Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

2024-03-24T17:57:17+01:00

The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.

Procedural fairness and political attitudes: unpacking the experiences of victims of intimate partner violence with the police

2024-05-10T12:53:19+02:00

What is the relationship between procedural fairness in encounters with the police and intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors’ attitudes? I argue that because of the emotional damage caused by victimization, survivors are especially attuned to the interpersonal treatment they receive when seeking help from specialized services (e. g., police). If this treatment is procedurally unfair, they might conclude that IPV laws are not effective and become less likely to report intentions to intervene by calling the police if they witness intimate partner violence. Relying on public opinion data from Brazil, I find that procedural fairness matters for survivors’ opinions about laws, but I found no relationship between procedural fairness and bystander intervention attitudes. I explore possible explanations for this non-finding with several additional analyses.

Legitimizing violence by protestors and the police in social protests: The case of Chile, 2019-2022

2024-06-04T10:12:03+02:00

Based on a theoretical discussion on the legitimation of violence, we postulate 4 hypotheses on the determinants of the legitimation of acts of violence perpetrated by protests and state agents in popular manifestations in Chile. We test them using polling data from national surveys conducted by the Center for Public Studies between 2019 and 2022. Marches enjoy more legitimation than other forms of violence by protestors. We find a reduction in the legitimation of violence by protests and an increase in the legitimation of violence by state agents in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2019. Those who trust less the Carabineros police and those who believe that the armed forces violated human rights legitimize more all forms of violence by protestors and less the violence by state agents. Right-wingers legitimize violence by state agents more, and leftwingers legitimize violence by protestors more and less that by state agents.

María Esperanza Casullo y Harry Brown Araúz. El Populismo en América Central. La pieza que falta para comprender un fenómeno global. Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI Editores, 2023. 288 páginas. ISBN 978-987-801-276-6.

2023-11-11T10:30:57+01:00

Aldo Adrián Martínez Hernández. Partidos y sistemas de partidos en América Latina: Éxito electoral y cambio político (1988-2016). Toluca: Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, 2022. 437 páginas. ISBN 978-607-8818-16-7.

2024-05-05T12:49:10+02:00