Between Digital Networks and Elite Discourses: Determinants of Trust in Electoral Bodies in Latin America
Abstract
Why do some people distrust electoral authorities even when their preferred candidates win? The literature on institutional trust has offered explanations from two main perspectives: the political–focused on institutional performance, the formal configuration of electoral bodies, and elite attacks—and the media—highlighting the role of information sources and digital networks as potential drivers of radicalization. Yet, these perspectives are rarely articulated within a single analytical framework. This article examines the determinants of trust in electoral authorities in Latin America using data from the 2024 Latinobarómetro. The findings demonstrate that when presidents publicly criticize electoral authorities, distrust increases significantly, particularly among individuals who already lack confidence in traditional media. The results underscore the importance of combining individual-level characteristics with political strategies in increasingly digitalized media environments to better understand patterns of distrust in electoral institutions.
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Allcott, H., & Gentzkow, M. (2017). Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2), 211-236. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.2.211
Anderson, C. (2005). Losers’ consent: Elections and democratic legitimacy. Oxford University Press, USA.
Avery, J. M. (2009). Videomalaise or Virtuous Circle?: The Influence of the News Media on Political Trust. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 14(4), 410-433. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161209336224
Barrientos, F. del M. (2011). Gestión electoral comparada y confianza en las elecciones en América Latina. Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública.
Bennett, W. L., & Iyengar, S. (2008). A New Era of Minimal Effects? The Changing Foundations of Political Communication. Journal of Communication, 58(4), 707-731. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2008.00410.x
Boulianne, S., Koc-Michalska, K., & Bimber, B. (2020). Right-wing populism, social media and echo chambers in Western democracies. New Media & Society, 22(4), 683-699. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819893983
Cappella, J. N., & Jamieson, K. H. (1996). News Frames, Political Cynicism, and Media Cynicism. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 546, 71-84.
Carreras, M., & İrepoğlu, Y. (2013). Trust in elections, vote buying, and turnout in Latin America. Special Symposium: The new research agenda on electoral integrity, 32(4), 609-619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.012
Castro Cornejo, R. (2024). Who Believes in Fraud in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election? Election Denialism, Partisan Motivated Reasoning, and Affective Polarization. Latin American Research Review, 59(3), 588-609. https://doi.org/10.1017/lar.2024.11
Catterberg, G. & Moreno, A. (2006). The Individual Bases of Political Trust: Trends in New and Established Democracies. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 18(1), 31-48. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edh081
Cella, L., Çınar, I., Stokes, S., & Uribe, A. (2025). Building Tolerance for Backsliding by Trash-Talking Democracy: Theory and Evidence From Mexico. Comparative Political Studies, 00104140251328024. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140251328024
Ceron, A. (2015). Internet, News, and Political Trust: The Difference Between Social Media and Online Media Outlets. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 20(5), 487-503. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcc4.12129
Chanley, V. A., Rudolph, T. J., & Rahn, W. R. (2000). “The origins and consequences of public trust in government.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 239-256. https://doi:10.1086/317987
Choi, D., Chun, S., Oh, H., Han, J., & Kwon, T. “Taekyoung”. (2020). Rumor Propagation is Amplified by Echo Chambers in Social Media. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 310. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57272-3
Chong, D., & Druckman, J. N. (2007). A Theory of Framing and Opinion Formation in Competitive Elite Environments. Journal of Communication, 57(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2006.00331.x
Cinelli, M., De Francisci Morales, G., Galeazzi, A., Quattrociocchi, W., & Starnini, M. (2021). The echo chamber effect on social media. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(9), e2023301118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023301118
Deibert, R. J. (2019). Three Painful Truths About Social Media. Journal of Democracy, 30(1), 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0002
DiPrete, T. A., & Forristal, J. D. (1994). Multilevel Models: Methods and Substance. Annual Review of Sociology, 20(1), 331-357. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.20.080194.001555
Druckman, J. N., & Leeper, T. J. (2012). Is Public Opinion Stable? Resolving the Micro/Macro Disconnect in Studies of Public Opinion. Daedalus, 141(4), 50-68. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00173
Flesken, A., & Hartl, J. (2018). Party Support, Values, and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity. Political Psychology, 39(3), 707-724. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12431
Gilens, M., & Murakawa, N. (2002). Elite cues and political decision-making. Research in Micropolitics, 6, 15-49.
