https://revistas.usal.es/cuatro/index.php/1852-9003/issue/feed 2024-03-24T17:57:17+01:00 Ryan E. Carlin & Mariano Torcal rlop@usal.es Open Journal Systems <p>The Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (RLOP) is the official publication of the <a href="http://www.waporlatinoamerica.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Association for Public Opinion Research Latinoamérica</a> (WAPOR Latam). Since 2020 it is edited by the <a href="http://americo.usal.es/iberoame/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instituto de Iberoamérica</a> and <a href="https://www.eusal.es/index.php/eusal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca</a>.</p> <p>One issue is published a year in Open Access continuous publication. The journal admits and publishes articles and research notes in Spanish, English and Portuguese.</p> <p>RLOP has initiated a new stage in which it will focus on the publication and dissemination of:</p> <ul> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-public opinion studies that contribute to the theoretical development and empirical verification of current social and political aspects and issues;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-studies that address these issues from a national, sub-national, transnational or more global research perspective;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-studies that address the role of public opinion in political decisions, the development of public policies, electoral behavior and communication;</span></li> <li class="li1 show"><span class="s2">-evaluations and improvements in the methodology of public opinion polls, and big data and in the analysis of these types of data</span></li> </ul> <p>The journal is aimed at public opinion scholars in Latin America, whether from the academic or professional world.</p> https://revistas.usal.es/cuatro/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/31348 2024-03-24T17:57:17+01:00 Brian Thompson-Collart brian-phelan.thompson-collart.1@ulaval.ca Evelyne Brie ebrie@uwo.ca Yannick Dufresne yannick.dufresne@pol.ulaval.ca

<p>The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.</p>

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