The Conflicting Cue Effect: Confusing Messages and the Limits of Elite Influence in Brazil’s Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign
Abstract
How do citizens respond when political leaders and their governments send conflicting messages during a public health crisis? We conducted a survey-based information experiment with 857 unvaccinated Brazilians in March 2021, shortly after the start of the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. Participants were randomly exposed to cues about two vaccines—Coronavac and Astrazeneca—emphasizing their country of origin, regulatory approval, and federal government procurement. Results show that political preference shaped interpretation: among supporters of the then President Jair Bolsonaro, willingness to vaccinate decreased when the Chinese vaccine (which Bolsonaro had criticized) was mentioned. However, when information also included government approval and procurement, this negative effect disappeared, and responses became statistically indistinguishable from the control group—a pattern we refer to as the conflicting cue effect. Among opponents, information linked to the Bolsonaro administration triggered a backfire effect, lowering willingness to vaccinate with Astrazeneca. These findings highlight how, in contrast to models that assume consistent elite influence, real-world political communication often involves contradictory signals that produce asymmetric and sometimes unintended responses. By examining how citizens interpret these conflicting cues, the study contributes new evidence on the limits of elite influence in polarized contexts.
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