Hanitzsch, T., Van Dalen, A., & Steindl, N. (2017). Caught in the Nexus: A Comparative and Longitudinal Analysis of Public Trust in the Press. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 23(1), 3-23. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161217740695
Hernández-Huerta, V., & Cantú, F. (2022). Public Distrust in Disputed Elections: Evidence from Latin America. British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 1923-1930. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123421000399
Hetherington, M. J. (2005). Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv301fkq
Hibbing, J. R., & Theiss-Morse, E. (2002). Stealth democracy: Americans’ beleifs about how government should work. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Kaufhold, K., Valenzuela, S., & De Zúñiga, H. G. (2010). Citizen journalism and democracy: How user-generated news use relates to political knowledge and participation. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 87(3-4), 515-529.
Kerr, N., & Lührmann, A. (2016). Public Trust in Elections: The Role of Election Administration Autonomy and Media Freedom. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2845187
Lenz, G. S. (2012). Follow the leader? How voters respond to politicians’ policies and performance. The University of Chicago Press.
Levi, M., & Stoker, L. (2000). Political trust and trustworthiness. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 475-507. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.475
Lupia, A., & McCubbins, M. D. (1998). The democratic dilemma: Can citizens learn what they need to know? Cambridge University Press.
Méndez De Hoyos, I., Grömping, M., Martínez I Coma, F., & Loza Otero, N. (2021). Integridad electoral y órganos electorales subnacionales en México: El papel de la imparcialidad. región y sociedad, 33, e1485. https://doi.org/10.22198/rys2021/33/1485
Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2001). What Are the Origins of Political Trust?: Testing Institutional and Cultural Theories in Post-communist Societies. Comparative Political Studies, 34(1), 30-62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414001034001002
Mitchelstein, E., Matassi, M., & Boczkowski, P. J. (2020). Minimal Effects, Maximum Panic: Social Media and Democracy in Latin America. Social Media + Society, 6(4), 205630512098445. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305120984452
Monsiváis, A. (2022). Perception of Electoral Integrity, Trust in Elections, and the Conditional Role of the Understanding of Democracy: Addressing the “Mexican Paradox”. Colombia Internacional, 110, 89-121. https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint110.2022.04
Monsiváis, A. (2023). Happy winners, sore partisans? Political trust, partisanship, and the populist assault on electoral integrity in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(1), 72-95.
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2024). Desconfianza electoral y polarización política en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 36, 55-78.
Newton, K. (2001). Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy. International Political Science Review, 22(2), 201-214. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512101222004
Newton, K., & Norris, P. (2000). Confidence in Public Institutions: Faith, Culture, or Performance? En S. Pharr & R. Putnam, Disaffected Democracies: What’s Troubling the Trilateral Countries? Princeton University Press.
Nilsson, A. (2024). Antidemocratic tendencies on the left, the right, and beyond: A critical review of the theory and measurement of left‐wing authoritarianism. Political Psychology, 45(4), 693-708. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12951
Norris, P. (2011). A Virtuous Circle: Political Communications in Postindustrial Societies (1a ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Norris, P. (2014). Why electoral integrity matters. Cambridge University Press.
Norris, P. (2017). Strengthening Electoral Integrity. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107280656
Ortega Ortiz, R. Y., & Somuano, M. F. (2016). Confianza y cambio político en México: Contiendas elecstorales y el IFE. El Colegio de México.
Papaioannou, K., Pantazi, M., & Van Prooijen, J. (2023). Is democracy under threat? Why belief in conspiracy theories predicts autocratic attitudes. European Journal of Social Psychology, 53(5), 846-856. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2939
Prior, M. (2008). Post-broadcast democracy: How media choice increases inequality in political involvement and polarizes elections (Reprint). Cambridge University Press.
Peugh, J. L. (2010). A practical guide to multilevel modeling. Journal of School Psychology, 48(1), 85-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsp.2009.09.002
Ramírez, M. D. (2009). “The dynamics of partisan conflict on congressional approval”. American Journal of Political Science, 53(3), 681-694. https://doi:10.1111/ajps.2009.53.issue-3
Rau, E. G., & Stokes, S. (s. f.). Income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the twenty-first century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(1), e2422543121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2422543121
Rosas, G. (2010). Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities: Evidence from Latin America. Electoral Studies, 29(1), 74-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2009.09.006
Tsfati, Y., & Ariely, G. (2014). Individual and Contextual Correlates of Trust in Media Across 44 Countries. Communication Research, 41(6), 760-782. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650213485972
Tucker, J., Guess, A., Barbera, P., Vaccari, C., Siegel, A., Sanovich, S., Stukal, D., & Nyhan, B. (2018). Social Media, Political Polarization, and Political Disinformation: A Review of the Scientific Literature. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3144139
Valenzuela, S., Muñiz, C., & Santos, M. (2022). Social Media and Belief in Misinformation in Mexico: A Case of Maximal Panic, Minimal Effects? The International Journal of Press/Politics, 194016122210889. https://doi.org/10.1177/19401612221088988
Zaller, J. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press.
