

Haggard, Stephan y Kaufman, Robert R. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton: Princeton University press, 1995.

Inglehart, Ronald y Welzel, Christian. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005.

Karl, Terry L. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.

Laakso, Markku y Taagepera, Rein. Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies, 1979, vol. 12 (1): 3-27.

lamounier, Bolívar. Representação Política: A Importância de Certos Formalismos. En Lamounier, Bolívar; Weffort, Francisco C. y Benevides, María Victoria (eds.). Direito, Cidadania e Participação. São Paulo: T. A. Queiroz, 1981, 230-257.

Levine, Daniel H. Conflict and Political Change in Venezuela. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1973.

Levitsky, Steven y way, Lucan. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511781353

Linz, Juan J. The Breakdown of Democracy in Spain. En Linz, Juan J. y Stepan, Alfred (eds.). The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978a: 142-215.

Linz, Juan J. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown, and Reequilibration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978b.

Linz, Juan J. Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does it Make a Difference? En Linz, Juan J. y Valenzuela, Arturo (eds.). The Failure of Presidential Democracy. The Case of Latin America. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994: 3-87.

Lipset, Seymour M. Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy. The American Political Science Review, 1959, vol. 53 (1): 69-105.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1951731

Lipset, Seymour M. Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Garden City: Anchor, 1960.

Lipset, Seymour M.; Seong, Kyung-Ryung y Torres, John C. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Requisites of Democracy. International Social Science Journal, 1993, 136: 155-175.
Mainwaring, Scott. Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy –the Difficult Combination. Comparative Political Studies, 1993, vol. 26 (2): 198-228.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414093026002003

Mainwaring, Scott; Brinks, Daniel y Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. Classifying political regimes in Latin America, 1945-1999. Studies in Comparative International Development, 2001, vol. 36 (1): 37-65.

Mainwaring, Scott; brinks, Daniel y Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. Classifying Political Regimes in Latin America, 1945-2004. En Munck, Gerardo L. (ed.). Regimes and Democracy in Latin America: Theories and Methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007: 123-160.

Mainwaring, Scott y Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. Latin American Democratization since 1978: Democratic Transitions, Breakdowns, and Erosions. En Hagopian, Frances y Mainwaring, Scott (eds.). The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America: Advances and Setbacks. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005: 14-59.

Moore Jr., Barrington. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World. Boston: Beacon, 1966.

O’donnell, Guillermo. Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics. Berkeley: Institute for International Studies, University of California, 1973.

O’donnell, Guillermo. State and Alliances in Argentina. Journal of Development Studies, 1978a, vol. 15 (1): 3-33.

O’donnell, Guillermo. Permanent Crisis and the Failure to Create a Democratic Regime. En Linz, Juan J. y Stepan, Alfred (eds.). The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, vol. 3, Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978b: 138-177.

O’donnell, Guillermo. Introduction to the Latin American Cases. En O’donnell, Guillermo; Schmitter, Philippe y Whitehead, Laurence (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy, vol. 2, Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986: 3-18.

O’donnell, Guillermo. Democracy, Agency and the State: Theory with Comparative Intent. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199587612.001.0001

O’donnell, Guillermo y Schmitter, Philippe C. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.

Ollier, María Matilde. De la revolución a la democracia: Cambios privados, públicos y políticos de la izquierda argentina. Buenos Aires: Siglo xxi/Universidad Nacional de San Martín, 2009.

Pevehouse, Jon C. Democracy from Above? Regional Organizations and Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005.

Portantiero, Juan Carlos. La transición entre la confrontación y el acuerdo. En Nun, José y Portantiero, Juan Carlos (eds.). Ensayos sobre la transición democrática en la Argentina. Buenos Aires: Puntosur, 1987: 257-293.

Potter, Anne L. The Failure of Democracy in Argentina 1916-1930: An Institutional Perspective. Journal of Latin American Studies, 1981, vol. 13 (1): 83-109.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X00006179

Przeworski, Adam. Problems in the Study of Transition to Democracy. En O’donnell, Guillermo; Schmitter, Philippe y Whitehead, Laurence (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy, vol. 3. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986: 47-63.

