La supervivencia de la democracia en América Latina (1945-2005)

Aníbal PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, Scott MAINWARING

Resumen


¿Por qué las democracias sobreviven o se quiebran? En este trabajo retomamos esta clásica pregunta haciendo foco en América Latina entre 1945 y 2005. Nuestro argumento difiere de los resultados de los estudios cuantitativos y de buena parte de los análisis cualitativos sobre supervivencia y quiebra de los regímenes democráticos. Sostenemos que las variables estructurales como el grado de desarrollo y de desigualdad no han tenido mayor impacto en la supervivencia de la democracia en América Latina. De la misma manera, el desempeño de la economía tampoco ha tenido una incidencia importante en la supervivencia de los regímenes competitivos, contrariamente a lo que afirma una parte de la literatura sobre el tema. En cambio, nos centramos en el entorno político regional y en las preferencias normativas de los actores sobre la democracia y la dictadura, y en su moderación o radicalismo político. Se sostiene que: 1) un mayor nivel de desarrollo económico no aumentó la probabilidad de supervivencia democrática en América Latina durante el período analizado; 2) si los actores tienen una preferencia normativa a favor de la democracia, es más probable que sobreviva; y 3) la moderación política contribuye a la supervivencia de la democracia.

Palabras clave


democracia; dictadura; actores políticos; preferencias normativas; radicalismo

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14201/alh201468139168





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