Zmerli, S., & Newton, K. (2008). Social Trust and Attitudes Toward Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 706-724. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn054
Anderson, C. (2005). Losers’ consent: Elections and democratic legitimacy. Oxford University Press, USA.
Avery, J. M. (2009). Videomalaise or Virtuous Circle?: The Influence of the News Media on Political Trust. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 14(4), 410-433. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161209336224
Barrientos, F. del M. (2011). Gestión electoral comparada y confianza en las elecciones en América Latina. Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública.
Bennett, W. L., & Iyengar, S. (2008). A New Era of Minimal Effects? The Changing Foundations of Political Communication. Journal of Communication, 58(4), 707-731. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2008.00410.x
Boulianne, S., Koc-Michalska, K., & Bimber, B. (2020). Right-wing populism, social media and echo chambers in Western democracies. New Media & Society, 22(4), 683-699. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819893983
Cappella, J. N., & Jamieson, K. H. (1996). News Frames, Political Cynicism, and Media Cynicism. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 546, 71-84.
Carreras, M., & İrepoğlu, Y. (2013). Trust in elections, vote buying, and turnout in Latin America. Special Symposium: The new research agenda on electoral integrity, 32(4), 609-619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.012
Castro Cornejo, R. (2024). Who Believes in Fraud in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election? Election Denialism, Partisan Motivated Reasoning, and Affective Polarization. Latin American Research Review, 59(3), 588-609. https://doi.org/10.1017/lar.2024.11
Catterberg, G. & Moreno, A. (2006). The Individual Bases of Political Trust: Trends in New and Established Democracies. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 18(1), 31-48. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edh081
Cella, L., Çınar, I., Stokes, S., & Uribe, A. (2025). Building Tolerance for Backsliding by Trash-Talking Democracy: Theory and Evidence From Mexico. Comparative Political Studies, 00104140251328024. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140251328024
Ceron, A. (2015). Internet, News, and Political Trust: The Difference Between Social Media and Online Media Outlets. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 20(5), 487-503. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcc4.12129
Chanley, V. A., Rudolph, T. J., & Rahn, W. R. (2000). “The origins and consequences of public trust in government.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 239-256. https://doi:10.1086/317987
Choi, D., Chun, S., Oh, H., Han, J., & Kwon, T. “Taekyoung”. (2020). Rumor Propagation is Amplified by Echo Chambers in Social Media. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 310. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57272-3
Chong, D., & Druckman, J. N. (2007). A Theory of Framing and Opinion Formation in Competitive Elite Environments. Journal of Communication, 57(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2006.00331.x
Cinelli, M., De Francisci Morales, G., Galeazzi, A., Quattrociocchi, W., & Starnini, M. (2021). The echo chamber effect on social media. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(9), e2023301118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023301118
Deibert, R. J. (2019). Three Painful Truths About Social Media. Journal of Democracy, 30(1), 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0002
DiPrete, T. A., & Forristal, J. D. (1994). Multilevel Models: Methods and Substance. Annual Review of Sociology, 20(1), 331-357. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.20.080194.001555
Druckman, J. N., & Leeper, T. J. (2012). Is Public Opinion Stable? Resolving the Micro/Macro Disconnect in Studies of Public Opinion. Daedalus, 141(4), 50-68. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00173
Flesken, A., & Hartl, J. (2018). Party Support, Values, and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity. Political Psychology, 39(3), 707-724. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12431
Gilens, M., & Murakawa, N. (2002). Elite cues and political decision-making. Research in Micropolitics, 6, 15-49.
Hanitzsch, T., Van Dalen, A., & Steindl, N. (2017). Caught in the Nexus: A Comparative and Longitudinal Analysis of Public Trust in the Press. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 23(1), 3-23. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161217740695
Hernández-Huerta, V., & Cantú, F. (2022). Public Distrust in Disputed Elections: Evidence from Latin America. British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 1923-1930. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123421000399
Hetherington, M. J. (2005). Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv301fkq
Hibbing, J. R., & Theiss-Morse, E. (2002). Stealth democracy: Americans’ beleifs about how government should work. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Kaufhold, K., Valenzuela, S., & De Zúñiga, H. G. (2010). Citizen journalism and democracy: How user-generated news use relates to political knowledge and participation. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 87(3-4), 515-529.
