Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

2024-03-24T17:57:17+01:00

The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.

Procedural fairness and political attitudes: unpacking the experiences of victims of intimate partner violence with the police

2024-05-10T12:53:19+02:00

What is the relationship between procedural fairness in encounters with the police and intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors’ attitudes? I argue that because of the emotional damage caused by victimization, survivors are especially attuned to the interpersonal treatment they receive when seeking help from specialized services (e. g., police). If this treatment is procedurally unfair, they might conclude that IPV laws are not effective and become less likely to report intentions to intervene by calling the police if they witness intimate partner violence. Relying on public opinion data from Brazil, I find that procedural fairness matters for survivors’ opinions about laws, but I found no relationship between procedural fairness and bystander intervention attitudes. I explore possible explanations for this non-finding with several additional analyses.

Political cleavages in Brazil: a longitudinal dimension

2024-11-29T10:38:23+01:00

The study investigates the persistence and evolution of political cleavages in Brazil, examining how differences in public opinion relate to value priorities (materialism and postmaterialism) and party preference for the Workers’ Party (PT). The empirical basis consists of data from five waves of the World Values Survey (1991, 1997, 2006, 2014, and 2018), analyzed using factor analysis and item response theory techniques. The results reveal a value difference of the liberal-fundamentalist type that remains constant over the waves, with fundamentalist voters being more materialistic and less likely to prefer the PT. Additionally, it is observed that the relationship between this liberal-fundamentalist difference and the preference for the PT has become less stable over time, reflecting changes in the party’s base. These findings highlight the significant role of religious mobilization in Brazil and evidence historical roots in Brazilian public opinion that help to understand contemporary phenomena. By providing empirical evidence from the Brazilian context, the study contributes to the broader literature on political cleavages and suggests new directions for comparative research in other Latin American countries.

Legitimizing violence by protestors and the police in social protests: The case of Chile, 2019-2022

2024-06-04T10:12:03+02:00

Based on a theoretical discussion on the legitimation of violence, we postulate 4 hypotheses on the determinants of the legitimation of acts of violence perpetrated by protests and state agents in popular manifestations in Chile. We test them using polling data from national surveys conducted by the Center for Public Studies between 2019 and 2022. Marches enjoy more legitimation than other forms of violence by protestors. We find a reduction in the legitimation of violence by protests and an increase in the legitimation of violence by state agents in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2019. Those who trust less the Carabineros police and those who believe that the armed forces violated human rights legitimize more all forms of violence by protestors and less the violence by state agents. Right-wingers legitimize violence by state agents more, and leftwingers legitimize violence by protestors more and less that by state agents.

Why Emigration Is Costly for Incumbents: the Case of El Salvador

2024-11-29T10:33:51+01:00

El Salvador has the most popular president in Latin America, even as Salvadorans continue to migrate to the United States in high numbers. While emigration can serve as a safety valve that benefits incumbents, it also reflects a rejection of the status quo, producing a signal that negatively affects presidential popularity. This paper uses a survey of a nationally represented sample of Salvadorans with an embedded experiment. Respondents are primed on the number of apprehensions of Salvadorans attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, which highlights the costly decision to leave El Salvador. The survey results show that emigration reduces presidential approval and generates pessimism about the status quo. Information about migrant apprehensions also negatively affects prospective outlooks over one’s personal economy. The study underscores how emigration can negatively affect incumbents despite the long-term political and economic benefits emigration may bring.

Determinants of Affective Polarization in Mexico's 2018 Presidential Election

2024-12-19T14:10:29+01:00

Research on the determinants of affective polarization in Western democracies has blossomed in the past decade. But recent empirical and anecdotal evidence suggests that such phenomenon is not exclusive of advanced democracies as parties and candidates often appeal to voters on emotional or affective grounds, increasing levels of affective polarization in developing democracies as well. Yet, studies that analyze the causes of the aforementioned phenomenon outside developed democracies are scarce. This is surprising given that a number of scholars have already argued that elevated levels of affective polarization are a threat for the consolidation and survival of democracy. By focusing on Mexico, this paper contributes to a growing body of literature that analyzes the determinants of affective polarization outsied the U.S. and other Western democracies. Specifically, it tests three hypothesis that previous scholarship has put forth to explain affective polarization: (i) perceived ideological polarization, (ii) social sorting, and (iii) populist attitudes. Results indicate that perceived ideological polarization is a much stronger explanatory factor of affective polarization in Mexico than social sorting and populist attitudes.

María Esperanza Casullo y Harry Brown Araúz. El Populismo en América Central. La pieza que falta para comprender un fenómeno global. Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI Editores, 2023. 288 páginas. ISBN 978-987-801-276-6.

2023-11-11T10:30:57+01:00

Aldo Adrián Martínez Hernández. Partidos y sistemas de partidos en América Latina: Éxito electoral y cambio político (1988-2016). Toluca: Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, 2022. 437 páginas. ISBN 978-607-8818-16-7.

2024-05-05T12:49:10+02:00