Przeworski, Adam. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139172493

Przeworski, Adam. Minimalist Conception of Democracy: A Defense. En Shapiro, Ian y Hacker-Cordón, Casiano (eds.). Democracy’s Value. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999: 23-55.

Przeworski, Adam; Álvarez, Michael E.; Cheibub, José Antonio y Limongi, Fernando. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.

Ross, Michael L. Does Oil Hinder Democracy? World Politics, 2001, vol. 53 (3): 325-361.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2001.0011

Rouquié, Alain. Poder militar y sociedad política en la Argentina, hasta 1943. Buenos Aires: Emecé, 1982a.

Rouquié, Alain. Poder militar y sociedad política en la Argentina, 1943-1973. Buenos Aires: Emecé, 1982b.

Rueschemeyer, Dietrich; Stephens, Evelyne Huber y Stephens, John D. Capitalist Development and Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992.

Rustow, Dankwart A. Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model. Comparative Politics, 1970, vol. 2 (3): 337-363.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/421307

Santos, Wanderley Guilherme dos. Sessenta e Quatro: Anatomia da Crise. São Paulo: Vértice, 1986.

Shugart, Matthew S. y Carey, John M. Presidents and Assemblies. Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.

Skach, Cindy y Stepan, Alfred. Presidentialism and Parliamentarism in Comparative Perspective. En Linz, Juan J. y Valenzuela, Arturo (eds.). The Failure of Presidential Democracy, vol. 1, Comparative Perspectives. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994: 119-136.

Smith, Peter H. The Breakdown of Democracy in Argentina, 1916-30. En Linz, Juan J. y Stepan, Alfred (eds.). The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978: 3-27.

Stepan, Alfred. The Military in Politics: Changing Patterns in Brazil. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971.

Stepan, Alfred. Political Leadership and Regime Breakdown: Brazil. En Linz, Juan J. y Stepan, Alfred (eds.). The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, vol. 3, Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978: 110-137.

Valenzuela, Arturo. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Chile. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978.

Valenzuela, J. Samuel. Democratic Consolidation in Post-Transitional Settings: Notion, Process, and Facilitating Conditions. En Mainwaring, Scott; O’donnell, Guillermo y Valenzuela, J. Samuel (eds.). Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992: 57-104.

Viola, Eduardo. Democracia e Autoritarismo na Argentina Contemporânea. Tesis de doctorado, Universidad de São Paulo, 1982.

Waisman, Carlos H. Reversal of Development in Argentina: Postwar Counterrevolutionary Policies and Their Structural Consequences. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987.

Waisman, Carlos H. Argentina: Autarkic Industrialization and Illegitimacy. En Diamond, Larry; Linz, Juan J. y Lipset, Seymour Martin (eds.). Democracy in Developing Countries: Latin America. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1989: 59-109.

Walker, Ignacio. Socialismo y democracia: Chile y Europa en perspectiva comparada. Santiago:

Cieplan/Hachette, 1990.

Weffort, Francisco C. Por Que Democracia? São Paulo: Brasiliense, 1984.

Weffort, Francisco C. Why Democracy? En Stepan, Alfred (ed.). Democratizing Brazil: Problems of Transition and Consolidation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989: 327-350. Whitehead, Laurence. International Aspects of Democratization. En O’donnell, Guillermo; Schmitter, Philippe y Whitehead, Laurence (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986: 3-46.

Whitehead, Laurence (ed.). The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
Pérez-Liñán, A., & Mainwaring, S. (2015). Democratic survival in Latin America (1945-2005). América Latina Hoy, 68, 139–168. https://doi.org/10.14201/alh201468139168

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Aníbal Pérez-Liñán

,
University of Pittsburgh
Department of Political Science. University of Pittsburgh 4600 Wesley W. Posvar Hall. Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (Estados Unidos)

Scott Mainwaring

,
University of Notre Dam
Kellogg Institute for International Studies. University of Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Indiana 46556 (Estados Unidos)
+