Kerr, N., & Lührmann, A. (2016). Public Trust in Elections: The Role of Election Administration Autonomy and Media Freedom. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2845187
Lenz, G. S. (2012). Follow the leader? How voters respond to politicians’ policies and performance. The University of Chicago Press.
Levi, M., & Stoker, L. (2000). Political trust and trustworthiness. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 475-507. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.475
Lupia, A., & McCubbins, M. D. (1998). The democratic dilemma: Can citizens learn what they need to know? Cambridge University Press.
Méndez De Hoyos, I., Grömping, M., Martínez I Coma, F., & Loza Otero, N. (2021). Integridad electoral y órganos electorales subnacionales en México: El papel de la imparcialidad. región y sociedad, 33, e1485. https://doi.org/10.22198/rys2021/33/1485
Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2001). What Are the Origins of Political Trust?: Testing Institutional and Cultural Theories in Post-communist Societies. Comparative Political Studies, 34(1), 30-62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414001034001002
Mitchelstein, E., Matassi, M., & Boczkowski, P. J. (2020). Minimal Effects, Maximum Panic: Social Media and Democracy in Latin America. Social Media + Society, 6(4), 205630512098445. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305120984452
Monsiváis, A. (2022). Perception of Electoral Integrity, Trust in Elections, and the Conditional Role of the Understanding of Democracy: Addressing the “Mexican Paradox”. Colombia Internacional, 110, 89-121. https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint110.2022.04
Monsiváis, A. (2023). Happy winners, sore partisans? Political trust, partisanship, and the populist assault on electoral integrity in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(1), 72-95.
Monsiváis-Carrillo, A. (2024). Desconfianza electoral y polarización política en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 36, 55-78.
Newton, K. (2001). Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy. International Political Science Review, 22(2), 201-214. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512101222004
Newton, K., & Norris, P. (2000). Confidence in Public Institutions: Faith, Culture, or Performance? En S. Pharr & R. Putnam, Disaffected Democracies: What’s Troubling the Trilateral Countries? Princeton University Press.
Nilsson, A. (2024). Antidemocratic tendencies on the left, the right, and beyond: A critical review of the theory and measurement of left‐wing authoritarianism. Political Psychology, 45(4), 693-708. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12951
Norris, P. (2011). A Virtuous Circle: Political Communications in Postindustrial Societies (1a ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Norris, P. (2014). Why electoral integrity matters. Cambridge University Press.
Norris, P. (2017). Strengthening Electoral Integrity. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107280656
Ortega Ortiz, R. Y., & Somuano, M. F. (2016). Confianza y cambio político en México: Contiendas elecstorales y el IFE. El Colegio de México.
Papaioannou, K., Pantazi, M., & Van Prooijen, J. (2023). Is democracy under threat? Why belief in conspiracy theories predicts autocratic attitudes. European Journal of Social Psychology, 53(5), 846-856. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2939
Prior, M. (2008). Post-broadcast democracy: How media choice increases inequality in political involvement and polarizes elections (Reprint). Cambridge University Press.
Peugh, J. L. (2010). A practical guide to multilevel modeling. Journal of School Psychology, 48(1), 85-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsp.2009.09.002
Ramírez, M. D. (2009). “The dynamics of partisan conflict on congressional approval”. American Journal of Political Science, 53(3), 681-694. https://doi:10.1111/ajps.2009.53.issue-3
Rau, E. G., & Stokes, S. (s. f.). Income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the twenty-first century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(1), e2422543121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2422543121
Rosas, G. (2010). Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities: Evidence from Latin America. Electoral Studies, 29(1), 74-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2009.09.006
Tsfati, Y., & Ariely, G. (2014). Individual and Contextual Correlates of Trust in Media Across 44 Countries. Communication Research, 41(6), 760-782. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650213485972
Tucker, J., Guess, A., Barbera, P., Vaccari, C., Siegel, A., Sanovich, S., Stukal, D., & Nyhan, B. (2018). Social Media, Political Polarization, and Political Disinformation: A Review of the Scientific Literature. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3144139
Valenzuela, S., Muñiz, C., & Santos, M. (2022). Social Media and Belief in Misinformation in Mexico: A Case of Maximal Panic, Minimal Effects? The International Journal of Press/Politics, 194016122210889. https://doi.org/10.1177/19401612221088988
Zaller, J. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press.
Zmerli, S., & Newton, K. (2008). Social Trust and Attitudes Toward Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 706-724. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn054
Salazar Rebolledo, G., & Muñoz Ayora, J. S. (2026). Between Digital Networks and Elite Discourses: Determinants of Trust in Electoral Bodies in Latin America. Revista Latinoamericana De Opinión Pública, 15, e32300. https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.32300
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