A democracia está à vista de todos? Personalismo presidencial e a opinião pública sobre o status democrático do país
Resumo
Frequentemente, presume-se que as crenças das pessoas sobre a democracia sejam independentes de suas motivações políticas. Pesquisas recentes, no entanto, mostram que as identidades partidárias e políticas desempenham um papel crucial na formação de atitudes em relação à democracia. Este estudo argumenta que cidadãos que se identificam com um presidente personalista são mais propensos a perceber seu país como uma democracia. Presidentes personalistas legitimam seu poder e autoridade apelando para suas supostas qualidades individuais excepcionais e habilidades políticas. Seu estilo personalista pode, portanto, aumentar o senso de agência coletiva e inspirar os cidadãos a acreditarem que vivem em uma democracia — mas apenas até certo ponto. Presidentes fortemente personalistas podem exercer a influência oposta. Com base em pesquisas representativas de doze países da América Latina, a análise indica que os eleitores são mais propensos a ver seu país como uma democracia em níveis moderados de personalismo. Presidentes altamente personalistas tendem a dividir o eleitorado, com os eleitores da oposição tornando-se mais céticos quanto ao status democrático de seu país. Essas descobertas sugerem que presidentes personalistas minam a responsabilidade democrática ao polarizar a opinião pública sobre a democracia.
- Referencias
- Cómo citar
- Del mismo autor
- Métricas
Aguiar Aguilar, A., Castro Cornejo, R., & Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2025). Is Mexico at the Gates of Authoritarianism? Journal of Democracy, 36(1), 50-64. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2025.a947883
Ahmed, A. (2023). Is the American Public Really Turning Away from Democracy? Backsliding and the Conceptual Challenges of Understanding Public Attitudes. Perspectives on Politics, 21(3), 967-978. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592722001062
Balderacchi, C., & and Tomini, L. (2024). Alternative patterns to electoral autocracy: recognizing diversity in contemporary autocratization processes. Democratization, 31(8), 1890-1911. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2024.2349621
Bayes, R., Druckman, J. N., Goods, A., & Molden, D. C. (2020). When and How Different Motives Can Drive Motivated Political Reasoning. Political Psychology, 41(5), 1031-1052. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12663
Bessen, B. R. (2024). Populist Discourse and Public Support for Executive Aggrandizement in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies, 57(13), 2118-2151. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140231223738
Bohigues, A., & Sendra, M. (2026). Presidential approval and power concentration as leverage of political support: Evidence from Latin America. Politics, 0(0), 02633957251403882. https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957251403882
Booth, J. A., & Seligson, M. A. (2009). The Legitimacy Puzzle in Latin America: Political Support and Democracy in Eight Nations. Cambridge University Press.
Brunkert, L., & von Soest, C. (2023). Praising the leader: personalist legitimation strategies and the deterioration of executive constraints. Democratization, 30(3), 419-439. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2022.2150760
Bryan, M. L., & Jenkins, S. P. (2015). Multilevel Modelling of Country Effects: A Cautionary Tale. European Sociological Review, 32(1), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcv059
Carlin, R., & Singer, M. M. (2011). Support for Polyarchy in the Americas. Comparative Political Studies, 44(11), 1500-1526. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414011407471
Carrión, J. F., & Zárate, P. (2023). Peru: Deep Political Dissatisfaction Weakens Support for Democracy. Revista Lationamericana de Opinión Pública, 12(2), 25-54. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31378
Cella, L., Çınar, I., Stokes, S., & Uribe, A. (2025). Building Tolerance for Backsliding by Trash-Talking Democracy: Theory and Evidence From Mexico. Comparative Political Studies, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140251328024
Claassen, C. (2020). Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive? American Journal of Political Science, 64(1), 118-134. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12452
Claassen, C., Ackermann, K., Bertsou, E., Borba, L., Carlin, R. E., Cavari, A., Dahlum, S., Gherghina, S., Hawkins, D., Lelkes, Y., Magalhães, P. C., Mattes, R., Meijers, M. J., Neundorf, A., Oross, D., Öztürk, A., Sarsfield, R., Self, D., Stanley, B.,… Zechmeister, E. J. (2024). Conceptualizing and Measuring Support for Democracy: A New Approach. Comparative Political Studies, 0(0), 00104140241259458. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241259458
Cohen, M. J., Smith, A. E., Moseley, M. W., & Layton, M. L. (2022). Winners’ Consent? Citizen Commitment to Democracy When Illiberal Candidates Win Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 67(2), 261-276. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12690
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Glynn, A., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Pemstein, D., Seim, B., Skaaning, S.-E., & Teorell, J. (2020). Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/9781108347860
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Angiolillo, F., Bernhard, M., Cornell, A., Fish, M. S., Fox, L., Gastaldi, L., Gjerløw, H., Glynn, A., Good God, A., Grahn, S., Hicken, A., Kinzelbach, K., Krusell, J.,… Ziblatt, D. (2025a). V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v15. In: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Angiolillo, F., Bernhard, M., Cornell, A., Fish, M. S., Fox, L., Gastaldi, L., Gjerløw, H., Glynn, A., Good God, A., Grahn, S., Hicken, A., Kinzelbach, K., Marquardt, K. L.,… Ziblatt, D. (2025b). V-Dem Codebook v15. In: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
Corrales, J., & Kronick, D. (2025). How Maduro Stole Venezuela’s Vote. Journal of Democracy, 1, 36-49. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2025.a947882
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press.
