As (percepções de) pesquisas eleitorais afetam o voto? Efeitos de campanha, viés partidário e votação estratégica no México
Resumo
Este artigo destaca o importante papel da identidade partidária na moderação das percepções dos eleitores sobre os dados das pesquisas, bem como os incentivos que os eleitores têm para se comportar estrategicamente. Considerando que estudos anteriores argumentaram que os eleitores partidários eram menos propensos a votar estrategicamente à medida que os custos de deserção expressiva aumentavam, este estudo explora as condições sob as quais os eleitores — incluindo os partidários — se comportam estrategicamente, o que contribui para aumentar a proporção de eleitores que mudam sua intenção de voto durante as campanhas . Somente os partidários informados sobre as pesquisas eleitorais conseguem superar seu viés partidário e votar estrategicamente. Ao levar em consideração o voto estratégico no estudo de campanhas eleitorais, este artigo estabelece uma ponte entre a literatura sobre efeitos de campanha e o voto estratégico.
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