Ditto, P. H., Celniker, J. B., Siddiqi, S. S., Güngör, M., & Relihan, D. P. (2025). Partisan Bias in Political Judgment. Annual Review of Psychology, 76(Volume 76, 2025), 717-740. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-030424-122723
Druckman, J. N. (2012). The Politics of Motivation. Critical Review, 24(2), 199-216. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913811.2012.711022
Frantz, E., Kendall-Taylor, A., Nietsche, C., & Wright, J. (2021). How Personalist Politics Is Changing Democracies. Journal of Democracy, 32(3), 94-108.
Gamboa, L. (2022). Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009164085
Gordillo García, J. (2025). Erosión democrática en Mexico: repertorio e innovaciones autoritarias (2018-2024). Convergencia, 32, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.29101/crcs.v32i1.24668
Graham, M. H., & Svolik, M. W. (2020). Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 392-409. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000052
Hawkins, K. A., & Mitchell, G. A. (2025). The Effect of Populist Incumbents on Democracy. PS: Political Science & Politics, 58(1), 77-81. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096524000453
Hawkins, K. A., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2019). Introduction: The Ideational Approach. In K. A. Hawkins, R. Carlin, L. Levente, & C. Rovira Kaltwasser (Eds.), The Ideational Approach to Populism: Concept, Theory, and Analysis (pp. 1-24). Routledge.
Kirsch, H., & Welzel, C. (2018). Democracy Misunderstood: Authoritarian Notions of Democracy around the Globe. Social Forces, 98(1), 59-92. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy114
Klingemann, H.-D. (2014). Dissatisfied Democrats: Democratic Maturation in Old and New Democracies. In R. J. Dalton & C. Welzel (Eds.), The Civic Culture Transformed: From Allegiant to Assertive Citizens (pp. 116-157). Cambridge University Press.
Krishnarajan, S. (2023). Rationalizing Democracy: The Perceptual Bias and (Un)Democratic Behavior. American Political Science Review, 117(2), 474-496. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422000806
LAPOP Lab. (2023). AmericasBarometer 2023: Technical Information. Vanderbilt University, Americas Barometer. https://t.ly/7qA9P
Levitsky, S. (2018). Latin America’s Shifting Politics: Democratic Survival and Weakness. Journal of Democracy, 29(4). https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2018.0066
Levitsky, S., & Loxton, J. (2013). Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in the Andes. Democratization, 20(1), 107-136. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.738864
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2010). Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge University Press.
Little, A. T., Schnakenberg, K. E., & Turner, I. R. (2022). Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability. American Political Science Review, 116(2), 751-767. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421001209
Lührmann, A. (2021). Disrupting the autocratization sequence: towards democratic resilience. Democratization, 28(5), 1017-1039. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1928080
Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2019). A Third Wave of Autocratization is Here: What is New About It? Democratization, 26(7), 1095-1113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M., & Lindberg, S. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance, 6(1), 60-77. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214
Luján, D., & Puig Lombardi, G. The personalistic challenge: The rise of Bukele and the collapse of an ideologically structured party system in El Salvador. International Political Science Review, 0(0), 01925121251321566. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121251321566
Lupu, N. (2014). Brand Dilution and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. World politics, 66(4), 561-602. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887114000197
Mainwaring, S. (2018). Party System Institutionalization in Contemporary Latin America. In S. Mainwaring (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse (pp. 34-70). Cambridge University Press.
Mainwaring, S., & Pérez Liñ´an, A. (2023). Why Latin America’s Democracies Are Stuck. Jornal of Democracy, 34(1), 156-170.
Mauk, M. (2020). Citizen Support for Democratic and Autocratic Regimes. Oxford University Press.
Meléndez, C. (2023). The Resilience of Democratic Values Under Difficult Conditions. The Case of Guatemala 2012-2021. Revista Lationamericana de Opinión Pública, 12(2), 119-144. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31387
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2019). La indiferencia hacia la democracia en América Latina. Íconos, 66, 151-177. https://doi.org/10.17141/iconos.66.2020.3469
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2020). Permissive Winners? The Quality of Democracy and the Winner–Loser Gap in the Perception of Freedoms. Political Studies, 70(1), 173-194. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720952230
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2021). El efecto divergente del populismo: Presidentes populistas y apoyo al régimen en América Latina. Política y Gobierno, 28(1-39).
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2026). Rewarding Populism: Public Support for the Subversion of Democracy in Mexico. Latin American Research Review, 61(1), 100-123. https://doi.org/10.1017/lar.2025.10110
Munck, G. (2023). Reimagining the Social Sciences: Knowledge, Epistemic Change, and the Study of Democracy. In G. Munck (Ed.), [In progress] (pp. 134-180). N.A. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4365181
Norris, P. (2017). The Conceptual Framework of Political Support. In T. W. G. van der Meer & S. Zmerli (Eds.), Handbook on Political Trust (pp. 19-32). Edward Elgar Publishing.
O’Donnell, G. (1994). Delegative Democracy. Journal of Democracy, 5(1), 55-69. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1994.0010
Osawa, S. (2025). The process of personalization in Nicaragua: Lessons from the hybrid regime. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 10(1), 41-54. https://doi.org/10.1177/20578911241238375
Pérez-Liñán, A., Schmidt, N., & Vairo, D. (2019). Presidential hegemony and democratic backsliding in Latin America, 1925–2016. Democratization, 26(4), 606-625. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1566321
Rhodes-Purdy, M., & Madrid, R. L. (2020). The perils of personalism. Democratization, 27(2), 321-339. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1696310
Robison, J. (2017). The Social Rewards of Engagement: Appealing to Social Motivations to Stimulate Political Interest at High and Low Levels of External Efficacy. Political Studies, 65(1), 24-41. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321715619431
Schedler, A. (2013). The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford University Press.
Schedler, A., & Sarsfield, R. (2007). Democrats with Adjectives: Linking Direct and Indicret Measures of Democratic Support. European Journal of Political Research, 46(5), 637-659.
Seawright, J. (2012). Party-System Collapse: the Roots of Crisis in Peru and Venezuela. Stanford University Press.
Shin, D. C., & Kim, H. J. (2018). How Global Citizenries Think about Democracy: An Evaluation and Synthesis of Recent Public Opinion Research. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 19(2), 222-249. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109918000063
Singer, M. (2018). Delegating Away Democracy: How Good Representation and Policy Successes Can Undermine Democratic Legitimacy. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1754-1788. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018784054
Singer, M. (2021). Fiddling while Democracy Burns: Partisan Reactions to Weak Democracy in Latin America. Perspectives on Politics, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592721002899
Singer, M. M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting. The Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730-742. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381613000467
Singh, S. P., & Carlin, R., E. (2015). Happy Medium, Happy Citizens: Presidential Power and Democratic Regime Support. Political Research Quarterly, 68(1), 3-17. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912914534534
Singh, S. P., & Mayne, Q. (2023). Satisfaction with Democracy: A Review of a Major Public Opinion Indicator. Public Opinion Quarterly, 87(1), 187-218. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad003
Stegmueller, D. (2013). How Many Countries for Multilevel Modeling? A Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches. American Journal of Political Science, 57(3), 748-761. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12001
Subinas, J., & García-Rendón, S. (2025). “A la gente como yo nos da lo mismo”. Efectos de las condiciones materiales en la indiferencia hacia el régimen político en América Latina. Desafíos, 37(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/desafios/a.14138
Svolik, M. W. (2020). When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 15(1), 3-31. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00018132
Taber, C. S., & Lodge, M. (2012). Motivated Sckepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs (2006). Critical Review, 24(2), 157-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913811.2012.711019
Tannenberg, M., Bernhard, M., Gerschewski, J., Lührmann, A., & von Soest, C. (2020). Claiming the right to rule: regime legitimation strategies from 1900 to 2019. European Political Science Review, 77-94. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773920000363
Tannenberg, M., Bernhard, M., Gerschewski, J., Lührmann, A., & von Soest, C. (2021). Claiming the right to rule: regime legitimation strategies from 1900 to 2019. European Political Science Review, 13(1), 77-94. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773920000363
Teorell, J., Coppedge, M., Lindberg, S., & Skaaning, S.-E. (2019). Measuring Polyarchy Across the Globe, 1900–2017 [journal article]. Studies in Comparative International Development, 54(1), 71-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-018-9268-z
Thaler, K. M., & Mosinger, E. (2022). Nicaragua: Doubling Down on Dictatorship. Journal of Democracy, 33(2), 133-146. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0023
Weyland, K. (2001). Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of Latin American Politics. Comparative Politics, 34(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.2307/422412
Weyland, K. (2017). Populism: A Political-Strategic Approach. In C. R. Kaltwasser, P. Taggart, P. O. Espejo, & P. Ostiguy (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Populism (pp. 48-72). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.013.2
Wolf, S. (2024). El Salvador under Nayib Bukele: the turn to electoral authoritarianism. Revista de Ciencia Política, 44(2), 295-321. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x
2024005000122
Wunsch, N., Jacob, M. S., & Derksen, L. (2022). The Demand Side of Democratic Backsliding: How Divergent Understandings of Democracy Shape Political Choice. OSF Preprints, Version 5. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/c64gf